On November 17, the lithium carbonate futures main contract (2601) surged strongly, opening at 87,700 yuan/ton and climbing steadily to hit the daily limit of 95,200 yuan/ton before closing with a 9% gain. Prices have rebounded recently, with the main contract rising nearly 17% since early November. By November 18, futures surged further, briefly touching 96,920 yuan/ton.
Analysts attribute the rally to sustained supply shortages and inventory drawdowns. Social inventories have declined for 13 consecutive weeks since mid-August, totaling a 22,000-ton reduction. Market sentiment was further boosted by optimistic industry commentary over the weekend.
The battery sector mirrored the rally, with Chengxin Lithium Group (002240.SZ) and Youngy Co.,Ltd. (002192.SZ) hitting the 10% upside limit, while Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466.SZ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.,Ltd. (002756.SZ) gained nearly 9%. Spot prices for premium lithium carbonate rose to 90,500–90,900 yuan/ton, with battery-grade material at 89,800–90,900 yuan/ton, up 3,600 yuan from the previous session.
Research notes that short-term supply-demand imbalances, growing energy storage demand, and industry optimization are driving prices. Energy storage has emerged as a key growth area, replacing electric vehicle batteries as the primary demand driver.
Market dynamics show accelerated inventory drawdowns in November, with limited supply growth. Chile’s lithium carbonate exports to China rose 46% month-on-month to 16,200 tons in October. Demand from major cathode materials increased 4% monthly to 115,000 tons.
At an industry summit, Ganfeng Lithium’s chairman projected 2026 demand growth of 30% (1.9 million tons), with supply expanding by 250,000 tons. He warned prices could exceed 150,000–200,000 yuan/ton if demand outpaces 30% growth.
Open interest has surged, with the main contract adding 72,000 lots weekly and 404,000 lots monthly. Recent data shows another 46,000-lot increase in the main contract.
Import patterns shifted in September, with China’s spodumene imports up 14.7% monthly to 710,600 tons. Australia led with 347,000 tons (+64.1% MoM), while South Africa’s shipments doubled to 109,000 tons. Zimbabwe’s exports fell 7.8% to 109,000 tons.
Port and warehouse inventories dropped 32,000 tons weekly to 153,000 tons, with sellable stocks down 14,000 tons to 86,000 tons. Global lithium concentrate prices rose to $1,080/ton (Australia), $1,060/ton (Brazil), and $1,015/ton (Zimbabwe).
Domestic lithium carbonate consumption hit 135,000+ tons in November, up over 40% year-on-year. Battery inventory reductions since May totaled 28.9GWh (15.8GWh for EV batteries, 13.1GWh for storage), accelerating upstream demand transmission.
Key watchpoints include demand sustainability, the delayed restart of the Jianxiawo mine, spot trading volumes (which weakened above 85,000 yuan/ton), and capital flows toward solid-state batteries and energy storage. Analysts caution about positioning risks given record-high open interest but maintain a bullish outlook amid tight 2025 supply-demand balances and speculative interest.
Long-term, lithium carbonate has exited its price bottom, supported by rising global energy costs and robust energy storage orders. Prices are expected to remain firm absent demand slowdowns.
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