Wanlian Securities released a research report stating that the 2026 New Year's Day box office period has created a favorable start for the full-year film market. Leading IP sequels such as "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" demonstrated robust and sustained box office power, with a notably high market concentration. The report recommends focusing on film production companies possessing strong IP development capabilities and long-term operational expertise, as well as leading cinema chain operators. Wanlian Securities' primary viewpoints are outlined below.
The New Year's Day box office period exceeded 700 million yuan, marking a strong commencement for the new year. Due to holiday adjustments, the 2026 New Year's Day period was extended to three days (January 1st to January 3rd), representing a significant expansion compared to the single-day period in 2025. While it does not match the scale of major holiday periods like National Day or the Spring Festival, market attention remained high. During this period, two major sequel films, which had already been screening for several days, led the box office charts driven by their powerful IP appeal. Concurrently, several newly released light comedies, romance films, and thrillers catered to the diverse viewing preferences of the holiday audience. According to data from Lighthouse Professional, the 2026 New Year's Day period (January 1st to January 3rd) grossed 740 million yuan in ticket sales, a substantial increase of 61.01% compared to the same period last year. Box office revenue on New Year's Day itself (January 1st) reached 338 million yuan, also rising by 10.50% year-on-year.
A detailed breakdown of the data shows that the total number of screenings during the New Year's Day period reached 1.417 million sessions. Screenings on New Year's Day itself increased by 4.89% year-on-year and surged 24.30% compared to the previous day to 502,300 sessions. The total number of moviegoers reached 18.6401 million, with significant daily fluctuations; attendance on New Year's Day rose 14.20% year-on-year and jumped 58.08% from the previous day to 8.5172 million admissions. The average ticket price remained stable throughout the period at 39.7 yuan, 39.6 yuan, and 39.9 yuan respectively. Compared to New Year's Day the previous year, the average ticket price on the first day saw a slight decrease of 3.17%. Overall, the strong box office performance during the New Year's Day period was primarily driven by a significant increase in moviegoer attendance. This can be attributed to the three-day holiday window created by the adjusted schedule, which provided more ample opportunities for consumption. Furthermore, the period was supported by popular IP sequels that maintained audience interest, while a variety of new mid-to-small-budget films fitting the festive atmosphere enriched viewer choices. The combination of an extended timeframe and diverse content supply resulted in a clear year-on-year growth for the market.
Leading IP sequels demonstrated stable and resilient performance, showing strong staying power. From an overall perspective, the New Year's Day box office was primarily driven by sequel films based on major IPs, with a noticeable concentration in revenue. Examining individual film performances, "Zootopia 2," despite having been released for several days, ranked first with a box office of 220 million yuan, accounting for 29.7% of the total. Its established IP influence and stable audience base underpinned its strong showing, making it the core driver of the overall box office. "Avatar 3," continuing its path of high-quality visual effects and science fiction, maintained strong box office resilience even two weeks after its release, securing second place with 183 million yuan, representing a 24.8% share. Among the films released during the period, "匿杀" (literal translation: Concealed Kill), a thriller with strong topical appeal, performed notably well, earning 126 million yuan to rank third.
Risk factors include films failing to meet expectations in terms of word-of-mouth and quality; risks associated with film release delays; and risks related to film reputation.
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