US President Donald Trump indicated there have been "several positive developments" in negotiations with Iran, expressing optimism about peace talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. However, he cautioned that if an agreement is not reached before the ceasefire expires this Wednesday, the US may not extend the truce period. A few hours prior, following a US-brokered temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, Iran temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz. However, subsequent statements from both sides were contradictory, leaving significant uncertainty about when shipping through this global energy artery can fully return to normal. It remains unclear whether direct talks will be held this weekend. While returning to Washington from Phoenix, Arizona, Trump told reporters, "Developments regarding Iran in the Middle East are progressing very smoothly. We will begin negotiations this weekend, and I anticipate everything will move forward positively. Many issues have already been discussed and consensus has been reached." He emphasized that there is only one core, non-negotiable principle: Iran must never possess nuclear weapons, a point that supersedes all other matters. Simultaneously, Trump issued a stern warning: unless a long-term agreement to end the conflict is finalized before the Wednesday ceasefire deadline, the US will terminate the US-Iran truce. Additionally, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in effect. The current US-Iran conflict began with a joint US-Israeli military strike on February 28th, which has resulted in thousands of casualties. Coupled with the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have surged significantly. The strait previously handled approximately one-fifth of global crude oil trade. Trump informed Reuters that a new round of direct US-Iran talks is highly likely this weekend. However, several diplomats noted that the possibility of a face-to-face meeting is low, considering logistical challenges in preparing the originally proposed venue, Islamabad, Pakistan. As of Saturday morning, there were no visible signs of preparation for talks in the Pakistani capital. A high-level meeting held there last weekend, the highest-level US-Iran contact since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, ultimately failed to produce any agreement. Pakistan's chief mediator, Army Chief General Asim Munir, has been conducting mediation talks in Tehran since Wednesday. A Pakistani source familiar with the mediation efforts stated that a US-Iran meeting could potentially lead to an initial memorandum of understanding, with a comprehensive peace agreement to be finalized within the subsequent 60 days. The situation regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains chaotic, with contradictory statements from various parties. Conflicting factors persist: Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed again unless the US naval blockade is lifted. Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi officially announced that the strait would be fully open to all commercial vessels during the 10-day temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which was agreed upon on Thursday. This ceasefire followed Israel's incursion into Lebanon after Iran's ally Hezbollah entered the conflict. Shipping data showed that around 20 vessels of various types, including container ships, bulk carriers, and tankers, were headed towards the Strait of Hormuz on Friday evening, but the vast majority turned back mid-journey for reasons that are still unclear. The convoy included three container ships belonging to French shipping group CMA CGM, which declined to comment. According to ship tracking data, the cruise ship Celestyal Discovery, which was previously stranded in Dubai, successfully transited the strait on Saturday morning, heading towards Oman. Iranian authorities have stipulated that all transiting vessels must coordinate and register with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a requirement that did not exist before the conflict. Iranian state television, citing a defense ministry statement, said that military and affiliated vessels belonging to "hostile forces" such as the US and Israel remain prohibited from passage. Major shipping companies have indicated that they will only schedule vessels to enter the Gulf shipping lanes after Iran provides further clarification on navigation details and clears the risk of naval mines. The US Navy has issued a warning to shipping operators, stating that mine hazards in some parts of the waterway have not been fully identified and advising vessels to avoid the relevant sea areas if possible. Negotiations concerning Iran's nuclear program remain at an impasse. There is currently no clear plan for how the US and Iran will resolve the core sticking point of the Iranian nuclear issue. Iran maintains its position that it has the legitimate right to a peaceful civilian nuclear program. Trump stated that the US would remove Iran's entire stockpile of enriched uranium. In response, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei explicitly stated on state television that Iran would absolutely not transfer its nuclear materials out of the country. Another senior Iranian official revealed that Tehran hopes to reach a preliminary agreement within the coming days. Buoyed by news of the potential reopening of the strait, international oil prices fell by approximately 10% on Friday, while global stock markets rose. According to British sources, following a video conference involving multiple countries on Friday, more than ten nations expressed willingness to join an international护航 mission to secure shipping in the Strait of Hormuz once conditions permit. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the two sides have reached some consensus regarding the unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian assets held overseas, but did not provide a specific timeline. Conversely, Trump stated during a rally speech in Arizona the same day that the agreement would not involve any form of fund transfers or asset unfreezing. Informed sources disclosed that during the previous negotiations, the US proposed a comprehensive 20-year suspension of Iranian nuclear activities, while Iran agreed only to a suspension of 3 to 5 years. Two Iranian sources indicated that signs of compromise have emerged in the talks, potentially involving the disposition of part of Iran's nuclear material stockpile. In a telephone interview with Reuters, Trump outlined the US proposal for subsequent handling of nuclear materials: the US would not act hastily but would coordinate with Iran for a gradual process, using large-scale equipment to extract and transport the materials entirely to the United States. Despite Trump's optimism, Iranian sources stated that numerous differences remain to be resolved before a preliminary agreement can be reached. Senior Iranian clerics maintained a tough stance during Friday prayers. Cleric Ahmad Khatami said, "The Iranian people will never negotiate from a position of humiliation."
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