Industry insiders surveyed believe the likelihood of a nationwide policy is low. The A-share real estate sector has been heating up, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limit. As of the midday close on September 23, the real estate sector led the gains, with 5i5j Holding Group Co.,Ltd. (000560.SZ) and Beijing Huayuan Xinhang Holding Co.,Ltd. (600743.SH) recording three consecutive limit-up sessions, while China Vanke Co.,Ltd. (000002.SZ), Shenzhen Worldunion Group Incorporated (002285.SZ), China Enterprise Company Limited (600675.SH), and Deluxe Family Co.,Ltd. (600503.SH) also briefly hit their daily limits during trading.
Beyond the generally low valuations of property stocks, market excitement has been fueled by rumors of a national interest subsidy policy. Market chatter suggests a nationwide subsidy program could be introduced, with the Ministry of Finance covering 20-50 basis points and local governments adding 20-50 basis points, potentially reaching a total subsidy of up to 100 basis points and pushing first-home mortgage rates down to around 2%. There is even speculation that a mortgage subsidy, totaling 100 billion yuan with a 20-basis-point reduction targeting first homes, could be implemented soon.
In response to these rumors, several brokerage analysts covering the real estate sector argue that the likelihood of a nationwide subsidy policy being implemented is slim. One analyst noted, "At the national level, extending loan terms essentially achieves the same interest savings as subsidies or rate cuts." This is not the first time such rumors have circulated—similar reports surfaced in the market back in July and August.
Local subsidy policies, however, have been rolling out across multiple regions this year. According to preliminary statistics from China Index Academy, more than 20 areas nationwide have introduced or optimized housing loan subsidy policies since 2026. Shanghai's "820 Policy" focuses on trade-in subsidies, offering a 1% subsidy on total loan amounts with a cap of 50,000 yuan per property. Meanwhile, Chengdu's new policy provides a provident fund loan interest subsidy, covering 20% of interest for one year, with a maximum subsidy of 25,000 yuan.
China Index Academy notes that existing subsidy policies generally fall into three categories: proportional subsidies based on loan amounts, proportional subsidies based on repayment interest, and using provident funds to subsidize commercial loans. Housing loan subsidy policies represent one of the local-level measures to refine support for housing consumption, and it is expected that more cities will follow suit, deepening the scope of mortgage subsidies at the local level.
The institution projects that future subsidy policies will integrate more closely with livelihood scenarios, such as combining with marriage and childbearing support, talent attraction programs, and housing trade-in initiatives. By clearly defining eligible household ranges and targeting specific buyer groups, these policies aim to more precisely unlock刚性 and improvement-oriented housing demand. Additionally, more cities will leverage a combination of policy tools—including subsidies, grants, provident funds, and tax incentives—to reduce the overall homeownership costs for buyers.
Comments