Is the recent surge in broad-based ETF volume driven by "national team" funds and insurance capital?
While the Shanghai Composite Index has lost four key levels this month, capital is accelerating its entry into the market. From July 13th to 17th, over 230 billion yuan flowed into the market via ETFs, with single-day net inflows setting a new annual record three times in one week. Broad-based ETFs alone attracted 156.1 billion yuan, marking another strong week of inflows. Notably, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF saw a weekly inflow of 21.4 billion yuan, bringing its size close to 100 billion yuan and reclaiming its position as the largest ETF. It is worth noting that on the 17th, the total trading volume of broad-based ETFs across the market exceeded 151.624 billion yuan, surpassing the trading level seen on April 7th last year when the "national team" announced its intention to increase holdings. Concurrently, the rapid rise and subsequent relinquishment of the top spot by gold ETFs and money market ETFs also reflect the dramatic swings in risk appetite within just two weeks.
At this juncture, Wang Li, a senior macro strategy researcher at Great Wall Fund, stated that the recent market volatility is a severe shakeout primarily triggered by deleveraging on the trading side, concerns over internal and external liquidity, and the amplification effect of crowded structures, but it does not signify the end of industrial and profit fundamentals. Short-term high volatility still needs to be tolerated while waiting for trading structures and volatility signals to recover. "After the short-term emotional sell-off, the market will return to fundamental expectations; there is no need for excessive pessimism."
WanJia Fund analyzed from a liquidity perspective, noting that recent trading volumes in broad-based ETFs have shown clear signs of expansion, with incremental capital exhibiting characteristics of bottom-fishing, suggesting that the room for further significant market declines is likely limited.
Broad-Based ETFs See Another Week of Strong Inflows
Amidst intense market turbulence, the Shanghai Composite Index successively fell below the 4100 and 4000 points levels over the past month and breached the 3800-point defense line on July 17th, hitting an intraday low of 3745.17 points, the lowest since October of last year. By the close, the three major A-share indices had all fallen over 3%, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3764.15 points, representing a year-to-date return of -5.16%.
Despite the subdued market sentiment, the pace of capital entering through ETFs has noticeably accelerated. Wind data shows that in the single week from July 13th to 17th, ETFs across the entire market saw a combined net inflow of 230.9 billion yuan. During this period, single-day net inflows hit a new annual high three times, with a net inflow exceeding 83.1 billion yuan on the 17th, even reaching a new high for the past year.
Among these, equity ETFs across the market collectively received a net inflow of 205.25 billion yuan for the week, accounting for 88.88% of the total inflow. This marks the tenth consecutive trading day of net inflows for equity ETFs, with daily net inflows consistently exceeding 10 billion yuan, and the intensity of capital entry on July 17th climbing to a yearly peak.
Broad-based ETFs, favored by long-term capital represented by the "national team," became the absolute main force attracting funds this time. Specifically, broad-based ETFs saw net subscription funds exceeding 156.1 billion yuan for the week, with 64.693 billion yuan flowing in on the 17th alone. Within this, capital primarily targeted ETFs tracking indices such as the CSI 300, STAR 50, and CSI 500.
For instance, the CSI 300 ETF, which had previously experienced continuous outflows, saw a strong reversal with a weekly net inflow of nearly 40 billion yuan, contributing 18.1 billion yuan in incremental funds on the 17th alone. The concentration effect of funds in leading products was particularly evident. The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF saw a net inflow of 21.416 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among all ETFs. Notably, its net inflow of 9.327 billion yuan on the 17th set a new single-day high for the past year. Driven by this, the fund's latest size reached 99.521 billion yuan, successfully regaining its position as the largest ETF in the market.
Furthermore, the CSI 1000 was also a key focus for capital allocation this round, receiving net subscriptions exceeding 25.6 billion yuan for the week. ETFs tracking the STAR 50, CSI 500, CSI A500, ChiNext Index, and Shanghai Composite Index also saw over 10 billion yuan each in bottom-fishing capital. Specifically, products like the Southern CSI 1000 ETF, Southern CSI 500 ETF, E Fund ChiNext ETF, and ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF all saw weekly net inflows exceeding 11 billion yuan. Meanwhile, CSI 300 ETFs under major institutions like E Fund, Harvest Fund, and ChinaAMC simultaneously received capital additions ranging from 3.3 billion to 6.6 billion yuan.
Accompanying the large capital inflows, the trading volume of related broad-based ETFs also expanded significantly. According to statistics, on July 17th, the total trading volume of broad-based ETFs across the market exceeded 151.624 billion yuan, a 64% increase from the previous day. Among these, over 86% of broad-based ETFs saw an increase in trading volume, with 27 products recording single-day trading volumes exceeding 1 billion yuan.
Taking the CSI 300 ETF as an example, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF had a trading volume of 14.649 billion yuan that day, an 85% increase from the previous day's 7.9 billion yuan, reaching its highest level since February this year. The other three larger CSI 300 ETFs showed similar situations, with single-day trading volumes all exceeding 2.3 billion yuan, representing increases ranging from 117% to 252% compared to the previous day, indicating a significant surge in trading activity.
Other products with trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan on the 17th included the E Fund ChiNext ETF and the ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF, with trading volumes of 15.427 billion yuan and 14.287 billion yuan respectively. The former doubled compared to the previous day, while the latter saw an increase of nearly 60%. Additionally, products tracking indices like the CSI A500 ETF, ChiNext ETF, and CSI 800 ETF also saw their trading volumes double.
Who is the Mysterious Capital?
The sharp increase in trading volume and sustained rise in net inflows of broad-based ETFs have sparked widespread discussion about major capital entering the market to provide support. Historical experience suggests that large, concentrated net inflows into broad-based ETFs often correspond to阶段性 market bottom areas.
Taking the market conditions of April last year as an example, the Shanghai Composite Index fell over 7% due to impacts such as overseas tariff policies. At that time, "national team" entities including Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Reform Holdings announced their intention to increase ETF holdings. On April 7th, 2025, over 57 billion yuan flowed into broad-based ETFs, with the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF alone receiving a net inflow of 17.564 billion yuan. Simultaneously, the daily trading volume reached nearly 137 billion yuan, a 156% increase from the previous trading day.
However, compared to that period, there are some differences in aspects like the magnitude of the current ETF trading volume expansion. Therefore, opinions within the industry vary on whether this represents "national team" operations to stabilize the market.
A fund industry professional believes that, judging from the timing of operations, target selection, capital scale, and operational patterns, "national team" funds and insurance capital are likely the most probable sources of this broad-based ETF volume expansion. The former exhibits more明显的 "market-supporting" characteristics, while the latter reflects more of a medium-to-long-term allocation logic.
A equity investment and research professional in North China informed that this round of large-scale capital entering against the trend may possess certain characteristics of market-supporting operations. Currently, insurance capital's equity allocations are largely in place, leaving limited room for further increases, and they would currently be more inclined towards selective stock picking or customized strategies.
"Previously, net outflows from broad-based ETFs, to some extent, slowed the overall market's upward trajectory. Given that broad-based ETFs themselves play a role in stabilizing the market, if the market experiences adjustments, it is possible that relevant parties may engage in contrarian布局, which aligns with the core logic of market stabilization," the professional said.
It is worth noting that institutional bottom-fishing is not solely focused on broad-based ETFs; actions to precisely布局细分 sectors are also quite clear. For example, the deeply corrected科创芯片 sector welcomed clear incremental capital inflows. Wind data shows that the STAR Chip ETF received nearly 6.4 billion yuan in net inflows over the past week, while the STAR Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Communication Equipment, and Semiconductor Materials & Equipment ETFs同期 welcomed over 3 billion yuan in additional allocations.
Furthermore, some ETFs in stable,避险 directions like bonds, gold, and money markets also attracted considerable capital favor this month. Due to the加快调仓节奏 of capital among different broad-based indices, the top spot in terms of overall ETF size has changed hands three times this month. For instance, on July 3rd, the Hua An Gold ETF, with a size of 90.1 billion yuan, surpassed the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF to become the largest ETF. On the 13th, the Yinhua Money Fund ETF A took the top spot with 89.912 billion yuan, and now the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF has regained the number one position.
Short-Term High Volatility May Persist
Does the集结 of capital against the trend indicate that a market bottom is near? Interviewed institutions generally believe that this round of market adjustment is not due to deteriorating fundamentals but rather the release of systemic risks叠加 by multiple short-term negative factors. The current market is in a window period of external情绪扰动 and internal structural rebalancing. They suggest focusing短 term on the承接力度 of broad-based ETFs and policy signals aimed at stabilizing expectations.
"This round of adjustment is a release of systemic risk triggered by the共振 of global tech stock sell-offs, high-leverage capital stampedes, and market panic," said Long Jiangwei, portfolio manager of the Hengsheng Qianhai High-end Manufacturing Hybrid Fund. Under the多重打击 of uncertainty传导 from外围 markets,集中兑现 of liquidity and high拥挤度, and反复横跳 in the AI industry narrative, market sentiment shifted rapidly from亢奋 to急转直下, even陷入恐慌.
He analyzed that recent market expectations for the AI industry前景 have experienced some short-term波动, including concerns about "computing power过剩" and storage chip cycle worries. "This has, to some extent,打击了 investors' long-term信仰 in AI." In his view, as July enters the密集披露期 for半 annual report performance forecasts, the market's focus is shifting from "storytelling" to "looking at performance," putting pressure on some high-valuation tech stocks lacking业绩 support to face重新定价.
"Opportunities still outweigh risks at this moment. Various short-term trading funds, including止损盘,量化盘, and融资盘, have gathered, pushing short-term恐慌盘 to an极致," Long Jiangwei believes. However, the极致杀跌 by trading-oriented funds can反而 quickly release risks and accelerate turnover. "A grand narrative will have持续扰动 during its progression, but it does not change the direction of the tide. The long-term logic of the AI industry has not been证伪 yet. After adjustments, quality科技 and成长标的 with valuations returning to reasonable levels may迎来 a more cost-effective布局窗口," he said.
"In terms of起因, the叠加 of external冲击 and internal结构 is the direct导火索 for market震荡," Wang Li stated. Short-term high volatility still needs to be tolerated while waiting for trading structures and波动率 signals to修复. The key lies in observing a halt in the decline of两融 and融资活跃度, the回归 of波动率溢价, a下行 in the成交集中度 of热门板块, and the缓解 of外溢压力 from overseas AI chains and the Korean market.
"Since the '9·24行情', A-shares have experienced multiple阶段性去杠杆 events. Common characteristics基本上 include a下降 or放缓 in两融余额, a快速回落 in融资买入活跃度, and implied波动率 falling below realized波动率," he analyzed. Thereafter, if fundamentals remain stable, a反弹 may follow; if fundamentals are证伪, it would enter a "logically顺畅持续下行."
Based on this, Wang Li判断: "In terms of节奏预期, barring new external冲击, the most剧烈阶段 of trading-side deleveraging may have passed. However, because the波动率期限结构与拥挤度 have not yet fully修复, short-term high波动 may still be难以避免."
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