Abstract
Harley-Davidson will release its Q4 2025 results Pre-Market on February 10, 2026; this preview consolidates last quarter’s actuals, the company’s current-quarter forecast, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations on revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS.
Market Forecast
Consensus derived from the company’s current-quarter forecast implies revenue of $0.48 billion, up 3.94% year over year, with EBIT projected at -$0.17 billion and EPS at -$1.04, indicating margin compression versus the prior year. The prior quarter’s framing suggests limited gross profit margin resilience in the seasonally soft winter quarter and a negative net profit margin, so adjusted EPS is expected to be negative year over year.
Harley-Davidson’s core motorcycle segment is projected to see subdued unit activity in colder markets but mix and pricing discipline may support profitability outlook into spring. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services arm remains a buffer for consolidated revenue, while the premium heavyweight motorcycle franchise is positioned to benefit from model-year refresh exposure next quarter.
Last Quarter Review
The prior quarter delivered revenue of $1.07 billion, a gross profit margin of 52.50%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.38 billion, a net profit margin of 28.15%, and adjusted EPS of $3.10, with year-over-year growth in revenue of 22.54% and strong upside versus estimates.
A standout was operating leverage, with EBIT of $0.47 billion exceeding prior expectations and underscoring improved cost control and mix management. Main business highlights: Harley-Davidson Motor Company generated $1.07 billion in revenue, Harley-Davidson Financial Services contributed $0.26 billion, and the remaining operations delivered $0.01 billion; the consolidated top line grew 22.54% year over year.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Motorcycles and Related Products
The motorcycle and related products business is the core earnings engine and the principal swing factor for quarterly volatility. In the current winter quarter, shipment cadence typically slows, amplifying the impact of dealer inventory discipline and channel fill timing on revenue recognition. The forecasted revenue of $0.48 billion implies a softer quarter sequentially, but pricing and premium mix should help cushion average revenue per unit. The near-term margin setup is challenged by seasonal under-absorption and launch investment, reflected in an estimated EBIT loss of $0.17 billion and an EPS loss of $1.04. Management’s focus on mix optimization and selective promotions aims to protect brand equity and gross margin resilience into the upcoming riding season, but quarter-on-quarter margin pressure is likely before an anticipated spring recovery.
Financial Services
Harley-Davidson Financial Services remains a stabilizer through interest income and captive financing penetration, which can offset some seasonal softness in motorcycles. Credit normalization is a factor: loss rates and delinquencies have risen from cycle lows industry-wide, which can pressure segment profitability and capital needs. Nonetheless, the financing arm’s revenue contribution of $0.26 billion last quarter demonstrated its role in smoothing consolidated results, and stable origination volumes tied to new-model demand could support revenue continuity this quarter. Funding costs and spreads warrant attention because they influence the net interest margin and the durability of segment earnings as rates evolve.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock’s near-term reaction will likely hinge on three items: delivery commentary for the early 2026 riding season, gross margin durability as the company navigates seasonality, and the trajectory of credit metrics at Harley-Davidson Financial Services. Any guidance that frames a credible path from a seasonally weak quarter to a margin and EPS recovery by spring could underpin multiple support. Conversely, signals of persistent demand softness, heavier promotional activity, or deterioration in credit trends could weigh on sentiment. Investors will also parse management’s tone on inventory, dealer health, and cadence of new product introductions, given their leverage to pricing power and throughput.
Analyst Opinions
Among recent institutional views, bullish and constructive stances appear to outnumber bearish calls. A Buy rating from BMO Capital with a $30.00 price target reflects confidence that execution and valuation offer upside potential, while a Hold rating from KeyBanc suggests a balanced risk-reward pending greater clarity on demand and credit trends. Media commentary following the last quarter highlighted a sizable earnings beat but a muted share response, indicating lingering skepticism embedded in the stock. The majority view is cautiously positive: analysts expecting stabilization and a recovery as the riding season approaches argue that premium mix, disciplined inventory management, and the supporting role of financial services can bridge the seasonal trough. This perspective emphasizes that the winter-quarter loss profile is a function of normal seasonality rather than structural demand erosion, and that upcoming product cycles and pricing should help restore margin cadence into mid-year.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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