**Financial Derivatives:** **Financial Futures:** Government bond futures, stock index futures. **Precious Metals:** Gold, silver. **Commodity Futures:** **Non-ferrous Metals:** Copper, nickel, zinc, aluminum, stainless steel, lithium carbonate. **Ferrous Metals:** Steel products, iron ore, coking coal and coke, thermal coal. **Agricultural Products:** Oils, meal, corn, live hogs, sugar, cotton, eggs. **Energy & Chemicals:** Crude oil, LPG, polyolefins, PTA, PP, MEG, methanol, urea, short-staple fiber, PVC, styrene, butadiene rubber, PX, caustic soda, bottle chips. **Special Commodities:** Pulp, rubber, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon.
**Stock Index Futures:** **Logic:** A-shares cyclical sectors rose broadly, with the STAR and ChiNext indices performing strongly. Futures followed the indices higher, with basis spreads narrowing as risk appetite recovered. The Fed held rates steady, while domestic liquidity saw a net injection. Reducing positions is advised before the holiday. **Data:** The Shanghai Composite rose 0.71%, the Shenzhen Component gained 1.96%, and the ChiNext Index advanced 2.51%. IF2606 rose 1.44%, IC2606 climbed 2.28%. A-share turnover reached 2.59 trillion yuan, with the PBOC conducting a net injection of 1.99 billion yuan. **View:** Reduce positions before the holiday; take profits on short put options and some bull spread strategies.
**Precious Metals:** **Gold:** **Logic:** Escalating US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher. The Fed held rates but internal dissent reached the highest level since 1992. Rising inflation concerns pressured gold prices, with funds continuing to flow out. **Data:** Spot gold closed at $4,543.63/oz, down 1.11%, hitting a low of $4,509. **View:** Short-term support is sought near $4,500; a break below could target $4,400. Stay sidelined on directional bets for now. **Silver:** **Logic:** Silver followed gold lower as investment demand was sold off. High oil prices supported industrial demand from the new energy sector. **Data:** Spot silver closed at $71.307/oz, down 2.38%, with a low of $70.85. **View:** Short-term support is expected above $70. Hold short out-of-the-money call options. **Platinum & Palladium:** **Logic:** Affected by both macroeconomic and industrial factors. Large domestic imports and warehouse receipts boosted prices. **Data:** Platinum support at $1,850-$1,900; palladium support at $1,400. **View:** Platinum under pressure and declining; palladium relatively resilient.
**Containerized Freight (Europe Route):** **Logic:** May capacity is flat compared to April, with a slight improvement in supply-demand balance. A turning point in spot volumes is possible around the Labor Day holiday. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping, with carriers gradually raising rates. **Data:** SCFIS Europe route index at 1,567.20 points, down 2.68% WoW; Maersk quoted $2,410/40GP. **View:** The June contract has fully priced in peak season. Take profits on long positions; consider a long June/short October spread.
**Non-ferrous Metals:** **Copper:** **Logic:** Downstream demand weakened, with copper rod operating rates declining. Social inventory destocking slowed. Tight raw material supply persists. **Data:** SMM cathode copper average price at 101,575 yuan/ton, down 485 yuan from the previous day. SHFE stocks fell 39,100 tons WoW to 201,400 tons. **View:** Short-term weak oscillation. Watch support at 97,000-98,000 yuan. Stay sidelined after taking profits on longs. **Alumina:** **Logic:** Warehouse receipts approached a new high of 500,000 tons. New capacity in Guangxi came online. Periodic destocking is unlikely to change the oversupply structure. **Data:** Shandong spot average at 2,655 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan WoW. Warehouse receipts at 490,900 tons, up 22,800 tons WoW. **View:** Wide oscillations expected in the 2,750-2,950 yuan/ton range. Hold a short June/long September spread. **Aluminum:** **Logic:** Geopolitical sensitivity decreased. Domestic demand is insufficient, with inventory accumulation. Overseas stocks remain at historical lows. **Data:** A00 aluminum spot average at 24,480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan WoW. Domestic inventory at 1.465 million tons, up 12,000 tons WoW. **View:** Monitor support near 24,000 points. Adopt a wait-and-see approach short-term. **Aluminum Alloy:** **Logic:** Followed primary aluminum lower. Weak demand from the automotive sector during the off-season. Cost constraints limit the downside. **Data:** ADC12 spot average at 23,900 yuan/ton. Social inventory at 28,400 tons, up 700 tons WoW. **View:** Wide oscillations expected in the 22,500-23,500 yuan/ton range. Consider a long aluminum alloy/short primary aluminum spread. **Zinc:** **Logic:** Imbalance between mining and smelting profits. Social inventory accumulated slightly. Terminal demand remains weak. **Data:** 0# zinc ingot average at 23,780 yuan/ton. Domestic inventory at 260,200 tons, up 200 tons WoW. **View:** Weak oscillation. Watch support near 23,000. Stay sidelined after taking profits on longs. **Tin:** **Logic:** Increased imported ore eased supply tightness. Downstream demand recovery is slow. Inflation concerns weighed on the sector. **Data:** 1# tin at 385,150 yuan/ton, up 2,150 yuan. LME inventory at 8,630 tons, down 20 tons daily. **View:** Wide oscillations. Consider going long if spot transactions improve after a pullback. **Nickel:** **Logic:** Rising raw material costs. Expected production cuts of intermediate products boosted sentiment. Domestic inventory continued to accumulate. **Data:** 1# nickel cathode average at 151,450 yuan/ton, up 3,350 yuan daily. Domestic inventory at 97,442 tons, up 3,352 tons WoW. **View:** Range-bound with strength, between 145,000-155,000 yuan/ton. Trade within the range. **Stainless Steel:** **Logic:** Rising raw material prices strengthened cost support. Supply is ample, demand recovery is slow. Inventory continued to decline. **Data:** Wuxi 304 cold-rolled sheet at 15,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. Social inventory at 1.1167 million tons, down 32,000 tons WoW. **View:** Strong oscillation, range 14,600-15,500 yuan/ton. **Lithium Carbonate:** **Logic:** Futures and stock sentiment aligned. May battery production forecasts were revised upwards. Raw material shortages are expected to reduce May output. **Data:** LC2609 rose 3.73% to 183,880 yuan/ton. Total open interest at 750,000 lots, up 25,000 lots daily. **View:** Short-term strength. Watch for a breakout above 185,000 yuan. Reduce long positions for short-term trades; consider medium-term positions on dips. **Polysilicon:** **Logic:** Spot market weak. Futures converged towards spot. Supply stable to increasing. Demand weak, leading to oversupply. **Data:** N-type feedstock average at 35.15 yuan/kg. Inventory at 293,000 tons, down 28,000 tons WoW. **View:** Weak oscillation. Manage positions before the holiday. **Industrial Silicon:** **Logic:** Rumors of production cuts drove futures higher. Output is expected to increase during the wet season. The oversupply structure remains. **Data:** Si5530 average at 9,100 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipts at 135,200 tons; social inventory at 556,000 tons. **View:** Low-level oscillation, range 8,000-8,800 yuan/ton. Adopt a bearish bias.
**Ferrous Metals:** **Steel Products:** **Logic:** Supply and demand near peak levels. Export growth is expected. Domestic demand is weak. Inventory declined rapidly. **Data:** Tangshan billet at 3,100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Inventory of five major steel products at 17.02 million tons, down 620,000 tons WoW. **View:** Valuations are not high. Hold long positions. The price center is shifting upwards. **Iron Ore:** **Logic:** Pig iron growth slowed. Global shipments recovered. Port inventory declined slightly. **Data:** Main contract up 0.9% to 787.5 yuan/ton. Inventory at 45 ports was 166.6412 million tons, down 837,100 tons WoW. **View:** Range-bound, between 750-810 yuan/ton. **Coking Coal:** **Logic:** Spot auctions improved. Diesel shortages in Mongolia may affect supply. Pre-holiday restocking is nearing completion. **Data:** 2609 contract up 0.55% to 1,273.5 yuan/ton. Total inventory at 40.311 million tons, up 297,000 tons WoW. **View:** Buy the 2609 contract on dips, range 1,200-1,350 yuan/ton. Adopt a wait-and-see approach on spreads. **Coke:** **Logic:** Coke producers initiated a third round of price hikes. Cost support is strong. Supply-demand balance is tight short-term. **Data:** 2609 contract up 0.88% to 1,834 yuan/ton. Coke plant inventory at 801,000 tons, down 18,000 tons WoW. **View:** Buy the 2609 contract on dips, range 1,700-1,900 yuan/ton. Adopt a wait-and-see approach on spreads. **Ferrosilicon:** **Logic:** Both supply and demand increased, with the gap narrowing. Monitor supply growth rates. Costs remained stable. **Data:** Main contract up 0.97% to 5,810 yuan/ton. National operating rate at 30.28%. **View:** Trade within the range of 5,400-5,900 yuan/ton. Consider buying ferrosilicon and selling silicomanganese on dips. **Silicomanganese:** **Logic:** Supply increased slowly. Manganese ore cost support weakened. Demand growth was limited. **Data:** Main contract up 0.33% to 6,114 yuan/ton. National operating rate at 30.86%. **View:** Weak oscillation, range 5,800-6,300 yuan/ton.
**Agricultural Products:** **Meal:** **Logic:** Soybeans fluctuated. Domestic soybean arrivals concentrated. Oil plant operating rates recovered. Terminal buying improved modestly. **Data:** Tianjin soybean meal at 2,940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. National oil plant operating rate at 45.55%. **View:** Short-term rebound signs visible. Overall, trade cautiously. **Live Hogs:** **Logic:** Policy support was limited. Willingness to sell was high. Pre-holiday restocking space was small. Subsequent demand is expected to fall. **Data:** National average price at 9.81 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan. Self-breeding profit at -322.56 yuan/head. **View:** Range-bound. Consider shorting the July contract on rallies. Watch for a short July/long September spread. **Corn:** **Logic:** Limited remaining grain in Northeast China. Traders supported prices. Downstream demand was poor. Supply and demand were relatively balanced. **Data:** Northeast quotes at 2,200-2,350 yuan/ton. Inventory at four northern ports at 3.135 million tons, up 139,000 tons WoW. **View:** Narrow range oscillation. Limited unilateral momentum. **Sugar:** **Logic:** Rising international energy prices supported raw sugar. Domestic spot supply was ample amid seasonal demand weakness. Positive factors were digested. **Data:** ICE raw sugar rose to a three-week high. China imported 98,200 tons of sugar in March. **View:** Wide oscillations. Adopt a wait-and-see approach short-term. **Cotton:** **Logic:** Bullish factors from US cotton drought were digested. Domestic planting area is expected to fall. Downstream purchasing was cautious. **Data:** Inland 3128-grade cotton at 17,920 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. Warehouse receipts at 515,000 tons. **View:** Short-term strength. Beware of a rally followed by a pullback. **Eggs:** **Logic:** Supply was ample. Breeders delayed culling. Pre-holiday restocking concluded. Demand softened. **Data:** Main producing area average at 3.79 yuan/jin. Production inventory at 0.97 days; circulation inventory at 1.08 days. **View:** Short-term strength. High prices carry correction risks. Monitor post-holiday demand. **Oils:** **Logic:** Rising crude oil prices provided support. Palm oil exports were weak, production increased. Soybean oil arrivals were large. **Data:** Soybean oil main September contract at 8,573 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. Malaysian palm oil exports fell 15.7% in April. **View:** Palm oil and soybean oil are bearish medium-to-long term. Rapeseed oil's upside is limited. **Red Dates:** **Logic:** Supply and demand were loose. Inventory was high, demand was weak. Futures were near five-year lows. **Data:** Main contract CJ2609 closed at 9,080 yuan/ton. Sample inventory at 11,260 tons, down 45 tons WoW. **View:** A slight rebound is possible. Prefer selling after any rebound. **Apples:** **Logic:** Spot consumption was weak. Destocking was slow. New season fruit setting was good, suggesting strong production growth. **Data:** Main contract AP2610 up 0.26% to 7,615 yuan/ton. Cold storage inventory at 3.1996 million tons. **View:** Decline halted and stabilized. Watch support at 7,500. Be cautious of weather during the fruit-setting period.
**Energy & Chemicals:** **Crude Oil:** **Logic:** US crude inventories fell sharply. Middle East geopolitical tensions persisted. Supply and demand were tight. Inventory declined rapidly. **Data:** WTI June contract up 6.95% to $106.88/barrel. US commercial stocks fell by 6.233 million barrels. **View:** Strong oscillation. High volatility expected at elevated levels. No clear trend. **PX:** **Logic:** Strong cost support from crude oil. Downstream PTA negative feedback continued. Both supply and demand were weak. **Data:** Asian PX at $1,266/ton, up $5. Domestic operating rate at 80.8%. **View:** Watch resistance at 10,000 yuan. Reduce long positions before the holiday. **PTA:** **Logic:** Strong cost support. Downstream operating rates were constrained. High inventory capped gains. **Data:** Spot processing margin at 348 yuan/ton. Domestic operating rate at 65%. **View:** Follows raw material oscillations. Watch resistance at 6,800 yuan. Reduce long positions before the holiday. **Short-staple Fiber:** **Logic:** Weak intrinsic drivers. Follows raw material prices. Both supply and demand were weak. Downstream pre-holiday restocking willingness was low. **Data:** Spot processing margin at 731 yuan/ton. Plant operating rate at 86.2%. **View:** Follow PTA movements. Consider widening the spread when the margin is below 800. **Bottle Chips:** **Logic:** Demand enters peak season in May. Supply and demand are tight. Follows raw materials in wide oscillations. **Data:** Plant inventory at 6.84 days, down 1.2 days WoW. Jan-Mar consumption up 17.6% YoY. **View:** Processing margins are strong. Watch resistance at 9,000 yuan. **MEG:** **Logic:** Both supply and demand were weak. Near-month inventory continued to decline. Import volumes are expected to fall. **Data:** East China port inventory at 883,000 tons, down 94,000 tons WoW. Domestic operating rate at 67.13%. **View:** Range-bound. Watch resistance at 5,100 yuan. **Benzene:** **Logic:** Supply contracted. Inventory continued to decline. Improving supply-demand balance supported prices. **Data:** Jiangsu spot at 8,760 yuan/ton. Port inventory at 210,000 tons, down 11,400 tons WoW. **View:** Oscillates between 8,300-8,800 yuan. Consider widening the EB-BZ spread at low levels. **Styrene:** **Logic:** Industry losses led to lower operating rates. Supply-demand dynamics improved marginally. Low valuations provided support. **Data:** Spot at 10,070-10,270 yuan/ton. Port inventory at 130,800 tons, down 6,000 tons WoW. **View:** Support is relatively strong. Watch resistance at 10,000 yuan. **LLDPE:** **Logic:** Plant maintenance reduced supply. Upstream inventory declined. Downstream demand was weak. **Data:** East China spot at 8,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. Capacity utilization rate at 72.89%. **View:** Moderately bullish. Reduce long positions before the holiday. **PP:** **Logic:** Raw material trends diverged. Industry chain inventory continued to decline. Exports performed well. **Data:** East China raffia at 9,350 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization rate at 63.89%. **View:** Adopt a wait-and-see approach short-term. **Methanol:** **Logic:** Basis weakened. Trading was light. Port inventory destocked. Expectations of supply recovery in distant months capped gains. **Data:** Taicang spot at 3,285-3,295 yuan/ton. National operating rate at 77.77%. **View:** Hold long positions in the September contract. **Caustic Soda:** **Logic:** Demand was weak. Supply increased. Inventory accumulated. Prices consolidated. **Data:** Shandong 32% alkali at 580-625 yuan/ton. Plant inventory at 585,500 tons, up 4.71% WoW. **View:** Consolidation. Further supply increases will continue to pressure prices. **PVC:** **Logic:** Seasonal maintenance approached, reducing supply. Demand was steady. Cost support was strong. **Data:** East China spot at 5,060 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization rate at 74.96%. **View:** Support is strong. Short-term oscillation with strength. **Urea:** **Logic:** Prices fell as export rumors were disproven. Export expectations remain. Energy costs increased. **Data:** Shandong ex-factory price at 1,840 yuan/ton. Plant inventory at 464,300 tons, down 43,400 tons WoW. **View:** Short-term strength. Adopt a wait-and-see approach. Avoid chasing rallies. **Soda Ash:** **Logic:** Supply stable to increasing. Downstream demand was weak. Inventory high but slightly lower. **Data:** Main contract at 1,238 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. Plant inventory at 1.8676 million tons. **View:** Weak oscillation, range 1,200-1,300 yuan. Consider light long positions on dips, betting on maintenance. **Glass:** **Logic:** Downstream restocking willingness was low. Demand was in a seasonal lull. Inventory accumulated. The industry was generally loss-making. **Data:** Main contract at 1,036 yuan/ton, down 1.43%. Total inventory at 76.901 million weight cases. **View:** Weak oscillation. Hold short positions. Monitor post-holiday destocking. **Natural Rubber:** **Logic:** Raw material prices rose. Supply was tight. Downstream operating rates fluctuated slightly. Export shipments were acceptable. **Data:** Thai STR20 at $2,210/ton, up $30. Semi-steel tire operating rate at 77.71%. **View:** Short-term strong oscillation. Trade cautiously. **Synthetic Rubber:** **Logic:** Butadiene supply and demand were both weak. Middle East stalemate continued. Butadiene rubber production was cut passively. **Data:** BR2606 up 6.05% to 16,490 yuan/ton. Shandong butadiene price at 13,075 yuan/ton. **View:** Oscillating upwards. Reduce positions before the holiday.
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