A new analysis by Pantheon Macroeconomics indicates that an increasing portion of U.S. GDP growth is being driven by capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence sector and the "wealth effect" from rising technology stock prices on consumer spending.
Analysts Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen stated in a client report that AI capital expenditure "accounted for nearly one-fifth of the 2.2% year-over-year GDP growth in the fourth quarter."
Additionally, they estimated that the value of "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks held by U.S. households increased by $3.8 trillion in 2025. Based on historical trends, this wealth gain boosted consumer spending by 0.4 percentage points in Q4 2025, contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth. The "wealth effect" refers to the phenomenon where consumers increase spending when they feel wealthier due to rising home or investment values.
They stated, "Overall, AI-related capital expenditure and the wealth effect from rising tech stocks likely accounted for one-third of total GDP growth at the end of last year."
"Combined with the direct growth contribution from AI capital spending, the economy would become vulnerable if investors begin doubting AI's development prospects, potentially causing significant declines in both stock prices and investment expenditure."
Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that while AI has not yet demonstrated significant impact on overall productivity growth, sectors with higher current AI adoption—such as technology companies—have shown "accelerating productivity growth, offsetting slowdowns in other areas. Productivity growth in these sectors remains notably higher than pre-pandemic levels."
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