Good morning. Let's look at some important news.
Trump said he hopes to "reach an agreement" with Iran According to reports, on February 1 local time, former US President Trump, speaking at Mar-a-Lago, responded to reporters' questions about Iran by stating he hopes to "reach an agreement." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei's warning that "any US attack would spark a regional war," Trump said that if an agreement cannot be reached, "then we'll see if he (Khamenei) is correct." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed the "world's largest and most powerful naval vessels" in the relevant region.
Iranian Foreign Minister: "Still Confident" in Reaching Nuclear Deal with US According to reports, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a media interview on February 1 local time that Iran is "still confident" about reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States. Araghchi stated that Iran has "lost trust in the US as a negotiating partner." However, he indicated that information exchanges facilitated by friendly regional countries are promoting contact between the two sides, describing the talks as "productive" and noting that "the other side is talking to us and taking us seriously." On the question of holding direct negotiations, Araghchi declined to make a commitment, stressing that the focus should be on the "substance of the negotiations" rather than the form, and stating that "there is no need to discuss impossibilities." He reiterated that Iran wants the US to lift long-standing sanctions while respecting Iran's right to continue uranium enrichment within the framework of peaceful nuclear energy use. Araghchi also said that if the two sides can reach some consensus and eliminate misunderstandings and miscalculations, it would not only create significant opportunities for economic cooperation between Iran and the US but also benefit the development of all countries in the region. He emphasized that Iran remains open to cooperation with US companies.
Eight Foreign Ministers Issue Joint Statement According to reports, on February 1 local time, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the foreign ministers of eight countries—Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia—issued a joint statement strongly condemning Israel's repeated violations of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which have recently resulted in over a thousand Palestinian casualties. The statement pointed out that Israel's actions could exacerbate regional tensions and undermine efforts aimed at consolidating peace and restoring stability. The eight foreign ministers believe that Israel's persistent violations of the ceasefire agreement pose a direct threat to the ongoing political process, hinder continuous efforts to create conditions for Gaza's transition to a more stable phase, and emphasize that all parties must make every effort to ensure the success of the second phase of the Gaza peace plan. The foreign ministers also called on all parties to fully fulfill their respective responsibilities during this critical period, exercise maximum restraint, maintain and consolidate the ceasefire, avoid any actions that could undermine the current process, and create favorable conditions for the early reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. They further emphasized the need to advance a just and lasting peace based on Palestinian self-determination and the right to statehood, in accordance with international law, relevant UN Security Council resolutions, and the Arab Peace Initiative.
Indian, Saudi Stock Markets Plunge On February 1, India arranged a special trading session for the budget. During the session, the Nifty 50 index plummeted by over 700 points at one point, a drop of nearly 3%. Metal stocks led the decline, with the NIFTY Metal Index falling over 5% intraday and closing down more than 4%. Among individual stocks, Hindustan Copper plunged over 13%, and Hindustan Zinc dropped nearly 10%. The Saudi stock market also fell sharply that day, with the Saudi All Share Index (TASI) dropping up to 2.6%, marking its largest intraday decline since mid-June last year. Raw material producers led the losses, with Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company (AMAK) plunging 9.93% and Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) falling 9.51%. The sharp decline in gold and silver prices on January 30 weighed on the non-ferrous metals sectors in both countries. Notably, news that India's federal budget proposed increasing the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on derivatives also triggered a sharp intraday drop in Indian stocks. The Indian government proposed raising the STT on equity futures from 0.02% to 0.05%, and the tax rates on option premiums and option exercises from 0.1% to 0.15%.
"OPEC+" Announces Continued Pause on Output Increases, No Production Hike for March According to reports on February 1 local time, "OPEC+" member countries agreed to maintain the policy of pausing production increases, keeping crude oil output unchanged for March. On the same day, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries issued a statement indicating that eight "OPEC+" nations—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held an online meeting to review global market conditions and prospects. The eight countries reiterated their commitment to maintaining market stability, stating that the global economic outlook is robust and current oil market fundamentals are healthy, with low inventory levels. These participating nations reaffirmed their decision made on November 2, 2025, to pause the production increase scheduled for March 2026 due to seasonal factors. Furthermore, they emphasized their collective commitment to fully adhering to the Declaration of Cooperation and confirmed that any overproduced volumes since January 2024 would be fully compensated.
Sector Rotation: Is It Crude Oil's Turn? Last week, international oil prices experienced a roller-coaster ride, surging sharply before pulling back, influenced by alternating tensions and easing in US-Iran relations. Interviews revealed that geopolitical events dominated short-term oil price fluctuations, but the fundamental backdrop of a global crude market supply surplus remains unchanged and will continue to cap the upside for oil prices in the medium to long term. According to Zhengxin Futures crude oil analyst Fu Xinwei, the immediate cause of the sharp price surge was Europe's renewed sanctions on Iran, combined with market rumors of potential military action against Iran, which sharply escalated geopolitical concerns. In the view of Yang An, head of the Energy and Chemicals R&D Center at Haitong Futures, the continued发酵 of geopolitical factors, supply-side disruptions due to production losses from the North American cold snap, and slower-than-expected recovery of crude production and exports in Kazakhstan formed a confluence of forces driving last week's significant price increase. On a macro level, the optimistic sentiment in metal markets last week boosted overall market confidence, prompting investors to increase investment demand for commodities like crude oil, thereby supporting the price rise. Domestic crude oil futures prices fell noticeably last Thursday. Yang An attributed this to a cooling of risk appetite in financial markets and lackluster supply and demand in the domestic oil market limiting price performance. "Based on last year's experience, if a geopolitical conflict threatens the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could rebound by up to 20%—roughly to WTI $66/bbl, Brent $72/bbl, and SC 500 yuan/bbl. Last week's peak prices retreated after precisely reaching this level. If the geopolitical situation does not escalate further from here, this price peak may have become the resistance for this rebound; but if the situation escalates, the upside for oil prices is unpredictable," Fu Xinwei said. In fact, geopolitical speculation surrounding the US-Iran situation has been the core driver of the recent oil price increase. "Currently, the developments in the US-Iran situation remain highly uncertain. Trump hopes to negotiate an acceptable agreement with Iran, while militarily, the US and Iran are in a tense standoff. The US continues to deploy additional military forces to the Middle East, and Iran claims to be fully prepared for defense and military action. This is the main reason oil prices maintain a high geopolitical risk premium," Yang An stated. Regarding the recent market focus on the sector rotation pattern—"precious metals first, industrial metals confirmation, energy amplification, agricultural diffusion"—both analysts indicated that the current crude oil trend is still primarily driven by the supply side. "While the metals sector has shown strong performance recently, the energy and chemicals sector has also seen noticeable fund inflows, with some varieties already strengthening ahead of time. Looking at the持仓 structure of international crude oil, it's evident that funds have significantly increased long positions and reduced short allocations over the past few weeks, meaning market expectations for crude are also changing," Yang An said. However, Fu Xinwei believes that crude oil price increases in the classic rotation pattern are often accompanied by a recovery in industrial demand, meaning the price rise is driven by the demand side. Based on this, the current oil price increase is still more driven by the supply side; the rotation of the classic cycle remains in the expectation stage rather than the implementation stage. "Looking at changes in crude oil market supply and demand, the pressure from supply surplus in 2026 remains significant, which will limit the upside for oil prices. But over time, there are expectations for an improvement in the supply surplus pressure, and oil prices are expected to move out of a bottoming pattern. Subsequently, attention needs to be paid to changes on the supply side, including OPEC+ production policy, the impact of the geopolitical situation on supply, and the suppression of supply from the cost side due to low oil prices," Yang An stated. In Fu Xinwei's view, the main contradiction in the 2026 crude oil market is that demand growth cannot keep up with supply growth. It is expected that the impact of tariff conflicts will weaken, but global demand will still primarily focus on recovery. On the supply side, besides OPEC being in a production increase cycle, production increases from non-US, non-OPEC countries are also accelerating, and global crude inventories are at extremely high levels in recent years. Yang An stated that the biggest risk for the crude oil market currently remains the geopolitical developments surrounding the Iran situation. In the medium to long term, the pressure from supply surplus and the博弈 of market expectations are key factors affecting crude oil prices. "In the short term, one could buy put options to bet on the possibility of a geopolitical de-escalation. The crude oil supply surplus is already a known factor; other factors dominating oil prices are complex and volatile. Excessive pursuit of certainty might反而 cause one to miss trading windows," Fu Xinwei said.
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