Major A-share indices rebounded today, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing back above the 4000-point level and the ChiNext Index advancing over 2.3%. Trading volume across the two exchanges expanded to nearly 2.4 trillion yuan. The A-share market is currently navigating a critical period characterized by the digestion of external disturbances and the validation of internal economic vigor. In the near term, market performance is expected to diverge, influenced by marginal changes in geopolitical risks and the confirmation of corporate earnings trends in the first-quarter reports. The probability of an extreme scenario in the US-Iran conflict has diminished, leading to a gradual recovery in risk appetite, although persistently high oil prices continue to weigh on the global economy. Domestically, the rebound in the new orders sub-index of the PMI data is a positive sign; however, the sustainability of demand-side improvement will be fundamental to any earnings recovery. As April marks the peak season for financial disclosures, first-quarter reports will serve as a crucial test for valuation robustness. Short-term investment strategy should focus on sectors demonstrating strong Q1 performance, while deemphasizing broader macroeconomic speculation. For medium to long-term outlook, attention should be directed towards high-growth areas benefiting from industrial policies, capturing the institutional dividends associated with China's advanced manufacturing capabilities and new quality productive forces.
On the geopolitical front, citing RIA Novosti, the next round of "direct negotiations" between the US and Iran may take place on April 16 in Islamabad, Pakistan. On April 13, the US President stated to the media at the White House that the "right person" from Iran had contacted the US that morning expressing a "desire to reach a deal," but he emphasized that "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon." The Iranian President responded, expressing willingness to continue negotiations within the framework of international laws and regulations, while stressing the necessity of adhering to international principles and rules. Although the first round of Islamabad talks did not yield an agreement, the maintained channel for dialogue and the possibility of resuming direct negotiations on April 16 offer a glimmer of hope for de-escalation in the Middle East. However, the actual blockade imposed by US forces on Iranian ports starting April 13 has shifted the geopolitical contest from the negotiating table to the brink of military confrontation. The expectation of resumed talks may temporarily curb a further sharp rise in geopolitical risk premiums in the short term, but the implementation of the US blockade order suggests that the current obstruction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be reversed quickly. The outcome of the new round of talks on April 16 will be a key observation point.
On April 13, the People's Bank of China released its financial statistics report for March 2026. The data showed that new total social financing (TSF) in March was 5.2 trillion yuan, 670.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The outstanding TSF balance at the end of March was 456.46 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year. New RMB loans in March amounted to 2.99 trillion yuan, 650 billion yuan less than the previous year. The broad money supply (M2) balance was 353.86 trillion yuan, increasing by 8.5% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) balance was 119.32 trillion yuan, rising by 5.1% year-on-year. The March financial data overall presented a pattern of "stable aggregates but diverging structures." The year-on-year decreases in credit and TSF were primarily influenced by factors such as this year's more balanced credit issuance pace, a weaker front-loading of government bond issuance compared to last year, and the impact of implicit debt resolution, rather than indicating a deterioration in underlying demand. Notable structural signals include continued weakness in household financing demand, with the year-on-year decrease in medium to long-term household loans reflecting an unstable foundation for property market recovery. The corporate sector displayed a pattern of "strong short-term loans, weak medium to long-term loans." Combined with imported inflation and a slow recovery in domestic demand, corporate willingness to expand investment remains cautious, indicating that endogenous economic growth momentum still requires sustained policy support.
On April 14, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for the first quarter. According to customs statistics, China's total goods trade import and export value in Q1 2026 reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same historical period, representing a 15% year-on-year increase. Exports amounted to 6.85 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9%, while imports reached 4.99 trillion yuan, surging by 19.6%. The import scale hit a record high for the period, with its growth rate exceeding that of exports by 7.7 percentage points. Against the backdrop of ongoing US-Iran tensions and rising global trade protectionism, the strong Q1 foreign trade performance demonstrates the resilience and pressure-resistant capacity of the Chinese economy. Specifically, new energy vehicle exports doubled, and exports of mechanical and electrical products maintained high growth, confirming the global competitive advantage of Chinese manufacturing. The 15% quarterly growth rate in imports and exports is the highest in nearly five years. This export resilience is expected to boost profit expectations for export-oriented sectors such as home appliances, light industry, electronics, and auto parts.
On April 14, the three major A-share indices closed higher. At the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 4026.63 points, up 0.95%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14639.95 points, rising 1.61%; the ChiNext Index reached 3558.53 points, gaining 2.36%; and the STAR 100 Index closed at 1628.16 points, increasing by 2.29%. Among Shenwan primary industries, only Oil & Petrochemicals, Coal, and Steel declined, falling 1.18%, 1.02%, and 0.58% respectively. Conglomerates, Electronics, and Real Estate led the gains, advancing 3.24%, 2.67%, and 2.60% respectively. A total of 3562 stocks advanced, while 1526 declined.
Market turnover reached 2396.972 billion yuan, higher than the previous trading session. The balance of margin trading and securities lending closed at 2630.736 billion yuan yesterday, showing an increase from the prior day.
Comments