According to a research report by China Securities Co., Ltd., the innovative drug sector exhibits three major trends: deepening internationalization (2.0 phase), with 2025 license-out deals reaching a record 103 transactions and upfront payments hitting $8.45 billion, granting valuation premiums to independent global players; unprecedented policy support, including streamlined医保 negotiations and the first commercial insurance创新药 catalog; and sustained technological breakthroughs across ADC, IO bispecifics, GLP-1 weight loss, and small核酸 drugs.
The CXO sector’s adjustment is largely complete, with stable overseas demand and rebounding domestic投融资. Key focus areas include CDMO players with robust出海 capabilities and leading clinical CROs. Upstream supply chains show marked recovery, with ample room for国产化率提升, driven by smart/digital production and global expansion.
**Global Perspective**: Despite external challenges, China’s医药 industry competitiveness grows, leveraging demographic demand, manufacturing/supply chain strengths, and rising innovation. U.S. leads in early-stage R&D and premium-priced markets. Opportunities persist abroad, warranting attention to domestic market share gains and出海.
**Domestic Priorities**: 1. **Policy**: Post-2025 focus on optimized集采, diversified支付, and medical service pricing reforms. 2. **Pharma Supply Chain**: Prioritize innovation转型 and supply chain security. 3. **Devices**: Favor import substitution, M&A, and emerging tech (e.g., AI, brain-computer interfaces). 4. **Sectors**: Monitor recovery in traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacies, distribution, healthcare services, and vaccines.
**Global Expansion Strategies**: 1. **Innovative Drugs**: Strengthened international presence. 2. **Upstream/Life Sciences**: Pursue overseas growth. 3. **APIs**: Navigate tariff impacts and转型 opportunities. 4. **Devices**: Accelerate出海, especially in proprietary sales/BD. 5. **Plasma Products**: Leverage静丙 for global entry. 6. **Vaccines**: Diversified models to expedite出海.
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