Nio Stock Still Has a Great Story and Valuation Issues

InvestorPlace2021-05-10

A big pullback leaves NIO stock cheaper, but perhaps not cheap enough. There are two figures that highlight the case for and againstNio(NYSE:NIO) stock. The bull case is strengthened by the fact that...

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Comments

sklow288
2021-05-12
sklow288
Well written..???
Ahwei6868
2021-05-11
Ahwei6868
Go nio
KMK
2021-05-11
KMK
Common NIO
RodericK
2021-05-10
RodericK
A
- POOP:
  A what
fongj
2021-05-10
fongj
Guess current price is based on not too far away potential.
Brandon2207
2021-05-10
Brandon2207
Nio has lots of potential to go up even more !

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Obviously, that fact alone doesn’t make the shares worth buying.\nThe massive rally of electric-vehicle stocks that began in November clearly went too far. Nio benefited from optimism about the EV sector, roughly doubling over a nearly four-month stretch. A pullback of some kind probably was necessary.\nStill, Nio is much cheaper than it was. And it’s fair to point out that for more than a decade, sharp declines of quality growth stocks have almost always created buying opportunities. After posting impressive results over the past few quarters, NIO is starting to look like a quality growth stock.\nThere’s another number worth noting, however: $61 billion. That’s the market capitalization of  Nio even after its recent selloff. It’s an absolutely enormous number that’s not far below the combined market caps ofFord Motor Company(NYSE:F) andStellantis(NYSE:STLA) (the latter company was created by the merger ofFiat Chryslerand Europe’sPSA Group). So the market capitalization of Nio stock might very well be excessive.\nA Look at Valuation\nNIO stock trades at almost 12 times analysts’ average 2021 revenue estimate.\nIn this market, that multiple perhaps doesn’t sound all that high. But bear in mind that the stocks that are valued at 20 times their revenue almost without exception are tech firms. Software companies, for example, might have gross margins of 80% or higher.\nNio hadgross margins of just 19.5%in the first quarter. And while that figure hasn’t necessarily peaked, the company’s management did say on its first-quarter earnings call that its gross margins would only rise to a limited extent in the near-term. Over the long-term, its gross margins will likely peak in the high-20s percentage levels in even a best-case scenario.\nAuto manufacturing — yes, even electric auto manufacturing — simply isn’t all that profitable. And yet the current Nio’s stock price still seems to price in an awful lot of success.\nGiven the risks posed by the shares at this point, anyone owning NIO stock probably is looking for significant gains. Let’s use annualized returns of 12%, which over a decade would cause the stock to slightly more than triple.\nTo meet that threshold, Nio in 2031 must have a market capitalization of $180 billion. That, in turn, probably requires net income of at least $4 billion in  that year. Given the auto industry’s profit margins, Nio needs something like $35 billion of revenue to hit that figure. That’s in the range of1% market share worldwide, based on industry projections.\nThe Case for NIO Stock\nLet’s be fair; Nio can get there. A 1% share of the global market is a bigger number than it sounds. But at the same time, China has roughly 18% of the world’s population. And a steadily growing portion of that population will be able to afford Nio’s vehicles, particularly if the company starts making cheaper EVs.\nAnd while a $180 billion market capitalization sounds enormous, EV companies are getting big valuations. Most notably,Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA) is still valued at over $600 billion. Those who invested in that stock no doubt are expecting a valuation of at least $1 trillion by 2031.\nFinally, there’s one simple retort to Nio bears, even after the pullback of EV names over the past couple of months. Specifically, focusing on valuation alone has been a good way to miss out on big gains by growth stocks. Tesla, of course, is a perfect example.\nPersonally, I’m sympathetic to the case for NIO stock at this point. The stock’s chart, which shows that the shares have been getting support around their current levels recently, suggests I’m not alone.\nYet I can’t quite get bullish on Nio. China has a huge EV market, but it’s also massively competitive already, with Tesla,XPeng(NYSE:XPEV),Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI) and state-owned manufacturers looking to take their own pieces of the pie.\nAnd while the EV market will grow over time, China is further along than most of the world, as. 10% of its automobiles are already EVs, according to Nio.\nIn that context, the pullback of Nio stock looks like a needed correction rather than an opportunity. But I’ll admit thatI’ve been wrongon NIO before. Reasonable investors can believe that I’m wrong again.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":193360561,"gmtCreate":1620766904453,"gmtModify":1704347938782,"author":{"id":"3580703888313540","authorId":"3580703888313540","name":"sklow288","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd21cbc93a094c310d2d635b21f20d73","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580703888313540","idStr":"3580703888313540"},"htmlText":"Well written..???","listText":"Well written..???","text":"Well written..???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193360561","repostId":1118550439,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":193076044,"gmtCreate":1620742412188,"gmtModify":1704347729244,"author":{"id":"3576210449115034","authorId":"3576210449115034","name":"Ahwei6868","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd3c758c9658a33289fa552d6d0f3d2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576210449115034","idStr":"3576210449115034"},"htmlText":"Go nio","listText":"Go nio","text":"Go nio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193076044","repostId":1118550439,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":199847925,"gmtCreate":1620697002567,"gmtModify":1704346891476,"author":{"id":"3582016561552186","authorId":"3582016561552186","name":"KMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef525a9485b7272e73ab442de514d467","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582016561552186","idStr":"3582016561552186"},"htmlText":"Common NIO","listText":"Common NIO","text":"Common NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199847925","repostId":1118550439,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":199077322,"gmtCreate":1620659458766,"gmtModify":1704346357997,"author":{"id":"3574931303509491","authorId":"3574931303509491","name":"RodericK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1bc8d18e14c9a78fd5fa391a0823ce","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3574931303509491","idStr":"3574931303509491"},"htmlText":"A","listText":"A","text":"A","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199077322","repostId":1118550439,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4283580,"gmtCreate":1620672882526,"gmtModify":1680787973134,"authorId":3583308661138564,"author":{"id":3583308661138564,"idStr":"3583308661138564","authorId":3583308661138564,"name":"POOP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":199077322,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"A <u>what</u>","text":"A <u>what</u>","html":"A <u>what</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":199062917,"gmtCreate":1620657457339,"gmtModify":1704346301914,"author":{"id":"3576237822910328","authorId":"3576237822910328","name":"fongj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce49c725fb9db07e6d4fad9c0dc7eef","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576237822910328","idStr":"3576237822910328"},"htmlText":"Guess current price is based on not too far away potential.","listText":"Guess current price is based on not too far away potential.","text":"Guess current price is based on not too far away potential.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199062917","repostId":1118550439,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":190527247,"gmtCreate":1620636585589,"gmtModify":1704345903039,"author":{"id":"3578540042073632","authorId":"3578540042073632","name":"Brandon2207","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0335fafe87a5d7a8728bb3763ba20dc","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578540042073632","idStr":"3578540042073632"},"htmlText":"Nio has lots of potential to go up even more !&nbsp;","listText":"Nio has lots of potential to go up even more !&nbsp;","text":"Nio has lots of potential to go up even more !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190527247","repostId":1118550439,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":39,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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