Citi has released a research report updating its model for PETROCHINA (00857) to reflect the bank's latest Brent crude oil assumptions, set at $75, $70, and $65 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, and 2027, respectively.
The bank has raised its 2026 fiscal year earnings per share forecast for PETROCHINA by 26%, while the 2027 forecast remains largely unchanged, with a slight downward revision of just 1%. This update also introduces projections for the 2028 fiscal year.
Citi has increased its target price from HK$10 to HK$12, primarily reflecting a revised discounted cash flow valuation for the exploration and production segment, with a long-term Brent crude oil price assumption of $65 per barrel, up from a previous assumption of $60 per barrel.
Given the significant widening of the discount for Russian crude oil relative to other imported grades, along with strong jet fuel crack spreads, Citi believes PETROCHINA can fully offset domestic pressure from gasoline and diesel margins. Furthermore, its natural gas marketing business has become more competitive amid rising LNG prices. The stock remains the bank's top pick within the Chinese oil and gas sector.
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