On Friday morning during Asian trading hours, spot gold briefly dropped below the $4,000 per ounce threshold, touching a low near 3,986 before edging back up to trade around 4,020. On the news front, Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns, while tech stock earnings triggered a liquidity squeeze, prompting a selloff in precious metals that sent gold down nearly 3% overnight. However, the US dollar index has weakened for three consecutive days to around 101.6, and US Treasury yields have pulled back, offering gold some breathing room.
From a technical perspective, the weekly Z-turn indicator has bottomed out, and the 1-hour SAR parabolic indicator is also flashing a bottom signal. The early session low of 3,986 serves as the key intraday defense level. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle line of 4,032, followed by the overnight rebound high of 4,053, which acts as the dividing line for determining bullish versus bearish momentum during the European and US sessions. A breakout above that level would bring 4,067 and 4,092 into focus. On the support side, if 3,986 gives way, the next reference is the previous low of 3,943, which is both a weekly double-bottom signal point and a potential entry zone for swing long positions, with a target of 4,200 and above.
For Friday's approach, the recommendation is to defend the early session low of 3,986 and look for upside toward the overnight rebound high of 4,053. This range represents the typical consolidation zone for the day. During the European session, the focus should be on the strength of any rebound, while in the evening, 4,053 will serve as the gauge for bullish versus bearish momentum. Bearish news and a weakening dollar are pulling in opposite directions, and the intraday price action will likely remain range-bound between 3,986 and 4,053, with a breakout needed to confirm further direction.
Gold Reference Strategy: With the live price at around 4,012: 1. Go long on a pullback to the 4,000–3,990 zone, stop loss at 4,083, targets at 4,018, 4,032, and 4,053, hold if broken; 2. Go short on a rebound to the 4,046–4,052 zone, stop loss at 4,060, targets at 4,022 and 4,000, hold if broken below; 3. Place a buy limit at 3,945, stop loss at 3,930, staged targets at 4,053, 4,166, and 4,232.
WTI crude oil briefly touched $100.97 per barrel during Friday's Asian session, while Brent crude rose above $114 for the first time since May. On the news front, disruptions to Middle East energy supply continue to simmer, with restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz compounded by a global diesel shortage. The IEA has warned that the oil market could face further turbulence until the Middle East conflict is resolved. Meanwhile, US EIA data showed crude inventories fell by 3.06 million barrels last week to 412.5 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of an 820,000-barrel draw, with the tight inventory picture providing a floor for oil prices.
From a technical standpoint, the bullish outlook for crude oil remains unchanged. Yesterday's pullback to the 98 level provided another entry opportunity for long positions, and the price has now reached around 100.5, approaching this week's high. It should be noted that before an actual breakout above this week's high of 101.3 and last week's high of 101.8 is confirmed, oil prices still carry downside risk. Thursday's crude oil pullback support levels were 98 and 96.3, which have shifted up to 99.1 and 97.8 today. As long as Friday does not break below 97.8, the bullish rhythm remains intact, and the market will likely test the weekly Bollinger Band upper rail resistance at 104.8. In terms of operations, buying on pullbacks is the preferred approach. If the price rises to the 101.3–101.8 zone and shows clear resistance, caution is warranted regarding a short-term correction. A decisive breakout above 101.8 would open the door to the 104.8 extension level.
Crude Oil Reference Strategy: With the live price at around 100.5: 1. Go short on a rebound to 101.7, stop loss at 102.2, targets at 100.5 and 99.5; 2. Go long on a pullback to the 98.5–97.8 zone, stop loss at 97.3, targets at 100, 101.8, and 104.5.
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