May 15: In the previous trading session on Thursday (May 14), international gold prices fell and closed lower, continuing a weak adjustment. Resistance was encountered at the 60-day moving average, and prices fell below the short-term moving averages and the middle Bollinger Band line, indicating increased bearish momentum. As data showed a surge in inflation, coupled with a slight increase in U.S. retail sales for April and the largest rise in import price index since March 2022, investors weighed the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, putting pressure on gold. In the short term, there is an expectation for a retest of support at the 144-day moving average around 4600 or the 200-day moving average around 4380 dollars.
In terms of specific movements, gold opened at $4690.80 per ounce in the Asian session, with overall volatile trading throughout the day. The intraday high of $4718.37 was recorded during the European session. After the U.S. session opened, bearish momentum intensified, leading to a continuous decline. By the closing period, the intraday low of $4644.06 was reached, and gold ultimately settled at $4651.88. The daily range was 74.31 dollars, with a closing decline of 38.92 dollars, a drop of 0.83%.
Looking ahead to today, Friday (May 15): international gold opened with narrow fluctuations. Although bearish momentum eased slightly in the early session, prices face resistance from multiple moving averages above. Crude oil remains above the middle Bollinger Band line, with bullish forces holding an advantage. The U.S. dollar has returned above its 200-day moving average, showing short-term strength. Overall, these factors are expected to pressure gold, leading to continued weak retracement and adjustment. Therefore, trading strategies will continue to favor short positions.
Today, attention can be given to data such as the U.S. May New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the U.S. April Industrial Production Month-on-Month rate. Market expectations are mixed, but based on this week's data and yesterday's market performance, the trend is anticipated to remain volatile with a bias towards weakness and decline.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold prices from April to the current period in May have been fluctuating continuously between the 5-month and 10-month moving averages, with an unclear directional outlook. There is potential for a consolidation and bottoming after the significant decline in March, awaiting a rebound, as well as expectations for a top formation at high levels, pending a transition to a bear market. The key focus is whether bulls can break through the resistance of the 5-month moving average and close higher to follow through towards 5200 dollars or new highs. Bears, on the other hand, will watch for a break below the 10-month moving average and a lower close to initiate a bearish view towards 3900 dollars or lower.
On the weekly chart, gold prices have been oscillating continuously between the middle Bollinger Band line and the 30-week moving average. The Bollinger Bands also indicate a sideways tendency, suggesting a forthcoming directional decision. Either await a breakout above the middle line to follow the bullish trend, or wait for a break below the 30-week moving average to look for a bottoming and rebound pattern, or consider renewed bullishness after testing support at the 60-week moving average. Until then, maintain short-term trading within the range.
On the daily chart, after encountering resistance at the 100-day moving average, gold prices have continued to decline. Currently, they have fallen below the short-term moving averages and the middle Bollinger Band line again, with increased bearish momentum. In the short term, there is potential for a decline to test the 4600 dollar level or around 4510 dollars. On the upside, watch for resistance from various moving averages for potential short positions.
For specific real-time trading guidance, refer to actual account information.
Preliminary trading level references for intraday operations are as follows (specific entry and exit points should be confirmed with actual account notifications):
Gold: Support levels to watch are around 4600 dollars or 4520 dollars; resistance levels to watch are around 4690 dollars or 4720 dollars. Silver: Support levels to watch are around 81.50 dollars or 79.50 dollars; resistance levels to watch are around 85.30 dollars or 86.85 dollars.
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