Following price recovery in courier services across Guangdong, Zhejiang and other regions, Shanghai's collection prices are set for an upward adjustment.
On September 21, industry sources from multiple courier companies revealed that on September 19, five companies - the "Big Four" (STO Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, Yunda) plus J&T Express - all issued customer notices from their Shanghai operations. The notices uniformly stated: "To implement national policies against 'involutionary' competition across industries, eliminate inappropriate low-price behaviors that disrupt market order, continuously provide stable services to customers, and return to healthy development, it has been decided that starting from 00:00 on September 22, 2025, courier collection prices for all users in the Shanghai region will be adjusted upward. Please contact local service points promptly for price confirmation."
An industry insider indicated that the Shanghai price increases are not substantial, with headquarters providing adjustment ranges while pricing authority remains with individual service points. For example, in Guangdong, previously a low-price region, prices increased by 0.4-0.5 yuan, bringing average per-package prices above 1.4 yuan. Typically, regional price adjustments involve increases of around 0.2 yuan.
The source also noted that some courier companies began competing for market share at the start of this year, forcing others to follow suit in the ensuing competition. After national anti-involution policies were announced, companies first raised prices in low-price regions like Guangdong and major e-commerce hubs like Yiwu, followed by Zhejiang, Shandong, Hunan, Jiangxi and others. Now it's Shanghai's turn, with multiple provinces nationwide having already implemented increases.
Regarding the ongoing price wars in the courier industry, industry insiders previously explained that sustained price competition essentially means frontline workers do 20% more work for only 5% more pay, or sometimes no increase at all. Headquarters passes pressure to frontline workers, who must either absorb costs themselves or leave the industry. Additionally, declining revenues may further impact service quality. Regional company executives have noted that while frontline worker wages won't decrease with falling prices, regional profits certainly don't increase year over year. A senior executive at a listed courier company noted that "in the long term, low prices lead to industry instability."
Regarding whether the return to reasonable courier pricing will affect ordinary consumers:
"This regional adjustment mainly targets low-price e-commerce packages, only raising the lowest-priced segments like those under one yuan. Not all e-commerce packages will see increases, and there's even less impact on individual shipping," an industry insider explained.
Industry experts have previously explained that courier price wars primarily refer to e-commerce delivery pricing. Courier services benefit from economies of scale - larger scale means lower costs, higher efficiency, and greater price competitive advantages. Once per-package prices return to normal ranges, increases may amount to just a few cents per package. Merchants can generally absorb such small increases, and even if passed to consumers, it might mean changing from 9.9 yuan with free shipping to 10 yuan with free shipping. Since individual package prices in the major networks' platforms already carry higher profit margins, users paying for their own shipping shouldn't see price impacts.
The State Post Bureau has repeatedly emphasized opposition to vicious competition in the courier industry in recent years. In the second half of this year, "anti-involution" policy signals have been continuously strengthened.
On July 1, the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the need to focus on key difficulties, legally regulate enterprises' low-price disorderly competition, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote orderly exit of backward capacity. On July 8, the State Post Bureau Party Group held a meeting emphasizing clear opposition to "involutionary" competition and legal regulation of terminal service quality issues. On July 29, the State Post Bureau convened a courier company symposium emphasizing active efforts to resolve "involutionary" competition and illegal charging for rural package collection.
ZTO Express (ZTO.N, 2057.HK) founder, chairman and CEO Lai Meisong stated during the second quarter earnings call that since August, courier industry prices have adjusted with rational price recovery moving in a positive direction, positively impacting overall company profits and courier income. Price competition was extremely fierce in the first half of the year, with prices severely disconnected from costs. Since the anti-involution measures began in August, positive effects are visible with clear price recovery. Industry regulators are working to reverse below-cost pricing situations. "Looking ahead, I believe even with continued industry competition, we're unlikely to return to the era of packages under one yuan. We're very confident in price stabilization."
Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd. (600233.SH) management indicated in recent investor communications that since the second half of the year, provinces and regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang have taken the lead in implementing anti-involution measures, achieving reasonable terminal price recovery. Currently, other provinces nationwide are also progressively advancing industry anti-involution efforts, which will have positive impacts on courier companies and franchise network profitability. Sto Express Co.,Ltd. (002468.SZ) management stated in recent investor exchanges that Zhejiang, Guangdong and other regions quickly responded to "anti-involution" calls with rapid implementation, while other provinces including Fujian, Hunan, Hubei and Shandong are actively responding. The company will closely monitor related anti-involution efforts and progress, expecting positive impacts on company and terminal network operations.
Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd. (002120.SZ) indicated in investor communications that currently, national-level regulatory policies targeting "involutionary" competition continue to strengthen with increasing regulatory intensity. Since August, some courier package prices in regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang have shown certain recovery. As "anti-involution" advances, more regions are expected to reach consensus. For second-half price trends, the company maintains cautiously optimistic attitudes, with the peak season potentially further driving price recovery. The company believes second-half courier industry prices show clear improvement compared to the second quarter, with irrational below-cost vicious competition expected to be effectively controlled. Price recovery will help stabilize networks, improve terminal worker income, and ultimately drive the industry toward "value competition," benefiting long-term healthy industry development.
In recent years, intense price competition has become the new normal for courier industry development. However, for courier companies to succeed in competition, they need to compete for market share through service upgrades and premiums, and pursue profits through refined management cost control. Multiple courier companies have previously stated that sustained "price-for-volume" strategies are unsustainable, with future industry evolution moving toward digitalization, intelligence, and diversified comprehensive logistics service capabilities.
Zhang Zhao'an, chief expert at China's national high-end think tank for macroeconomic operations, previously explained that "price wars" are fundamentally universal laws applicable to all industries. When multiple leading enterprises all want to grow stronger, competition emerges, typically characterized by price competition. Sustained price competition also indicates previously large profit margins that can now be compressed while companies survive. If competition intensifies to the point where leading enterprises cannot survive, industry associations and government will intervene for coordination and guidance. Leading enterprises may also begin seeking new directions, finding new business growth points in market segments to buffer revenue declines from price competition.
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