以史为鉴,观察大会后政策走向的三条线索

川阅全球宏观2022-09-04

随着20th Party Congress(以下简称20PC,其他依此类推)日程的确定,投资者的一大关注点,是今年以来不断上升的经济政策不确定性是否能在大会召开后有所下降。图1表明至少从最近四次大会召开后的情况来看是缺乏定论的。但这并不表明从大会召开到次年两会公布新的政府工作报告之前,经济政策的走向没有经验可循。在本文中,我们通过梳理历次大会召开前后人事的变动、出台的宏观政策、以及重要会议的内容,...

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