Abstract
NIO Inc. will report quarterly results on May 21, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s performance, the latest forecasts for revenue, margins, net profit and adjusted EPS, and aggregates institutional views since January 1, 2026 to inform expectations for the update.Market Forecast
Consensus points to a significant rebound this quarter with total revenue forecast at 25.15 billion RMB, implying approximately 100.57% year-over-year growth; the forecast also implies an adjusted loss per share of -0.353 RMB and an EBIT loss of 0.86 billion RMB, while year-over-year growth rates for EPS and EBIT are 86.25% and 83.39% improvements, respectively. Management and recent commentary suggest margin recovery is the focal point: the last-reported gross margin was 17.45% and net margin was 0.35%, and the market is watching whether gross margin can stabilize as scale and mix improve; the EPS forecast embeds continued investment drag despite unit growth.The core business is vehicle sales, previously contributing 31.61 billion RMB, supported by services and other at 3.04 billion RMB; this quarter’s expectations concentrate on deliveries acceleration and product mix upgrades with an eye on pricing discipline. The most promising segment is automotive, driven by higher deliveries and improving vehicle margin; revenue was 31.61 billion RMB last quarter and is expected to benefit from volume scale and mix, pointing to a YoY expansion embedded in the 100.57% revenue forecast for the group.
Last Quarter Review
NIO Inc. delivered a sequentially stronger quarter with revenue at 34.65 billion RMB, gross margin of 17.45%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of 1.22 hundred million RMB and a net margin of 0.35%, alongside adjusted EPS of 0.29 RMB, with revenue rising 75.86% year over year and adjusted EPS up 109.15% year over year. One notable highlight was the swing in operating performance relative to expectations, with EBIT at 1.25 billion RMB versus a prior estimate of a loss, reflecting scale benefits and cost control. The main business highlight was automotive revenue of 31.61 billion RMB supplemented by 3.04 billion RMB from other businesses, with growth concentrated in core vehicle deliveries and improved mix.Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Automotive revenue and margin trajectory
The automotive segment remains the primary driver of the company’s financials. The prior quarter’s automotive revenue of 31.61 billion RMB, together with a 17.45% gross margin, sets the baseline for how much margin expansion is available from better mix and scale. Forecasts for this quarter imply a group revenue of 25.15 billion RMB and substantial year-over-year growth, but with an estimated EBIT loss and negative adjusted EPS, indicating that higher deliveries alone may not fully offset spending and depreciation in the short term. Investors will focus on vehicle margin progression, which has been sensitive to input costs, pricing discipline, and the mix shift toward newer models. A sustained gross margin above the mid-teens alongside steady ASPs would reinforce the case that scale economies are flowing through despite ongoing competition.Most promising business: Vehicle volumes and product mix
The most promising near-term lever is the combination of volume growth and product mix optimization within automotive. The forecasted 100.57% year-over-year revenue trajectory for the group suggests a strong deliveries cadence underpinning the quarter, while model mix improvements typically lift vehicle margins even when headline pricing is constrained. Evidence from recent quarters shows that higher take rates on refreshed models can improve contribution margins as fixed costs are spread across more units and component costs trend down. The quarter’s success will hinge on maintaining order momentum in core nameplates while scaling newer trims, which can lift margins without aggressive pricing actions. This is also where the company has demonstrated the clearest pathway to profit improvement, as incremental volumes carry high operating leverage.Stock price drivers this quarter: Profitability signals and spending discipline
The stock’s reaction is likely to be most sensitive to margin beats or misses and the implied timeline to sustained operating profitability. While consensus embeds an EBIT loss of about 0.86 billion RMB and negative adjusted EPS, the magnitude of any deviation will influence sentiment more than top-line alone. Commentary around cost controls—particularly on manufacturing efficiency, logistics, and material costs—can reframe the trajectory of EBIT and net margins in the second half. Cash usage and capex intentions matter for valuation, so disclosure on spending discipline, platform reuse, and scale benefits will be watched closely. If management signals progress toward consistent positive operating income while protecting gross margins near or above recent levels, the market may reward the shares despite continued investment needs.Analyst Opinions
The prevailing tone across recent institutional notes skews bullish. Several well-followed houses maintained positive views in the period, highlighting improving deliveries and an approaching inflection in operating profitability: Morgan Stanley maintained a Buy on the Hong Kong line, citing constructive margin and scale dynamics; CICC reiterated Buy with price targets in the HK$50–61 range, pointing to volume growth and cost improvements; BOCOM International reiterated Buy with a higher price target (HK$65.80), and Nomura maintained Buy as well. In aggregate, the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions trends decisively toward bullish, with no notable bearish initiations in the collected window.The bullish camp emphasizes the potential for a step-change in operating performance as volumes scale and newer models improve mix, with the forecasted year-over-year revenue growth near 100% indicating a sizable deliveries rebound. Analysts also highlight operating leverage as a central theme: once gross margin stabilizes in the mid-teens or better, incremental volumes can narrow EBIT losses faster than previously modeled. The near-term risk acknowledged by bulls is that spending on R&D and sales infrastructure could keep bottom-line metrics negative this quarter, yet the expected trajectory is toward an operating break-even turning positive over the coming quarters if cost initiatives persist. On balance, the majority institutional view frames this quarter as a checkpoint for margin resilience and operating leverage, maintaining a constructive stance on the earnings path.
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