Caitong Securities has issued a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group-S (09961). As the leading player in China's online travel agency (OTA) sector, the company possesses strong competitive advantages, with cross-border and international operations serving as the core drivers for its medium to long-term performance growth. The brokerage forecasts the company's revenue for 2026-2028 to be RMB 71.7 billion, 81.9 billion, and 91.8 billion, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 19.1 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.8 billion for the same period.
Caitong Securities' primary views are as follows:
**Core Views** On February 26, 2025, the company released its earnings announcement. Fourth-quarter 2025 net operating revenue reached RMB 15.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21%, surpassing expectations by 3.6%. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 3.4 billion (up 15% YoY), while adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.5 billion (up 15% YoY), exceeding expectations by 7.7%.
**Segment Performance** In Q4 2025, accommodation reservation revenue was RMB 6.3 billion (up 21% YoY), driven by robust demand for outbound and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue amounted to RMB 5.4 billion (up 12% YoY), with significant growth in international flight reservations. Package tour revenue reached RMB 1.1 billion (up 21% YoY), benefiting from the expansion of international services. Corporate travel management revenue was RMB 800 million (up 15% YoY), primarily due to growth in corporate clients.
**International Platform Growth** For the full year 2025, gross bookings on the company's international OTA platform increased by approximately 60% year-on-year. Trip.com serves as the core engine for the rising proportion of international revenue, contributing 18% of total revenue in Q4 2025. The company's ongoing international strategy continues to create room for long-term growth.
**AI Agent Impact** General-purpose AI Agents are expected to significantly divert traffic from traditional search and social media platforms. However, in the OTA context, which involves strong service fulfillment and complex supply chains, the company's competitive moat remains its transaction efficiency, supply chain integration, and fulfillment capabilities. Trip.com views AI-driven traffic as a new distribution channel, aiming to efficiently direct external AI traffic through deeper Agent-to-Agent transaction connections. Concurrently, by developing its own vertical AI Agents leveraging years of accumulated real booking data, user preferences, and high-quality reviews, the company continues to strengthen its advantages in real-time pricing, secure payments, and global 24/7 service—key "last-mile" aspects. This strategy is anticipated to enhance conversion efficiency and service premium capabilities over the medium to long term.
**Risk Warnings** Potential risks include weaker-than-expected service consumption, intensified competition in domestic and overseas markets, underwhelming results from AI applications in the cultural tourism sector, and adverse outcomes from regulatory investigations.
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