Barclays has issued a research report reiterating a "Neutral" rating on Tesla (TSLA.US), stating that fundamentals remain a "secondary factor" for the stock. The bank's analysts noted, "We believe Tesla's stock performance in 2025 will be primarily driven by narrative, while fundamentals appear to be overlooked."
CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly emphasized that "Tesla is fundamentally an AI company," identifying autonomous driving and robotics as key pillars for future growth. Tesla is currently preparing for another expansion of its Texas Gigafactory in the US, planning to build a dedicated facility for the mass production of its humanoid robot, Optimus, targeting an annual production capacity of 10 million units.
Musk also revealed that the company's Robotaxi fleet size is expected to double next month. Late last year, Tesla unusually published a compilation of pessimistic analyst delivery expectations on its official website, showing the average forecast for Q4 deliveries was 422,850 vehicles, a 15% year-over-year decline, which was more pessimistic than the market consensus of 440,000 units.
Twenty institutions, including Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays, participated in the estimates. Based on current projections, Tesla's full-year 2025 deliveries are expected to drop to approximately 1.64 million vehicles, an 8% year-over-year decrease, marking a second consecutive year of sales contraction following the 1.789 million vehicles (down 1% YoY) delivered in 2024.
Notably, Tesla explicitly stated that it "does not endorse any of the information, advice, or conclusions from the analysts," merely presenting the compiled consensus data objectively. Typically, Tesla aggregates sell-side analyst forecasts for future delivery data, but such information has historically been distributed via email by the investor relations team to specific analysts and major investment institutions, rarely made public.
Market analysis suggests that Tesla's current decision to publicize this relatively low consensus expectation data seems intended to lower market expectations ahead of the official delivery and production report scheduled for early January 2026. Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Advisors, commented that this move is "highly unusual." He speculates that Tesla's actual delivery figure will likely be around 420,000 units.
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