Bitcoin's price briefly fell to $72,643 during Asian trading hours on the 11th, and although it later recovered somewhat, it remained capped below the $74,000 mark, with market sentiment significantly pressured by U.S. inflation data coming in above expectations.
According to Woofun AI, the current BTC trend is being driven by three core variables: the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) release, the quarterly earnings performance of artificial intelligence infrastructure companies, and the risk that the world's largest Bitcoin-holding company, Strategy (MSTR.US), could be removed from the MSCI (MSCI.US) index.
As October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that inflation stickiness is strengthening, market concerns about the Federal Reserve further tightening monetary policy have intensified, making the trajectory of prices and the actual implementation of the AI investment cycle key anchors for Bitcoin's short-term direction.
In the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector, the performance of CoreWeave (CRWV.US) temporarily eased some market worries about a slowdown in AI capital expenditure.
The company's third-quarter revenue reached $3.661 billion, surging 168% year-over-year, not only far exceeding the market expectation range of $3.54 billion to $3.56 billion, but its net loss per share of $1.27 was also lower than analyst forecasts.
Based on strong business growth, CoreWeave raised its full-year revenue guidance from $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion up to $13.0 billion to $13.3 billion, driving its stock price up more than 5% in after-hours trading at one point.
However, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the company still recorded a net loss of $709 million in the third quarter, with interest expenses reaching as high as $846 million, indicating that high financing costs remain a heavy burden for AI infrastructure construction, and financial pressure has not been completely eliminated by revenue growth.
Next, market attention will shift to the earnings disclosures of Nebius (NBIS.US) and Applied Materials (AMAT.US).
Nebius is scheduled to hold a conference call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the 12th, while Applied Materials will release its earnings after market close on the 12th, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time that day.
Applied Materials' data is particularly critical, as it directly reflects the prosperity of the semiconductor equipment industry and AI-related equipment investment demand.
If these two companies can sustain CoreWeave's strong momentum, it may help contain the tech stock sell-off; conversely, if their results fall short of expectations, risk asset aversion could heat up again, thereby placing additional downward pressure on BTC.
The release of macro inflation data will become another major trigger for market volatility this week.
The U.S. October PPI data will be published at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on the 13th, with the market expecting headline PPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and core PPI to rise 0.3%.
This heightened attention stems from the earlier CPI data beating expectations: October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the expected 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, also above the expected 0.2%.
In addition, September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, far exceeding market expectations at the time.
If PPI data again comes in stronger than expected, concerns about producer-level prices transmitting to the consumer level will further intensify.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME.US) FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to around 90%, the probability of a 50 basis point hike has climbed from near zero to around 10%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is down to single digits.
Notably, before the CPI data was released, Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller warned that if core CPI rose by more than 0.3%, a stronger policy response might be needed, and hinted at considering a 50 basis point hike in December.
Since actual core CPI precisely hit the 0.3% threshold, the market quickly priced in a larger rate hike, with the intraday probability of a 50 basis point hike even briefly approaching 15%.
Although The Conference Board still maintains its forecast of 25 basis point hikes in December and March of next year, if PPI data remains elevated, the resonance effect of rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and a tech stock pullback will pose a severe challenge to Bitcoin.
BTC's own supply-demand structural risks also cannot be ignored.
Whether Strategy will be removed from the MSCI index is another sword hanging over the market.
MSCI will announce the results of its November regular index review at 6:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 12th, and Strategy explicitly stated in its third-quarter report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that under the new criteria, its Class A common stock is likely to be excluded from the MSCI index.
Although this change will not directly force Bitcoin sales, if Strategy's stock price falls as a result and financing conditions deteriorate, its ability to increase Bitcoin holdings in the future could be weakened, thereby constituting a potential downside risk.
Overall, whether Bitcoin can stabilize and rebound below $74,000 depends on the sustainability of the AI investment cycle and the evolution of U.S. price levels.
CoreWeave has passed the first test, but the earnings of Nebius and Applied Materials as well as the PPI data on the 13th remain key variables.
If PPI data again exceeds expectations, the market may have to seriously confront the reality of a 50 basis point rate hike in December, rather than merely staying with the expectation of a 25 basis point hike.
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