CHINAGOLDINTL (02099) delivered robust performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant revenue and net profit growth, achieving a turnaround from losses. This was primarily driven by rising gold and copper prices and cost optimization. The company's gold and copper production and sales volumes steadily increased, with full-year output likely exceeding guidance. As the Jiama Mine gradually resumes operations and expands capacity, future growth prospects remain promising. The current stock price implies a PE of 13.9x/10.5x/9.4x for 2025-2027. Given its diversified gold-copper portfolio, substantial resource reserves, and strong growth potential, Guosen Securities reiterated an "Outperform" rating.
**Key Financial Highlights** CHINAGOLDINTL reported Q1-Q3 revenue of $925 million, up 99.83% YoY, and net profit of $341 million (versus a loss YoY). Q3 net profit reached $141 million, up 22.43% QoQ, benefiting from higher metal prices and improved Jiama Mine sales discounts.
**Production & Sales** - Gold: Output of 4.02 tonnes and sales of 4.21 tonnes (Changshanhao Mine: 2.12 tonnes produced, 2.34 tonnes sold; Jiama Mine: 1.90 tonnes produced, 1.87 tonnes sold). - Copper: Output of 54,100 tonnes and sales of 53,300 tonnes. - 2025 Guidance: Changshanhao gold output is projected at 2.4–2.6 tonnes; Jiama Mine targets 2.15–2.3 tonnes of gold and 63,000–67,000 tonnes of copper. Full-year production is expected to surpass guidance.
**Cost Optimization** - Changshanhao’s gold production cost averaged $1,639/oz. - Jiama Mine’s Q1-Q3 copper cost was $3.23/lb (Q1: $3.41; Q2: $3.19; Q3: $3.13), with byproduct credits reducing net costs to $0.40/lb (Q3: $0.16/lb).
**Operations Update** - **Changshanhao**: An open-pit mine with a designed capacity of 60,000 tonnes/day (revised to 40,000 tonnes/day in 2019). As surface mining nears depletion, underground operations are expected to commence in 2029–2030, with transitional output stabilizing at ~2.7 tonnes/year. - **Jiama Mine**: A polymetallic deposit (underground/open-pit) with 50,000 tonnes/day capacity. Operations were suspended in March 2023 due to a tailings spill but partially resumed in May 2024 (34,000 tonnes/day). The Phase III tailings facility, slated for H1 2027, will boost capacity to 44,000 tonnes/day.
**Earnings Forecast & Valuation** Guosen raised 2025–2027 revenue estimates to $1.28 billion (+68.8% YoY), $1.44 billion (+12.7%), and $1.56 billion (+8.6%), and net profit to $502 million (+700.4%), $666 million (+32.7%), and $740 million (+11.0%). EPS is projected at $1.27, $1.68, and $1.87, respectively.
**Risks**: Potential shortfalls in metal prices, production/cost targets, or project timelines.
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