**Gold Market Trend Analysis:** On December 8, gold price movements were influenced by cautious market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. As of the evening in Beijing, the U.S. dollar index dipped slightly by 0.04% to 99.0075, while spot gold rose 0.36% to $4,223.66 per ounce. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up 0.46% to 4.119%. Trading volumes remained subdued, reflecting investor caution before key risk events. The market's focus has shifted from pure data validation to pricing in potential diverging policy paths among major central banks, particularly the Fed and the Bank of Japan. This quiet period marks a phase of capital flow rebalancing and asset price adjustments.
**Technical Analysis for Gold:** Spot gold has been consolidating after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, with upward momentum stalling near $4,260 due to lack of follow-through buying. The 4-hour chart shows gold oscillating around the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), indicating short-term neutrality. However, the overall uptrend remains intact, with dips likely to attract bargain hunters. A clear break above $4,260 could reignite bullish momentum, potentially targeting $4,300 and testing the all-time high near $4,381. On the downside, initial support lies at $4,160–$4,170, followed by the 100-period SMA near $4,141.
**Trading Strategy for Gold:** For the opening of the week, focus on support at $4,170, with potential upside targets at $4,220–$4,230 or $4,250. Key support zones are $4,160–$4,155. On the upside, consider short positions near $4,240, with a critical resistance zone at $4,260–$4,265. Overall, the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies with secondary buy-on-dips opportunities. Key resistance levels are $4,225–$4,245, while support lies at $4,175–$4,155.
**Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:** Oil prices extended their rebound during Friday’s U.S. session, driven by improving macro expectations and supply uncertainties. WTI’s front-month contract rose 1.2% to settle at $59.67 per barrel, signaling a shift toward bullish sentiment. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut cycle next week are fueling optimism for looser financial conditions, which could support energy demand. The oil market currently benefits from a "supportive macro outlook, tight supply, and strengthening technicals."
**Technical Analysis for Crude Oil:** On the daily chart, oil prices are in a secondary consolidation phase, with alternating bullish and bearish candles testing the $56 support level. The MACD indicator is hovering near the zero line, showing weak bearish momentum. A break below $56 could signal a medium-term downtrend. On the 1-hour chart, oil found support at the lower end of its range, maintaining an upward bias within the range. Early trading saw a pullback from the $60 level, but the short-term trend remains upward. Momentum has shifted from neutral to bullish dominance.
**Trading Strategy for Crude Oil:** The recommended approach is to buy on dips with secondary sell-on-rally opportunities. Key resistance levels are $61.5–$62.5, while support lies at $59.0–$58.0. Limited upside potential is expected within the current range.
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