Whether OpenAI can successfully complete a new round of massive financing is no longer just a question of its own survival, but has become a key variable determining the trading logic of the entire AI sector. While market rumors suggest OpenAI's next funding round could reach a staggering $150 to $170 billion, if true, this would secure its funding chain until 2030 and potentially propel the entire AI sector significantly higher. However, real-world uncertainties are mounting. According to a previous article, NVIDIA's Jensen Huang clarified on January 31st that while the chip giant "will absolutely participate" in OpenAI's latest funding round, the amount is nowhere near as large as external speculation suggested. On February 2nd, it was reported that this funding shortfall has triggered a chain reaction, directly impacting Oracle, which provides computing power to OpenAI. Oracle had previously booked a $300 billion contract with OpenAI into its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which supported its stock's earlier surge. Analysts point out that now, with adjustments in the willingness of core investors to contribute, investors are beginning to question whether OpenAI has the ability to pay this astronomical sum, and whether Oracle's accounting treatment of booking the full amount was prudent. The report indicates that Oracle currently faces a dilemma: on one hand, it needs to raise funds through equity issuance to defend its investment-grade credit rating, while on the other, it must address shareholder dilution concerns following a stock price that has halved since its peak last September. There is immense uncertainty surrounding the scale of the financing. The final size of OpenAI's current funding round is the decisive factor determining capital flows within the AI industry chain. On February 2nd, the latest market rumor circulating on social platform X suggested that OpenAI's next funding round could be as high as $150 to $170 billion, an optimistic expectation viewed as the fuel needed for the entire AI complex to continue its meteoric rise.
However, the actual progress on the financing front is filled with variables. A report last Friday stated that due to internal reservations at NVIDIA, a letter of intent disclosed by both parties in September—outlining a deal where NVIDIA would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI over multiple years—has now stalled. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang clarified on January 31st; when asked if the investment would exceed $100 billion, he explicitly stated, "No, no, not at all like that." Although he confirmed NVIDIA's definite participation in OpenAI's latest round, a reduction in the investment scale is certain. To fill the funding gap, OpenAI is seeking support from other giants. After investing $22.5 billion in OpenAI last December and raising its stake to 11%, SoftBank is negotiating a further investment of up to $30 billion. Additionally, Amazon is also in discussions with OpenAI about participating in this funding round. Given that OpenAI is estimated to carry various commitments totaling up to $1.4 trillion, its ability to successfully raise massive funds from these investors will directly determine its capacity to fulfill its obligations. Oracle's $300 Billion Gambit The relationship between OpenAI and NVIDIA has long been seen as emblematic of the "circularity" of AI deals: NVIDIA invests in OpenAI, OpenAI uses the funds to purchase computing power from Oracle, and Oracle then uses this revenue to buy NVIDIA's chips. The uncertainty surrounding OpenAI's financing exposes its core supplier, Oracle, to significant risk. As of November 30th, Oracle reported Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) of $523 billion, a figure approximately nine times its revenue over the past four quarters. Notably, this includes a $300 billion contract related to OpenAI. In early September last year, it was precisely because the financial report showed RPO had more than quadrupled from the previous quarter that Oracle's stock price surged by as much as 36% in a single day. Oracle spokesperson Deborah Hellinger stated:
"The NVIDIA-OpenAI deal has zero impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI. We are confident in OpenAI's ability to raise capital and meet its commitments."
However, according to accounting standards, the $300 billion can only be booked into RPO if management judges collection to be "probable." If OpenAI cannot pay in full, or if other customers need to fill the void, the credibility of the booked data will be significantly diminished. This also presents an urgent question for Oracle's management: in the upcoming financial report, will they still deem the collection of $300 billion from OpenAI as "probable"? This judgment will directly impact market confidence. Oracle's Battle to Defend its Balance Sheet Amid concerns over OpenAI's履约能力 and its own debt levels, Oracle is taking action to safeguard its financial credibility. On February 1st, Oracle announced plans to issue up to $20 billion in common stock this year, part of a broader strategy to raise $45 to $50 billion through a combination of equity and debt financing aimed at expanding its cloud infrastructure business. The report stated that while this move would dilute shareholder equity—and comes after the stock price has fallen by about half from its peak last September—in the current climate of AI deal uncertainty, increasing the equity buffer is seen as a prudent step. Oracle is currently borrowing heavily to build data centers, investments that rely heavily on the contracts signed with OpenAI. Market concerns are already visible in the bond market. Oracle's current credit rating is BBB, and it has been placed on negative watch by S&P and Moody's, facing a potential downgrade. Some of Oracle's debt, including 10-year notes issued in September, has recently traded near junk bond levels, and its debt default protection costs have soared.
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