Citi issued a research report stating that this year marks the 18th year of China's major e-commerce platforms competing during Double 11, and platform strategies have undergone a significant shift, moving comprehensively away from the complex "order-bundling rules" of the past toward "direct price reductions." This move not only helps curb fraudulent order brushing and reduce return rates, but also allows subsidy resources to be more precisely directed toward high lifetime value (LTV) core membership groups such as 88VIP and JD Plus, while simultaneously driving merchants to broadly adopt AI technology to unlock operational efficiency gains.
Citi maintained its "Buy" ratings on Alibaba (09988.HK), JD-SW (09618.HK), and PDD Holdings Inc (PDD.US), while keeping a "Neutral" rating on Vipshop (VIPS.US).
Citi expects that this year the major players will continue the practice of not disclosing total GMV figures, instead focusing on specific category performance, user engagement, and AI-driven sales metrics. After experiencing a base of 4% year-on-year industry GMV growth during the 2026 "618" period, Citi estimates that overall industry GMV for this year's Double 11 will record a low-to-mid single-digit year-on-year increase, with the main growth drivers coming from the rapid expansion of Douyin e-commerce, the strong performance of JD's service categories, and intense competition in the instant retail segment.
However, third-party data agency Syntun has a more optimistic forecast, expecting total network-wide GMV for this year's Double 11 to grow 14.2% year-on-year to 1.7 trillion RMB, with the comprehensive e-commerce portion rising 12.3% to 1.62 trillion RMB; Douyin will join Tmall and JD in firmly holding the top three positions in the industry.
Looking at performance by platform, the giants have all had encouraging starts. Within the first 4 hours of Tmall's sales launch, 124 brands surpassed 100 million RMB in transaction value, and 27,681 brands exceeded last year's same-period sales on the first day, mainly benefiting from merchants' widespread application of AI tools and surging demand in key subsidized categories such as digital electronics and smartphones; JD-SW (09618.HK) kicked off on October 12 with a focus on "official direct price cuts, no bundling needed," recording double-digit year-on-year growth in transacting users on its launch day; Douyin showed strong momentum in livestreaming and fast-moving consumer goods categories; Kuaishou (01024.HK) leveraged its full-domain AI operating tools and tiered traffic subsidies for precise empowerment.
In addition, the instant retail segment also demonstrated strong explosive power. Driven jointly by Meituan (03690.HK) Flash Purchase, Taobao Flash Purchase, and JD Instant Delivery, transaction value during the previous "618" period already surged 112.3% year-on-year, and this strong growth momentum will continue during Double 11.
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