On Thursday, April 30, international gold prices halted their decline and rebounded to close higher. The gains not only recovered Wednesday's losses but also recouped some of Tuesday's declines, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. This rebound was driven by Japanese authorities intervening in the foreign exchange market by buying yen and selling US dollars to support the yen's value. This action caused the US dollar index to fall sharply, dropping to near the 98 level during the session and erasing gains from previous days. Additionally, a pullback in crude oil prices after a significant rally contributed to the overall upward movement in gold. In the short term, the rebound is expected to continue.
However, gold still faces resistance near the middle Bollinger Band and the 100-day moving average. Furthermore, comments from former President Trump about potentially breaking the Iran ceasefire agreement and inflation concerns stemming from the Iran situation may limit the strength of the rebound. Therefore, until prices move back above the 100-day moving average, there remains a risk of encountering resistance and pulling back.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,543.80 per ounce, initially recording a low of $4,538.78. It then rebounded. Although prices retraced during the midday session, erasing morning gains, bullish forces re-emerged, leading to sustained strength. The rally continued into the European session, reaching a high of $4,646.93 around 18:00 GMT. Prices subsequently retraced and entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4,621.44. The daily trading range was $108.15, with a gain of $77.64, or 1.71%.
Looking ahead to Friday, May 1, international gold opened higher. While a pullback to fill the gap is possible due to resistance and expectations of a temporary halt in the dollar's decline during the early session, the US dollar index has fallen back below its 200-day and middle Bollinger Band moving averages. Bearish momentum for the dollar is increasing, with technical indicators turning bearish, suggesting a weaker short-term trend which should support gold prices. Although crude oil has retreated, its technical outlook remains strong, and fundamental conditions have not significantly improved. Therefore, for gold, the trend for the day or the coming week is expected to be primarily consolidative or upward.
Key data to watch today includes the final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April. Market expectations lean towards these figures being negative for gold. However, based on yesterday's data and price action, the downside potential from negative news appears limited, and any pullback may still present a buying opportunity. Consequently, the strategy for the day remains focused on buying on dips.
From a technical perspective, on the monthly chart, gold concluded April with a close below the 5-month moving average, indicating strengthening bearish momentum and suggesting a potential for consolidation or a downward move. Key support remains the rising trendline; as long as prices hold above this level, the bull market prospects remain intact. If prices rebound this month and close above the 5-month moving average around $4,800, it would significantly increase bullish momentum, potentially targeting $5,200. Conversely, failure to do so would suggest a weaker, consolidative adjustment.
On the weekly chart, gold has previously faced repeated resistance at the 10-week moving average. This week, prices declined from that level but have now rebounded after testing support near the 30-week moving average. If this week closes maintaining this pattern, it would suggest a potential rebound next week, possibly retesting the $4,800 level or breaking higher. However, technical indicators remain in a bearish signal. If next week closes lower without forming a hammer candlestick pattern, it would indicate a continued downtrend. Otherwise, it would strengthen the expectation of a bottom forming, signaling a buying opportunity.
On the daily chart, gold has found support and rebounded near the 144-day moving average, recovering Wednesday's losses. This has formed a potential bullish engulfing pattern, suggesting the possibility of further short-term strength, targeting the 100-day moving average around $4,760 or the 60-day moving average around $4,860, with a potential breakout. Support to watch remains the 144-day moving average; a break below this level would necessitate waiting for a test of the 200-day moving average support before considering new long positions.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading level references are provided below. Exact entry and exit points should be confirmed via real-time notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,610 and $4,580; resistance levels are around $4,670 and $4,710. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $73.70 and $73.10; resistance levels are around $75.30 and $76.20.
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