According to Woofun AI, New York's digital asset market posted a significant decline on the 26th local time, with the primary driver being Bitcoin (BTC)'s failure to reclaim the key psychological threshold of 80,000. The breakdown of this price resistance level, combined with a wave of concentrated liquidations of large leveraged positions and a substantial drop in spot purchasing power, weighed on overall investor sentiment. Although liquidity has accumulated above the main price range due to the unwinding of heavy sell orders, providing a technical foundation for a potential rebound, the market's near-term trend remains weak.
CoinMarketCap data showed that the total market capitalization of the entire digital asset market stood at 2.68 trillion on the day, down 0.61% from the previous day; meanwhile, 24-hour trading volume surged to 68.42 billion, a jump of 84.35%, reflecting unusually elevated trading activity during the decline. Bitcoin's dominance in the overall market held at 60.0%, while the Fear and Greed Index came in at 43, at a "neutral" level, indicating that market sentiment is neither panicked nor greedy, but rather stuck in a wait-and-see mode. Bitcoin oscillated repeatedly around the 80,000 mark, touching that level twice during the session but failing to sustain upward momentum both times, finally closing at 79,841.94, down 0.81% from the prior day.
Major altcoins broadly followed the market lower, though some assets showed divergent characteristics. Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.49% to 2,312.22; Ripple (XRP) dropped 0.35% to 1.29; SOL declined 1.22% to 100.35; and Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped 0.26% to 0.07704. In contrast, Binance Coin (BNB) edged up 0.08% to 742.13; ZEC rose 1.05% to 1,229.82; and HYPE was the strongest performer, gaining 2.50% to reach 78.93. This divergence suggests capital may be seeking safe havens or looking for opportunities in specific sectors.
The shock from large-scale liquidations and weak spot demand became the core factors constraining a market rebound. Over the weekend, Bitcoin's price plunged sharply from 84,800 to 79,100. Crypto analyst @CryptoReviewing noted on X that approximately 1.3 billion in positions were forcibly liquidated during this decline. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that current market liquidity distribution exhibits a clear range-concentration pattern: within the 76,500 to 79,500 range, 2.2 billion in liquidity is clustered; within the 81,000 to 84,000 range, 3.1 billion in liquidity is present. @CryptoReviewing particularly cautioned that with spot purchasing demand remaining persistently weak, if leverage continues to rise, any short-term rebound will be difficult to sustain, as there is no genuine buying support.
The divergence in institutional capital flows further heightened market uncertainty. Early last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw 1.075 billion in inflows, demonstrating initial institutional interest; however, 774 million in outflows followed, leaving net weekly inflows at only about 301 million. This weak net inflow state indicates that institutional capital remains cautious near current price levels and has not formed a strong buying consensus. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 81,000 threshold has become the key dividing line for current market direction, especially as the Federal Reserve is about to make its interest rate decision, with macro policy uncertainty significantly increasing market volatility.
Bugal Wushi Zade, CEO of Matcha Exchange, believes that Bitcoin is strengthening its resilience against macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks. He pointed out that as the trading structure gradually shifts toward institutional derivatives and spot ETFs, market mechanisms have become more mature, and once negative factors ease, Bitcoin's upward trend could re-emerge. This view emphasizes the supportive role of structural changes for long-term prices, rather than short-term fluctuations.
Market participants hold differing expectations for movements before and after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. @KillaXBT forecasts that Bitcoin's price could see 10% to 15% volatility around the FOMC meeting, and if it rises, the price could break above 86,000 or even reach above 90,000. This optimistic expectation is based on bets on policy easing or positive news. Conversely, @CryptoMichNL takes a cautious view, analyzing that if Bitcoin fails to break through the 81,000 threshold, it may try again to return to the 78,400 to 79,100 range; if there is insufficient buying support within that range, the price could also fall below 76,000.
Overall, the market is currently at a critical stage of observing whether Bitcoin can reclaim the 81,000 threshold and whether spot demand improves. Given the suspense surrounding the Fed's interest rate decision and the liquidity impact from large-scale liquidations, short-term market volatility is likely to intensify further, and investors need to guard against the dual shocks of leverage risk and macro policy.
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