Venezuela is contemplating a departure from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), an organization it helped establish over six decades ago, even as the United States pursues significant ownership positions in Venezuelan oil fields. If both developments materialize, they would mark a comprehensive political and economic pivot by the South American producer toward Washington.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that Venezuelan officials are exploring the possibility of leaving OPEC. In parallel, negotiators from both nations have been discussing arrangements that would grant the US substantial equity in multiple Venezuelan oil fields, with one proposal involving lease agreements extending up to a century, according to individuals briefed on the talks. The White House declined to comment on either topic, and Venezuela's information ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
On Friday, Brent crude slipped 0.6% to approximately $88 per barrel. Should these moves proceed, they would further erode OPEC's cohesion and pricing leverage while opening the door for US and other international oil companies to participate broadly in rebuilding Venezuela's petroleum sector. Analysts note that given Venezuela's sharply reduced output, its exit would have limited direct impact on near-term global prices, yet the symbolic weight would be considerable.
From Confrontation to Deep Entanglement
On January 3, US forces took control of Nicolas Maduro, who had ruled for years, and interim President Delcy Rodriguez assumed power. Since then, relations between Venezuela and the US have shifted from isolation and hostility toward cooperation, with the Trump administration exerting ongoing influence over Venezuelan policy through sanctions waivers, access to international financing channels, and practical control over oil revenue.
Washington has reopened its embassy in Caracas and is engaged in direct dialogue with Rodriguez and her inner circle. Chevron Corp, the second-largest US oil producer, reached an asset swap agreement with Venezuela in April that will substantially expand its operations there.
Trump himself has described Venezuela as "the 51st state" of the US, asserting American control over the country's oil resources. The discussions over acquiring oil field equity were first reported by Axios and subsequently confirmed by Bloomberg. Sources indicate that once equity is obtained, private companies, including US firms, would develop these fields and remit oil revenue to the Venezuelan government.
The proposed equity arrangement aligns with the Trump administration's broader pattern of expanding resource influence abroad. The administration has previously taken stakes in Intel, rare earth producer MP Materials, and lithium miner Lithium Americas, and last year established a joint investment fund with Ukraine backed by revenue from that country's mineral, oil, and gas projects.
Venezuela's OPEC Status: From Founding Member to Peripheral Player
Venezuela was one of OPEC's five founding members in 1960, with its then-oil minister Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo widely regarded as the organization's most important architect. Over subsequent decades, OPEC profoundly shaped the global energy landscape, from the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s to the deep production cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Venezuela also played a key role in the creation of the OPEC+ alliance in 2016, which integrated core producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia into a broader coalition.
However, years of US sanctions and domestic political turmoil have drastically shrunk Venezuela's oil industry. According to Bloomberg survey data, the country produced about 1.16 million barrels per day in July, less than half of what it produced a decade ago, despite some recovery this year. Given its limited output, Venezuela is currently exempt from OPEC production quotas. Sources say that upon exiting, Caracas would be free to maximize long-term output without quota constraints, potentially pressuring oil prices.
OPEC Under Pressure: Exits Undermine Alliance Foundations
Venezuela's consideration of leaving OPEC comes at a sensitive moment when the organization is already grappling with cohesion challenges. Just four months ago, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, raising broader questions about the cartel's unity and pricing power. Other members, including Iraq, have also publicly expressed dissatisfaction with their membership obligations.
Analysts point out that if Venezuela follows suit, it would intensify doubts about whether Saudi-led OPEC can sustain its market influence. Should the alliance fragment further, members might descend into intense competition for market share, potentially replaying the brief price war of 2020.
From a broader perspective, OPEC's influence has been steadily eroded by US shale producers and major discoveries in countries such as Guyana and Brazil. Venezuela's potential exit could accelerate the organization's decline while adding yet another variable to the global oil supply glut anticipated by the International Energy Agency and other forecasting bodies.
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