美国芯片巨头狂砸3200亿！芯片产能大爆发，行情继续火热？

e公司2021-07-19

全球芯片荒之下，老牌美国芯片巨头英特尔正在酝酿新的超级并购。近日，有消息称，英特尔正在考虑以300亿美元（合约人民币1937亿元）的价格收购美国晶圆代工厂商Global Foundries（格罗方德半导体，简称格芯）。更早之前，英特尔还宣布，拟在美国亚利桑那州投资约200亿美元新建两座晶圆厂。这也意味着，英特尔动用的资金约500亿美元，折合人民币超3200亿元。英特尔还表示向外部客户开放晶圆...

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Chip production capacity exploded and the market continued to be hot?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f8fef753b97340b0f84191459be9bb","symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"03145":0.9,"EWT":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"SMSN.UK":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"TWmain":0.9},"content_text":"全球芯片荒之下，老牌美国芯片巨头英特尔正在酝酿新的超级并购。\n近日，有消息称，英特尔正在考虑以300亿美元（合约人民币1937亿元）的价格收购美国晶圆代工厂商Global Foundries（格罗方德半导体，简称格芯）。\n更早之前，英特尔还宣布，拟在美国亚利桑那州投资约200亿美元新建两座晶圆厂。这也意味着，英特尔动用的资金约500亿美元，折合人民币超3200亿元。英特尔还表示向外部客户开放晶圆代工业务。这意味着，英特尔跨入代工服务，将直接与台积电、三星竞争。\n值得注意的是，中国国内芯片产能正在快速增长，有望带来产业链更多投资机会。\n英特尔加码芯片制造\n全球芯片产业发展迭代过程中，形成了两种主流发展模式：\n一种是以台积电为代表的Foundry模式，即只专注晶圆体代工环节。基于这种模式，包括高通、联发科以及海思在内的芯片设计厂商不断兴起，它们可以只负责芯片电路设计，生产、封装测试等环节都可以外包，反向促进了台积电的不断壮大。\n另一种是以英特尔为代表的IDM模式，即芯片从设计到成品的整个过程都由制造商负责，这种模式可以保证产品从设计到制造环节的一体性。\n但是英特尔新CEO上台之后，明显加大对芯片制造端的投入，并且希望在代工上和台积电等一决高下。\n收购美国晶圆代工厂商格芯是其中最重要的一步。\n据调研机构TrendForce数据显示，目前在全球半导体晶圆代工营收市场中，台积电、三星、联电包揽前三，格芯排名第四。在今年一季度，格芯营收达13亿美元，在半导体代工市场占据5%的份额，与中芯国际基本持平。\n对于产能规划，格芯首席执行官Tom Caulfield曾表示，拟继续扩大在美国和德国所有制造工厂的生产能力，并在新加坡开始建设300mm晶圆厂扩建的一期工程，计划在2023年投产。该期工程完工后，格芯每年将增加45万片晶圆的生产能力，新加坡生产基地的生产能力将提升至大约每年150万片晶圆（300mm）。\nWedbush Securities的分析师Matt Bryson表示，英特尔是半导体行业少数几家既设计又制造芯片的公司之一。但是，市场对英特尔的担忧之一是他们并不真正知道如何充当代工厂，而格芯将为他们提供一系列更广泛、更成熟的产能。\n事实上，英特尔这两年在先进制程上的尝试一直不是很成功。\n在竞争最为激烈的芯片先进制程上，英特尔公司目前最新的芯片还是采用14nm或10nm工艺，而台积电和三星等芯片代工厂目前已采用5nm工艺。虽然市场普遍认为在10nm芯片上英特尔公司领先市场，但是整体性能想和5nm相比还是勉为其难。\n英特尔公司最为重视的7nm芯片也遭遇了难产。2020年7月，英特尔公司宣布遭遇技术困难，将延期推出7nm芯片。\n英特尔公司宣布7nm制程延期后，开始重新设计技术流程，精简工艺结构，以确保产品能在2023 年顺利推出。而届时台积电和三星的3nm芯片或许已经实现量产。\n格芯在先进制程上已经停下脚步，专心优化成熟制程，收购如果完成，双方在制程上可以达到互补。\n英特尔在芯片制造端的野心在新CEO上任之后就充分展露。\n3月份，英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格在网络直播中宣布，计划斥资200亿美元在美国新建两座晶圆厂，进而大幅提高先进芯片制造能力。\n同时，英特尔表示，将向外部客户开放晶圆代工业务。帕特·基辛格宣布，英特尔将成为代工产能的主要提供商，开启“IDM 2.0”模式。为了实现这一愿景，英特尔正在建立一个新的独立业务部门，由半导体行业资深人士Randhir Thakur博士领导，他们将直接向帕特·基辛格汇报。\n对此，路透社评价称，这一战略将直接挑战世界上另外两家先进的芯片制造厂商——中国台湾的台积电和韩国的三星电子。但报道同时指出，即便英特尔即将与台积电、三星展开竞争，它也计划成为这两家公司的更大客户，让它们为英特尔生产名为“tiles”的芯片部件，以提高某些芯片的成本效益。\n市值仅有台积电三成\n从股价上看，截至7月16日，英特尔股价为54.97美元每股，年内涨幅约为11%。同期，台积电股价也上涨了11%左右。\n\n业绩上看，台积电公司日前发布了2季度，当季3721.45亿元新台币(约合133.06亿美元) 同比增长19.8%，实现1343.59亿元新台币(约合48.04亿美元)的净利润，同比增长11.2%。但是净利润表现不及市场预期的1361亿新台币。\n财报发布后，当地时间周四台积电美股震荡下滑，导致股价大跌5.67%，报117.34美元/股，市值蒸发355.8亿美元（约合人民币2297亿元），并较今年2月的历史最高点下跌17%，目前总市值6000亿美元左右。第二季度，台积电5纳米芯片出货量占晶圆总收入的18%，7纳米占31%。\n此外，在先进工艺方面，台积电宣布4nm试产将按进度本季开始，终端应用包含智能手机与高速运算（HPC）。台积电的3nm仍旧沿用FinFET（鳍式场效应晶体管），2nm时代才会上马GAA（环绕栅极晶体管），不过量产时间也有所延误，也是导致股价下滑的因素之一。\n但是英特尔的业绩也不容乐观。以4月23日公布的一季报来看，单季度英特尔营收197亿美元，超出市场预期的179亿美元，净利润34亿美元，与上年同期相比下滑41%。其中第二大收入源数据中心业务营收同比锐减20%，拖累业绩，毛利润也显着下滑5.4%，盘后股价一度大跌超5%。\n事实上，经过该次大跌，英特尔年内股价再也没有翻身，一直处于震荡盘整状态，比4月的年中高点跌去了约20%。\n虽然二者年内股价表现基本相同，但是市值差距已经显而易见。\n截至7月16日，台积电市总市值为6002亿美元，PE 30.7倍，PB 8.43倍。与之相对，英特尔的总市值为2219.69亿美元，PE 11.9倍，PB 2.78倍。台积电的市值和估值几乎都是英特尔的三倍。在此背景下，英特尔眼红台积电的代工业务，原因也就显而易见。\n全球芯片产业进入景气周期\n英特尔在产能上的投入并不是无的放矢。从全球市场来看，芯片的需求仍然存在较大增长空间。帕特·基辛格就预计，半导体行业将迎来10个增长的“好年景”，因为世界正变得越来越数字化，所有数字化的东西都需要半导体。\n根据世界半导体贸易统计协会（WSTS）最新公布的报告：2020年世界半导体产业增长5.1%，达4331.45亿美元。同时，WSTS预测2021年世界半导体产业将增长8.4%，达到4694.03亿美元，并超过2018年的4687.9亿美元，创出历史新高纪录。\n5G技术的进步推动物联网、高性能计算、AI、汽车电子等应用的普及，半导体的下游应用范围扩大也推动着半导体设备行业的持续成长。据SEMI最新数据预测，2021年和2022年半导体设备行业规模将达到718亿美元和762亿美元，维持8%以上的年均复合增速。\n去年以来，在全球“缺芯”的背景下，芯片涨价也一直没有停止，意法半导体(ST)集团、安森美等全球领先的功率半导体厂商也纷纷发布了涨价通知。\n在国内市场，晶丰明源表示，产品价格将根据具体产品型号做出不同程度的调整；集创北方上调全线LED驱动产品价格；辉芒微电子调涨电源管理芯片价格；菱奇半导体、东科半导体、辉芒微电子、瞬雷科技等企业也纷纷宣布涨价。\n诸多原因配合之下，全球芯片出货量持续增长，美国半导体协会(SIA)发布报告显示，5月全球半导体销售额数据达436亿美元，环比增长4.1%，同比增长26.2%，创下单月历史新高。另外，所有主要区域市场销售额均实现同比增长：欧洲 (31.2%)、亚太/其他地区(30.9%)、中国 (26.1%)、美洲 (20.9%) 、日本 (20.4%)。\n中国芯片产能爆发，国产机遇难得\n虽然英特尔的增产计划有助于提升美国在全球芯片制造端的地位，但是中国在芯片产能上的投入已经领先一步。\n据英国金融时报报道，美国在全球芯片制造产能中所占的份额从1990年的37%下降到了2020年的12%，而欧洲在此期间下降了35个百分点，降至9%。中国大陆的市场份额从几乎没有扩大到15%，这一数字预计在未来十年将增长到24%。\n从晶圆尺寸的产能来看，截至2019年，中国大陆300mm晶圆占比已增长至12%，200mm晶圆达到15%，150mm以下的占29%。自2017年以来，中国已建成39个半导体晶圆厂。在这些工厂中，有35家为中国独资工厂，其余为外资独资工厂。中国大陆拥有世界上进行中最多的半导体晶圆厂建设项目，目前有57个晶圆厂正在运营，有26个晶圆厂正在建设或计划中，其中300mm晶圆厂为19个，200mm的有7个。\n半导体设备的采购量也体现出中国半导体产业的快速发展，根据SEMI数据，2020年1季度全球半导体制造设备订单金额同比增加51%，其中中国大陆59.6亿美金，同比增加70%。伴随长江存储、合肥长鑫、中芯京城、华虹无锡等工厂的扩产，全球半导体制造产业有望向大陆转移，中国大陆半导体设备材料采购需求将持续提高。\n中国产业在成本上也具有优势。据美国半导体行业协会和波士顿咨询集团估计，中国大陆晶圆厂的成本比美国的低37%至50%。随着中国半导体产业链的不断完善，以及整体技术水平的提升，其在全球芯片制造业的竞争力不容小觑。\n“随着半导体产业国产化的进程加速，有利于国内设备厂商谋求发展机会。近期的产业链缺货以及美国对中国半导体产业链的限制，推动下游厂商寻求芯片供给的多样化以及国产化，以提高其供应链安全性，有利于国产化芯片厂商的扩产，也有利于国产半导体设备厂商的发展。”川财证分析师孙灿此前指出。\n中信建投也指出，5G、汽车、PC等多行业需求共振，驱动半导体长期成长，二季度行业缺货涨价持续。本轮半导体景气周期持续度将超出此前预期，预计延续至2022年。\n半导体国产化需求旺盛，为未来10年确定性投资主线，半导体设备周期向上，国产需求迫切；半导体材料逐步取得突破，具备放量基础；化合物半导体下游需求高增速，把握下个时代机遇；射频前端量价齐升，国产厂商有望跻身高端市场。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":173205133,"gmtCreate":1626660318622,"gmtModify":1703762865631,"author":{"id":"3578446798028290","authorId":"3578446798028290","authorIdStr":"3578446798028290","name":"Alexkoay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a71ab4735585e5f4103341ba016f09","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578446798028290"},"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173205133","repostId":1119317025,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5259531,"gmtCreate":1626668768039,"gmtModify":1663231152754,"authorId":3579527905061704,"author":{"id":3579527905061704,"authorId":3579527905061704,"name":"Ylychg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44bba94c2f5b09cfa3b014163f59f3ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":173205133,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"},{"id":5258484,"gmtCreate":1626660334684,"gmtModify":1663231148637,"authorId":3578446798028290,"author":{"id":3578446798028290,"authorId":3578446798028290,"name":"Alexkoay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a71ab4735585e5f4103341ba016f09","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master 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