Thursday Asian session early trading sees spot gold trading around $4,428.71 per ounce. After the release of the previous night's CPI data, the market experienced a sharp V-shaped reversal and washout, briefly dipping to $4,392.8 before buying pressure pushed prices back up to a fresh high of $4,441.39. Today's price action is consolidating within a high-range band.
On the news front, the US July CPI inflation figures met market expectations, showing a slight decline. This has reduced the probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, serving as the core driver for the recent rally. However, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil prices higher, raising the risk of a rebound in inflation. These opposing forces are currently balancing each other out. Continued net purchases of gold by global central banks provide underlying support for the medium-to-long-term price trajectory. Market participants should now watch for the direction of speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
On the daily chart, the bullish trend structure remains intact, with all key moving averages trending upwards. The 5-day moving average has risen to $4,405, serving as the primary dynamic support. The key defense level for the current rally is set at $4,372. Yesterday's candlestick formed a bullish hammer with a long lower shadow, confirming strong buying support at lower levels. The daily MACD maintains a bullish crossover, with the red histogram bars continuing to expand. The RSI has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a need for short-term correction. The current consolidation following the new highs is a normal process of position rotation, not a sign of the end of the bullish trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the upper Bollinger Band is slightly expanding, with the price trading near the upper band. The KDJ indicator has flattened and converged after a period of volatile movement. The medium-to-long-term bullish moving averages are well arranged, and the ascending channel with rising lows remains intact. On the 1-hour chart, the price is oscillating, alternating between bullish and bearish candles. The price is currently holding above the short-term moving averages, with immediate support at $4,412 and today's high of $4,449 acting as immediate resistance.
Combining all timeframes, the daily chart is bullish, the 4-hour chart is waiting for the overbought condition to be digested, and the 1-hour chart is in a high-range tug-of-war. The short-term outlook is for oscillatory consolidation. The recommended strategy is to trade within a range and avoid chasing highs. Key intraday support levels are $4,412 and $4,405. Short-term resistance levels are $4,441 and $4,480. Suggested trading strategy: On a pullback to the $4,403-$4,410 zone, enter a long position with a stop-loss below $4,395, targeting $4,438-$4,441. On a rally to the $4,440-$4,450 zone, enter a short position with a stop-loss above $4,460, targeting a take-profit near $4,410.
For silver, the daily chart moving averages maintain a bullish arrangement. The 5-day moving average at $65.10 provides short-term support, while the key defense level for the current rally is $64.20. Yesterday's candlestick formed a bullish hammer with a long lower shadow, indicating strong buying support at lower levels. The daily MACD maintains a bullish crossover, with the red histogram bars increasing. The RSI is in the overbought zone, suggesting a need for short-term correction, but the overall uptrend remains unchanged. On the 4-hour chart, the upper Bollinger Band is slightly expanding, with the price trading near the upper band. The KDJ indicator is consolidating and smoothing out. The cycle's low points are rising, and the ascending channel is intact. On the 1-hour chart, the price is oscillating at high levels, alternating between bullish and bearish candles. The price is holding above the short-term moving averages, with immediate resistance at $66.50. Suggested trading strategy: On a pullback to the $65.0-$65.2 zone, enter a long position with a stop-loss below $64.10, targeting $66.30-$66.50. On a rally to the $66.40-$66.60 zone, enter a short position with a stop-loss above $67.05, targeting a take-profit near $65.20.
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