U.S. stock indices declined across the board overnight, with U.S. December JOLTS job openings hitting a more than five-year low, significantly below expectations. U.S. Challenger job cuts for January reached 108,000, the highest for the period since 2009, surging 205% month-on-month. Initial jobless claims for the week rose to 231,000, increasing by 22,000 from the previous week, exceeding expectations, indicating economic weakness. The Hong Kong market was also affected, gapping down and fluctuating today, closing 1.21% lower. The new low in U.S. job openings is partly attributable to artificial intelligence. For instance, Anthropic's new model Claude Opus 4.6, with 1M context and adaptive reasoning capabilities, leads comprehensively in programming, financial analysis, and Office applications, surpassing GPT-5.2 by 144 Elo points. In tests, 16 AI agents developed a C compiler in two weeks and autonomously discovered 500 zero-day vulnerabilities. Officially, Claude Opus 4.6 performs adeptly in financial analysis, research, and Office suite tasks. This directly caused financial data services provider FactSet to plummet up to 10% during the session, with S&P Global, Moody's, and Nasdaq also declining. Many Hong Kong-listed software companies have already shown breakdown patterns. Investors need to carefully consider what further impacts may emerge.
On February 5, Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of State issued a security alert via a "virtual embassy in Tehran, Iran," stating that security controls are being strengthened nationwide in Iran, and the situation remains tense. Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short," recently issued a stern warning, suggesting Bitcoin could repeat its 2021-2022 crash pattern. This implies Bitcoin's price may fall further to $50,000 or even lower. According to CoinGlass data, over the past 24 hours, 579,506 positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, totaling $2.603 billion. Bitcoin, being a virtual asset, appears unable to withstand minor disturbances; gold seems more reliable as virtual assets can be easily disregarded. The bubble inflated by the U.S. was intended to draw in other central banks for harvesting, but it has not been effective and may ultimately backfire. The sharp decline indicates speculative capital sensing risk, creating a negative feedback loop for the stock market. The major players that rallied yesterday failed to sustain momentum; only several bank stocks managed to hold steady without declines. Capital flow is largely subdued.
The market has begun exploring bottom-tier sectors, such as long-declining automotive stocks. On February 5, NIO (09866) issued a profit forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected between RMB 700 million (approximately $100 million) and RMB 1.2 billion (approximately $172 million). This is mainly attributed to sustained sales growth in Q4 2025, favorable product mix driving automotive margin optimization, and the company's ongoing comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency measures. Positive momentum easily attracts capital, especially when valuations are low. As a February top pick, NIO (09866) represents a relatively safe bottom-fishing opportunity, rising nearly 7% today. LI Auto (02015) also saw activity; CEO Li Xiang previewed the new LI L9 on Weibo, stating it is not just a superior vehicle but also a pioneering embodied intelligent robot. The new generation LI L9 Livis edition is equipped with two self-developed "Mach 100" chips, boasting the world's strongest computing power of 2560 TOPS. Priced at RMB 559,800, the premium market is less crowded, provided the product is sufficiently compelling. The stock gained nearly 4% today. Currently, among automotive stocks, NIO (09866) and LI Auto (02015) show potential to break the deadlock, followed by Leapmotor (09863) and Geely (00175). Overseas markets represent a significant growth avenue.
With the Spring Festival approaching, the snack sector is entering a peak sales season. From wholesale markets to supermarket channels, holiday gift box sales are booming, with bulk-pack snacks leading the way. Major snack companies are operating at full capacity to ensure supply. The courier sector is a primary beneficiary of Spring Festival consumption. On February 4, ZTO Express-W (02057) announced that its estimated total revenue for 2025 is between RMB 48.5 billion and RMB 50 billion, representing an increase of approximately 9.5% to 12.9% compared to RMB 44.2807 billion in 2024. With a remaining share repurchase quota of $700 million as of September 2025, the company may restart its buyback plan around the upcoming earnings release. The stock has already entered an upward trend. SF Tongcheng (09699) expects profit attributable to company owners for 2025 to be no less than RMB 238 million, an increase of over 80% year-on-year; adjusted net profit is expected to be no less than RMB 376 million, up more than 158% year-on-year. The stock rose over 2% today.
Other gaining sectors include food, such as dairy. Current milk prices are bottoming, dairy cow inventory continues to shrink, farm losses are driving out inefficient capacity, and coupled with the implementation of temporary countervailing policies on EU dairy products, milk prices are expected to stabilize and recover by 2026, benefiting both upstream farms and downstream dairy companies. Upstream player Youran Dairy (09858) rose over 4%, while Mengniu Dairy (02319) gained over 3%. Other catalysts: Alibaba's Qianwen APP launched a "Spring Festival 3 Billion Freebies" campaign, initiating a "milk tea offensive." Freebie cards from Qianwen APP can be used at over 300,000 milk tea shops nationwide, with orders exceeding 1 million within three hours of the campaign's launch. Cha Bai Dao (02555) rose over 6%, and Gu Ming (01364) gained over 3%.
Some pharmaceutical stocks strengthened. InnoCare Pharma (09969) issued a profit alert, expecting 2025 revenue of RMB 2.37 billion, up approximately 134% year-on-year; it anticipates turning a net profit attributable to owners for the first time, reaching around RMB 630 million. The company's core product, orelabrutinib, is steadily gaining market share. The stock rose over 8% today. Federal Pharmaceutical (03933): its wholly-owned subsidiary Federal Biotech (Hengqin Zhuhai) obtained implied clinical trial approval from China's NMPA for its self-developed Class 1 innovative drug UBT251 injection for the treatment of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) comorbid with obesity. As China's first chemically synthesized GLP-1/GIP/GCG triple-target receptor agonist, UBT251 positions the company importantly in this drug research field. The stock gained over 3%.
On February 5 local time, media reports citing industry traders indicated that discounts on Russian oil exports to China hit a record high this week. Sellers are cutting prices to attract demand from China, the world's largest crude importer, to compensate for potential reduced purchases from India. The report suggested that if India stops buying Russian oil, China would become the sole major customer for Russia's discounted oil. Due to Western sanctions reducing Indian demand for Russian oil, Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, is facing difficulties, with floating storage of its oil continuously increasing. India has recently begun slowing purchases from Russia. In January, India's oil imports from Russia were about 1.2 million barrels per day, expected to drop to around 1 million barrels per day in February, and further to 800,000 barrels per day in March. This trend suggests oil purchase prices will continue to fall, which is highly beneficial for oil refining enterprises. Key Hong Kong market players include SINOPEC CORP (00386), SHANGHAI PECHEM (00338), and Sinopec Engineering (02386).
CTG DUTY-FREE (01880): New policies stimulate nearly 20% year-on-year growth in duty-free shopping; broad prospects underpinned by scarce resources. Data released by Sanya Customs shows that as of January 31, 2026, three months after the implementation of the new Hainan offshore duty-free policy, the total shopping volume at four offshore duty-free stores in Sanya reached RMB 6.858 billion, a nearly 20% year-on-year increase, highlighting the vitality and potential of the offshore duty-free consumption market. Analysis: The new duty-free policy is a significant stimulus for the company, with sustained sales growth already reflecting this. The company is a特许 operator holding scarce licenses and channel resources, possessing a full license portfolio (offshore/port/city/cruise) and an over 85% market share in Hainan offshore duty-free. Its core stores hold significant locational advantages. CTG Duty-Free directly sources from over 1,000 luxury brands, boasting strong supply chain scale effects and price advantages, with out-of-stock rates continuously declining. Policies like "purchase and pick up immediately" and "duty-free for island residents" are driving increases in both customer traffic and average spending. Sales in the first week after border closure surged 54.9% year-on-year. Additionally, the company's acquisition of DFS Greater China ($395 million) and strategic cooperation with LVMH via an H-share placement deepen its布局 in Hong Kong, Macau, and globally, enhancing high-end brand resources and member synergy. As Hainan becomes a tourism shopping hub, the status of traditional duty-free destinations like Hong Kong and South Korea is rapidly declining. Furthermore, global luxury brands are increasingly focusing on the Chinese market, enhancing China's bargaining power unprecedentedly. Prospectively, CTG Duty-Free's stores are currently mainly focused domestically, still in the early stages of global expansion, with considerable room for overseas development.
Comments