Following the new energy vehicle replacement cycle, the bus market in 2026 may return to a subdued state. Liu Yongtao, a senior industry expert, believes that maintaining flat sales volume in 2026 would already be a positive outcome for the bus industry. However, eliminating relatively backward enterprises and allowing dominant companies to gain greater market share and profit margins is beneficial for the industry. The sector cannot focus solely on volume growth; otherwise, it will fail to develop a healthy and sustainable development trend.
Recently, A-share listed bus companies have successively released their full-year 2025 performance forecasts. Overall, the performance of bus companies shows significant divergence. Some companies saw their net profit nearly triple in 2025, while others experienced increased sales without corresponding profit growth.
Specifically, Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.,Ltd. (600686.SH) and Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,Ltd. (000957.SZ) both achieved substantial net profit growth in 2025. However, Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd. (000868.SZ), which had the highest sales growth rate, turned from profit to loss. Meanwhile, Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. (600066.SH), the largest domestic bus manufacturer, did not issue a performance forecast. Its 2025 performance is expected to remain stable, with changes within ±50% year-on-year.
From a sales perspective, the bus industry experienced a long-awaited minor boom in 2025. Data from China Bus Statistics Information Network shows that the industry sold 137,212 buses over 6 meters in length in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.84%.
"We are currently in the peak period for replacing new energy buses that entered the market around 2015 and 2016. Calculated over an 8-year cycle, this peak falls roughly in 2024 and 2025. We previously anticipated that 2025 would be a minor high point for the bus industry in recent years," said bus industry expert Zhang Zhijun. He also noted that exports are a crucial driver of industry growth. The proportion of domestic bus exports has risen annually since 2018, reaching 41.01% in 2025 (for buses over 3.5 meters, including light buses).
Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.,Ltd., Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,Ltd., and Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. (using only first three quarters data) all showed significant year-on-year net profit growth in 2025. Only Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd. switched from profit to loss.
Specifically, Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.,Ltd. expects a 2025 net profit of approximately 463 million yuan, up 193.68% year-on-year. It forecasts a non-recurring net profit of about 187 million yuan, compared to a non-recurring net loss of 158 million yuan in 2024. The company attributed the performance improvement to steady growth in overseas markets, increased revenue and share from export business, and higher overall performance. However, non-recurring gains and profits decreased year-on-year mainly due to reduced reversal of credit impairment losses, lower government subsidies, and changes in gains from disposal of non-current assets.
According to the 2025 China Bus Export Sales Ranking released by China Bus Information Network, Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.,Ltd. exported 12,255 buses (over 3.5 meters) last year, a surge of 64.90% year-on-year, capturing a 15.65% market share. Across the industry, the company ranked second in export sales volume, growth rate, and market share in 2025.
Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,Ltd. expects a 2025 net profit between 320 million and 410 million yuan, an increase of 28.28% to 64.36% year-on-year. It forecasts a non-recurring net profit between 290 million and 380 million yuan, growing 35.47% to 77.52% year-on-year.
The company stated that during the reporting period, it actively seized market opportunities, fully advanced its market expansion strategy, achieved significant breakthroughs in multiple regions and business segments, and further optimized its domestic and international market layout. By continuously promoting market structure transformation and accelerating product portfolio upgrades, it steadily enhanced its core competitiveness.
Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,Ltd. did not specify the exact reasons for its performance improvement. Unlike Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.,Ltd.'s substantial export increase, Zhongtong's export sales reached 6,335 units in 2025, a mere 1.85% year-on-year growth, significantly lagging behind the industry's average growth rate of 26.68%.
Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd., which did not issue a full-year forecast, achieved a net profit of 3.292 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 35.38% year-on-year. Its non-recurring net profit was approximately 2.616 billion yuan, increasing 26.30% year-on-year. Regarding overseas exports, Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. sold 17,149 units in 2025, a growth of 22.49% year-on-year.
Compared to Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.,Ltd., the net profit growth rates for Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,Ltd. and Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. (first three quarters data) were considerably smaller. Liu Yongtao commented on this: "This is because the profit from selling traditional buses overseas is not as high as from new energy buses. In 2025, the proportion of new energy exports for Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,Ltd. was only 22.84%, while Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. was slightly higher at 23.39%. Both companies' new energy export shares just reached the industry average."
Notably, Yutong Bus Co.,Ltd. achieved rapid profit growth for two consecutive years from 2023 to 2024. In 2024, its net profit was 4.116 billion yuan, surging 126.53% year-on-year. Affected by the high base, the net profit growth rate moderated in the first three quarters of 2025.
Among the four A-share listed bus companies, only Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd. experienced a performance decline in 2025, turning from profit to loss. The company expects a net loss between 50 million and 60 million yuan for 2025, compared to a profit of 8.392 million yuan in the same period last year. Its non-recurring net loss is forecast between 90 million and 100 million yuan, widening from a loss of 54.931 million yuan previously. Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd. attributed the loss to intensified market competition leading to decreased comprehensive product毛利率, and special provisions for impairment losses on unrecovered subsidies.
In fact, since 2013, Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd. has reported positive non-recurring net profit only once; all other years showed losses. Zhang Zhijun stated, "This is largely related to Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd.'s product type. Its products are mainly concentrated in the high-end market, but the current market situation is that expensive vehicles don't sell well domestically."
According to Zhang Zhijun, Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd., along with companies like Xiamen Golden Dragon Bus Co.,Ltd. and Youngman Neoplan, initially introduced joint venture technology, resulting in higher product prices. During the golden era of road passenger transport, selling a bus for 1 million yuan, or even 3 million yuan, was not problematic because costs could be recouped within a year or even six months; for users, buying meant profiting. Now, the road passenger transport market is declining, and many companies are hesitant to consider vehicles priced over 1 million yuan due to difficulties in recouping costs.
A core reason for Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd.'s sales growth is its outstanding performance in overseas markets. In 2025, the company exported 5,034 vehicles, a dramatic increase of 152.84% year-on-year, ranking first in growth among the top ten companies. Exports accounted for 58.75% of Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd.'s total sales.
Besides Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd., Foton AUV achieved cumulative sales of 9,185 units in 2025, growing 42.01% year-on-year, with a high growth rate. Zhang Zhijun noted that Foton AUV's performance in overseas markets is also commendable. In 2025, it exported 4,919 vehicles, up 48.88% year-on-year, ranking third in export growth after Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.,Ltd. and Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co.,Ltd. However, due to significant domestic light bus sales, Foton AUV's export proportion was only 23.45%. Furthermore, benefiting from the "replace old with new" policy over the past two years, Foton AUV has gained from the Beijing bus market.
Liu Yongtao emphasized, "Basically, it's go global or get out now, because the domestic market is becoming too competitive. Overseas markets offer better capacity, profits, and payment cycles. Therefore, internationalization is an essential path for bus companies, and the industry is now expanding into new energy exports. The importance of internationalization in the bus industry has been unprecedentedly emphasized in recent years."
Among the top ten bus companies by sales in 2025, Xiamen Golden Dragon Bus Co.,Ltd. and BYD sold 9,398 and 4,873 units respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 16.80% and 9.76%.
Zhang Zhijun believes this is due to proactive product structure adjustment and strategic shifts by Xiamen Golden Dragon Bus Co.,Ltd. and BYD. "When there are many overseas orders, companies become selective, prioritizing profitable ones. Although sales volume may decrease, operational efficiency improves. Both Xiamen Golden Dragon Bus Co.,Ltd. and BYD are actively relinquishing some domestic bus orders and low-margin light bus orders. From the perspective of volume versus quality, they are now prioritizing quality over quantity."
In 2026, the bus market will present both opportunities and challenges. Although pressure in the domestic market will intensify after the replacement peak, there are still opportunities to seize. "The outlook for this year is not overly optimistic, but not pessimistic either, because the 'replace old with new' policy provides a safety net, and the overseas market represents incremental growth," Liu Yongtao said. He added that overseas demand is genuine, as buses need replacement after certain years of service, and the global competitiveness of Chinese buses, especially in new energy, continues to strengthen. Where there is overseas demand, Chinese companies can meet the needs of local markets.
Note: Due to differences in statistical calibers among industry institutions, the sales statistics for the industry and companies mentioned refer to buses over 6 meters in length; export sales statistics refer to buses over 3.5 meters in length.
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