Foreign banks' perspectives on the global macroeconomic landscape and major asset class performance were recently outlined by OCBC Bank. In early April, OCBC China hosted an industry insights communication session in Shanghai titled "Forging Ahead, Expanding Horizons for Growth," where CEO Hong Yongxiang presented his latest views.
Hong Yongxiang stated that the OCBC Group has officially launched its new strategic framework, "Next Frontier," which clearly defines the key growth areas and engines for its next phase of development. Reportedly, the "Next Frontier" strategy encompasses four core transformational initiatives: Asian Transformation: Seizing opportunities from the growing trade, investment, and capital flows within the Asian region. Technology Transformation: Driving customer-centric strategies through Artificial Intelligence, Digitalization, and Data (collectively, ADD) and actively expanding business in the technology sector. Business Transformation: Deepening operations in core markets to achieve long-term growth. Net Zero Transformation: Continuously supporting the green transition.
Hong Yongxiang indicated that this strategy reflects the bank's deep insight into long-term trends and its determination to reshape its growth trajectory and capabilities. He further emphasized that for OCBC, China is not only a vital market but also a core component of the Group's regional strategy. The bank will continue to leverage the Group's extensive Asian network and professional expertise, employing a synergistic "One Group" approach to provide clients with efficient, professional, and seamless financial solutions, supporting their long-term regional expansion and international development.
During the event, Xie Dongming, Head of Macro Research at OCBC, delivered a keynote speech titled "Global Macroeconomics: Key Considerations for 2026." Xie noted that global macroeconomic uncertainty has increased significantly for 2026 due to the Middle East situation, but he maintains that, under a baseline scenario, the global economy overall possesses resilience. He cautioned that this assessment would need to be downgraded only if the Iran conflict were to last substantially longer than anticipated.
Looking ahead to 2026, Xie Dongming stated that OCBC's macro framework will place greater emphasis on "risk management." He highlighted four major risks warranting close attention: First, the risk of global stagflation has risen markedly. Second, the disruptive impact of AI on business models and employment structures is becoming a new source of uncertainty. Third, private credit risk deserves high attention. Fourth, liquidity risk is leading to a repricing of assets. He also warned that these risks may not exist in isolation but are showing signs of "mutual transmission and reinforcement." Consequently, 2026 is likely to be a typical "year of risk management," where investors need to guard against not just single risk events but the potential systemic impact of multiple risks converging.
Liu Yang, Deputy CEO and Head of Global Financial Services at OCBC China, further analyzed recent changes in global major asset classes and their underlying macro logic in his keynote address. Liu Yang expressed that against the complex backdrop of intensified global geopolitical conflicts and energy price volatility, fluctuations in global major asset classes have risen significantly since April, making liquidity management and risk prevention even more crucial in asset allocation.
He believes that in the current round of market stress, traditional safe-haven assets have shown divergent performances. Only the Renminbi and the US Dollar, supported by their liquidity advantages and fundamental economic strength, have acted as relatively stable "safe havens." While the US economy shows short-term resilience, persistent inflation and a high-interest-rate environment may delay monetary easing, though the long-term trend towards interest rate cuts is difficult to reverse. The Renminbi exchange rate, adhering to a principle of maintaining policy independence, has demonstrated strong resilience supported by trade surpluses and available policy tools.
Regarding gold, Liu Yang opined that although short-term volatility has increased due to real interest rates and liquidity factors, sustained gold purchasing by global central banks will provide some support for its medium- to long-term price.
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