Amazon.com Inc. will bring on about 250,000 people in the US for the holiday shopping rush, unchanged from last year and an indication that the company expects steady demand in its biggest market.
The bar might be a touch high for Amazon.com's holiday financial outlook, Morgan Stanley argued on Thursday.
Analysts led by Brian Nowak, who rates the e-commerce firm's stock at Overweight with a price target of $210, highlight Amazon's focus on lower-priced, lower-margin essentials that are weighing on margins overall and holding back profit growth in its North America retail segment.
Amazon shares rose 3% in morning trading on Friday.
"Expected discounting in a competitive holiday season (and picky discretionary consumer) create further near-term uncertainty," analysts wrote.
Morgan Stanley notes that its fourth-quarter earnings before interest and tax is about 1% below Wall Street's estimate of about $17.5 billion. Though the team remains bullish on Amazon into 2025, it expects the company to guide fourth-quarter Ebit below the Street's estimate.
"We could see some tactical weakness from this, but are buyers on weakness after the potential numbers reset," analysts continued. The profit challenges are temporary, they added, and homing in on essentials is key to driving lasting top-line growth.
The online retailer, which typically announces its fall hiring binge to attract new recruits, recently said it was raising hourly pay by at least $1.50 to more than $22 an hour for its 800,000 US transportation and warehousing workers.
Overall, Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. forecasts that retailers will add 520,000 jobs during the last three months of the year, down about 8% from 2023 amid a softening labor market and economy. Last month, Target Corp. said it would hire about 100,000 seasonal staff, the same as a year ago.
Some forecasts are more upbeat for e-commerce. Adobe Inc. expects US shoppers to spend some $240.8 billion online in November and December, up 8.4% from the prior year.
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