明年有几只“黑天鹅”？这是投资者最担心的几件事

华尔街见闻2022-12-28

作者：朱雪莹经历2008年以来的最糟股市和本世纪以来史诗级的债市暴跌，其中标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下挫8.5%、19.7%和33.8%，2022年终于要和大家挥手告别。但即便如此，今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸，担忧2023年是否还会出现若干“黑天鹅”事件，再度搅弄风云。其中包括通胀高烧根深蒂固、经济衰退阴霾逼近、美元继续走高、新兴市场受挫、俄乌冲突升级以及企业利润...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

xiaochoochoo
2022-12-29
xiaochoochoo
....
Sunc
2022-12-28
Sunc
ok
- Sunc:
  ok

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119468919?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53207cf65b0b6d3db3393a387da832f7","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-12-28 21:53","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1119468919","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"明年有几只“黑天鹅”？这是投资者最担心的几件事","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：朱雪莹经历2008年以来的最糟股市和本世纪以来史诗级的债市暴跌，其中标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下挫8.5%、19.7%和33.8%，2022年终于要和大家挥手告别。但即便如此，今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸，担忧2023年是否还会出现若干“黑天鹅”事件，再度搅弄风云。其中包括通胀高烧根深蒂固、经济衰退阴霾逼近、美元继续走高、新兴市场受挫、俄乌冲突升级以及企业利润...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"live_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>明年有几只“黑天鹅”？这是投资者最担心的几件事</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n明年有几只“黑天鹅”？这是投资者最担心的几件事\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-28 21:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：朱雪莹经历2008年以来的最糟股市和本世纪以来史诗级的债市暴跌，其中标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下挫8.5%、19.7%和33.8%，2022年终于要和大家挥手告别。但即便如此，今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸，担忧2023年是否还会出现若干“黑天鹅”事件，再度搅弄风云。其中包括通胀高烧根深蒂固、经济衰退阴霾逼近、美元继续走高、新兴市场受挫、俄乌冲突升级以及企业利润...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538","article_id":"1119468919","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/53207cf65b0b6d3db3393a387da832f7"],"rights":{"source":"live_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678538","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119468919","pubTimestamp":1672235608,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"live_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"How many \"black swans\" will there be next year? These are the few things that investors are most worried about","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fddea19316e0eb65319ea2dc057f88ee","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：朱雪莹经历2008年以来的最糟股市和本世纪以来史诗级的债市暴跌，其中标普500指数、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下挫8.5%、19.7%和33.8%，2022年终于要和大家挥手告别。但即便如此，今年十分坎坷的市场表现仍令投资者心有余悸，担忧2023年是否还会出现若干“黑天鹅”事件，再度搅弄风云。其中包括通胀高烧根深蒂固、经济衰退阴霾逼近、美元继续走高、新兴市场受挫、俄乌冲突升级以及企业利润直面风暴。高企通胀迟迟不退媒体称，投资机构First Eagle Investment Management的全球价值团队联席主管 Matthew McLennan最新表示，虽然“债市预计通胀水平将在12个月内平稳地回归正常区间”，但是这种说法可能犯了一个大错。他对此表示，工资增长和能源成本上涨等供给端压力或将继续推升通胀，这是一个切实存在的风险因素。而这或将排除美联储及欧洲央行在明年年中转向降息的可能性，可能造成股债双杀、美元走强、新兴市场再遭暴击。McLennan认为：美联储没有预料到高企通胀，而在他们抗击通胀的过程中，或许也并没有预计到金融事件的发生......美联储很可能低估了金融危机出现的风险。经济衰退阴霾降临眼下缠绕在投资者心头的最大隐忧，仍是明年经济是否会陷入衰退。而一旦开启衰退，股市或将继续下行。历史数据显示，在衰退真正开始之前，熊市从未触底。根据咨询机构Truist Advisory Services的数据，自二战以来，标普500指数在经济衰退期间平均跌幅为29%。美元继续走高回顾2022年，美元飙升造成众多美国公司业绩出现显著亏损。截至第三季度末，美国和欧洲的1200家大公司将因为今年以来的外汇剧烈波动损失超过600亿美元的销售额。虽然美元在近几周回吐此前涨幅，但是能否继续下行仍尚未可知，取决于后续投资者认为美联储是否相对于其他央行有更强硬的立场。新兴市场受挫目前许多投资者预计，2023年美元走势放缓及能源成本下降或将共同缓解新兴市场的压力。然而有分析认为，一旦全球遏制通胀的努力化为泡影都或将令投资者的美好愿景变成“镜花水月”，比如一旦俄乌冲突升级或将导致能源价格再度飙升。金融服务机构AMP的投资策略和经济主管Shane Oliver表示：新兴市场可能又要在2023年继续挣扎。美元仍处高位且或将继续上行，这会对新兴市场造成不利影响，因为许多国家都拥有大量美元债。德意志银行首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau表示：经济低迷、激进的货币紧缩政策，叠加由此引发的地缘政治冲突和大宗商品冲击，将在短时间内给金融和新兴市场造成痛苦。俄乌冲突升级今年上半年持续主导全球资本市场局势的俄乌冲突也让投资者难以轻松放下，对此日兴资产管理公司的席全球市场策略师John Vail表示：如果冲突升级，西方加大制裁力度，或将造成相当不利的影响。Vail认为：冲突将对全球粮食、能源、化肥、部分金属及化学品等的供应造成严重冲击。企业利润直面风暴投资者担忧，目前的企业盈利预计可能并没有完全计入潜在的经济衰退风险，因此股市仍留有不少下跌空间。按照数据分析机构Refinitiv旗下IBES的数据，分析师普遍预计明年标普500指数上市公司的收入将增长4.4%，但是从研究机构Ned Davis Research的数据来看，在经济衰退期间，企业收入将下降24%。小摩在11月底的报告中预计，标普500指数上市公司明年的每股收益为205美元，较早前预测的225美元下降9% 。同时指出，消费者和企业支出下降，对企业利润构成了越来越大的压力。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9924296302,"gmtCreate":1672264209207,"gmtModify":1676538661155,"author":{"id":"4095548256553960","authorId":"4095548256553960","name":"xiaochoochoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daa4c71aeb75832cfccf0bf892d1f6ec","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095548256553960","authorIdStr":"4095548256553960"},"htmlText":"....","listText":"....","text":"....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924296302","repostId":1119468919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9924638527,"gmtCreate":1672239713969,"gmtModify":1676538657994,"author":{"id":"3576729709142650","authorId":"3576729709142650","name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorIdStr":"3576729709142650"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924638527","repostId":1119468919,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105372860,"gmtCreate":1672239719683,"gmtModify":1672239729019,"authorId":3576729709142650,"author":{"id":3576729709142650,"idStr":"3576729709142650","authorId":3576729709142650,"name":"Sunc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ea94f8a6bfc2835bf320bed8216f7d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9924638527,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">ok</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1119468919"}