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On October 15, after gold failed to break through the US$4,200 per ounce level, some trend-following funds began trimming their long exposure. CBCX noted that in an analysis dated October 14, TD Securities viewed systematic selling as a significant drag on gold prices, while also arguing that investment demand continues to provide support. Within the same price range, different groups of capital may make sharply divergent choices. The report mentioned that inflows into gold funds, central bank demand, and macro-discretionary positioning remain resilient.
CBCX believes these factors do not conflict with funds that adjust positions according to trend rules: the former may focus on allocation, while the latter pays more attention to price signals. Therefore, when observing support zones, one needs to judge whether buying and selling forces are sustained, rather than treating a particular round-number threshold as a fixed bottom. A breach of a technical level could trigger further position reduction, but whether physical or allocation demand can absorb the selling in time depends on trade size and the pace of capital flows. A brief dip followed by a quick recovery represents a different market state from sustained trading at low levels.
Interest rate expectations will still influence allocation willingness, creating an interaction between price feedback and capital flows. Fund buying and futures position reduction may also occur in different time windows; intraday price pressure does not necessarily mean allocation capital is exiting, and a rebound does not automatically prove that trend selling has ended. Around the US$4,000 to US$4,100 zone, CBCX analysis says, fund flows, position changes, and the ability of prices to recover should be observed together. If absorption strengthens, selling pressure may gradually be taken in; if yields continue to rise, potential buyers may also stay on the sidelines. Support is a market judgment that requires repeated validation, not a guaranteed promise of reversal.
Risk reminder: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Foreign exchange and precious metals are high-risk products with large fluctuations that may lead to loss of principal. Please invest rationally and bear your own risks.
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