Bitcoin's rebound from below $60,000 has reignited speculation that a market bottom may have been reached. Bulls and bears are fiercely debating the implications of ETF outflows, on-chain data, and potential macro catalysts, though analysts caution that the market has yet to see the kind of wholesale panic selling that has typically marked the end of past bear cycles.
After touching a low near $59,100 last week, Bitcoin staged a rebound this week, briefly surpassing $64,000 on Friday before paring gains to trade little changed from Thursday's New York close, with a cumulative gain of over 4.6% at the time of writing.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, offered a clear stance in a client note, stating he believes the price lows for crypto assets in this cycle have likely been seen. He cited the easing of geopolitical tensions and the completion of the SpaceX IPO as two key potential catalysts.
The Debate Over a Bottom
The recent price action has triggered a debate about a potential market floor, with geopolitical developments and the SpaceX offering serving as key arguments for the bullish case. Bitcoin's drop to around $59,100 last week, followed by a recovery to approximately $63,600, spread pessimism and prompted analysts to search for technical signals historically associated with market lows.
Geoffrey Kendrick noted in his report that a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could reduce upward pressure on oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Concurrently, the completion of the SpaceX IPO might signal the end of a recent intense wave of ETF selling. He suggested that some ETF holders may have liquidated Bitcoin positions early to participate in the SpaceX offering, objectively accelerating outflows and contributing to one of the most severe net outflow periods since these ETFs launched.
On-Chain Data Hints at a Bottom, But Hurdles Remain
Several on-chain metrics are approaching critical levels seen at historical bear market lows, providing support for the bullish argument. According to CryptoQuant data, following this recent decline, Bitcoin's price is only about 9% above its "realized price"—the average cost basis of all coins last moved on-chain. Historically, this metric tends to converge with the realized price near major bear market troughs, placing the current level in a historically sensitive zone.
Analyst Vetle Lunde pointed to another indicator: more than half of the circulating Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss, meaning holders' purchase price is above the current market price. This phenomenon has been observed near several past market bottoms, with the logic being that the pool of investors still in profit and facing potential selling pressure has significantly narrowed. However, Lunde cautiously added that Bitcoin could still experience a "final leg down" before establishing a sustained recovery.
Persistent ETF Outflows and Institutional Demand Remain Key Concerns
Despite the positive signals, the scale of the recent sell-off still appears insufficient compared to typical deep crypto market crashes. CryptoQuant data shows that approximately 187,000 Bitcoin were sold at a loss by investors over the past 30 days—a significant amount but far below the selling volume seen after the FTX collapse in late 2022 and even below a concentrated sell-off earlier this year.
Data compiled by Bloomberg indicates U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows of roughly $5.8 billion over the past month. CryptoQuant notes that U.S. institutional demand has not only stalled but has turned into net selling at a historically rare pace. This phenomenon itself sparks opposing interpretations between bulls and bears. Bears argue that persistent outflows indicate deteriorating demand, making it difficult to form effective price support. Bulls contend that outflows of this magnitude are a classic feature of market capitulation, often historically coinciding with the formation of a bottom.
The conclusion from CryptoQuant researchers is representative: the current price level should be viewed as a candidate for a valuation bottom, not a confirmed cycle low. This phrasing accurately captures the core market divergence: technical signals are accumulating, but weakness in demand and the continued outflow of ETF funds make any definitive judgment highly risky.
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