Cross-border RMB business maintains robust growth, the global monetary system is undergoing profound reshaping, and RMB internationalization is entering a critical phase of quality enhancement. On May 18, during the 2026 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum, Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist at BOC Securities, discussed several key topics in an interview.
In Guan Tao's view, RMB internationalization is currently facing a rare strategic window of opportunity, with the core bottleneck constraining its advancement being capital account openness. Monetary policy will continue with a moderately accommodative stance, having ample room for operation, with structural tools taking priority. Additionally, regarding the highly discussed topic of gold, he believes that gold's long-term allocation value is prominent under the logic of remonetization and global asset rebalancing. Ordinary investors can adhere to buying on dips but must absolutely avoid chasing rallies.
RMB Internationalization Faces Strategic Window Guan Tao stated that cross-border RMB business has maintained steady growth in recent years. The scale of RMB in domestic cross-border receipts and payments has surpassed that of the US dollar, making it China's largest currency for cross-border settlements. From a global perspective, RMB's full-scope international payment share ranks third globally. Simultaneously, it is the world's third-largest cross-border trade financing currency, the fifth-largest foreign exchange trading currency, and the seventh-largest foreign reserve currency, establishing its status as a secondary reserve currency.
"The weaponization of currency by certain countries, the pursuit of irresponsible macroeconomic policies, and even the creation of geopolitical conflicts continuously undermine the foundation of trust, objectively creating conditions for expanding RMB's international role," Guan Tao pointed out. China consistently provides certainty and stability for the world economy and trade, with the international influence of the RMB steadily increasing. The current period is a crucial strategic window for RMB internationalization.
He emphasized that seizing this window requires focusing on three tasks: managing the economy well so that holding RMB assets generates returns; building robust markets so that foreign investors understand and accept the rules; and steadily advancing capital account openness to enhance the convenience of capital flows. Based on this, Guan Tao further noted the need to coordinate the advancement of RMB internationalization with three major tasks: comprehensively deepening reforms, achieving high-quality capital account openness, and preventing external risks.
Regarding the core bottleneck, Guan Tao stated frankly that the capital account is not yet fully convertible, which is the primary gap between the RMB and traditional international currencies like the US dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. Market factors also constrain RMB internationalization. The future should focus on institutional openness, promoting both 'at-the-border' openness and, more importantly, achieving 'behind-the-border' openness. This means aligning domestic rules, regulations, management, and standards internationally or contributing Chinese solutions, making foreign investors feel 'at home' when investing in the Chinese market.
RRR Cuts Prioritized Over Interest Rate Cuts in Aggregate Tools Guan Tao indicated that China still faces pressure to stabilize growth, with 2026 being the second consecutive year of implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year, for the first time in a Party document, explicitly identified promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices as important considerations for monetary policy, a signal of significant meaning.
"This means that even if economic growth targets are met, as long as inflation targets are not achieved, it does not imply a shift in monetary policy," Guan Tao noted. This framework is similar to the Federal Reserve's forward guidance, providing the market with clear and stable policy expectations. Currently, China's CPI remains low at around 1%, core CPI is weak, the foundation for a price rebound is not solid, and it is far from the time for monetary policy tightening. The market need not worry about the premature withdrawal of supportive policies such as interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts.
He further clarified the priority of policy tools: structural tools take precedence over aggregate tools, and within aggregate tools, RRR cuts are prioritized over interest rate cuts. The current issues facing the Chinese economy are intertwined structural, institutional, and cyclical problems. Relying solely on aggregate policies like interest rate or RRR cuts has limited effectiveness. Structural monetary policy tools can more precisely target and directly support the real economy.
Guan Tao mentioned that market liquidity was generally ample in April this year, with domestic market interest rates declining to varying degrees. The market itself completed an 'implicit interest rate cut,' echoing the situation where the Federal Reserve did not hike rates but the bond market underwent an 'implicit rate hike.' Within the financing structure, the proportion of bond financing has increased, making market interest rates more influential on financing costs.
"Monetary policy can currently maintain a wait-and-see stance, but it is necessary to act decisively when needed. The policy toolbox remains ample," Guan Tao assessed. If conflicts in the Middle East prolong, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz extends, and the impact of the energy crisis intensifies in the second half of the year, leading to a global economic and trade slowdown, it would open a time window for further adjustments in domestic monetary policy.
Regarding exchange rates and the real economy, Guan Tao emphasized that the central bank advocates 'creating a stable exchange rate environment for the real economy.' The core is adhering to the market-based formation mechanism of the exchange rate and guiding market expectations. "A stronger RMB is not inherently good, nor is a weaker RMB inherently bad." He cautioned that data from 2015–2024 shows that in years when the RMB appreciated, listed companies overall exhibited net exchange rate losses. Appreciation is not favorable for export-oriented enterprises. It is necessary to prevent excessive two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate, avoiding both excessive depreciation and guarding against rapid, excessive appreciation causing financial impacts on exporters.
Buy Gold on Dips, Avoid Chasing Highs Regarding the highly market-focused topic of gold investment, Guan Tao provided a detailed interpretation from three aspects—logic, value, and strategy—to the reporter, clarifying the core investment logic and operational principles for gold at present.
Guan Tao pointed out that the core support for this round of gold's rise stems from two major logics: first, the remonetization of gold, and second, global asset rebalancing. Against the backdrop of rising uncertainty in the fiat currency system, the weaponization of currency by major economies, and the materialization of fiscal and financial risks, gold's monetary attributes are re-emerging.
"Gold is inherently money, overcoming the flaw of excessive issuance in fiat currencies," Guan Tao stated. The global above-ground gold stock is approximately 220,000 tons, with a market value exceeding $30 trillion. The London spot market sees an average daily trading volume of about $180 billion, with liquidity comparable to 7–10 year U.S. Treasury bonds, possessing the scale and depth for major asset allocation. Gold's annual supply growth rate is only about 1.8%, with stable supply, unlike fiat currencies that can experience large-scale quantitative easing.
From an allocation perspective, gold currently accounts for about 30% of global official foreign exchange reserves, while private sector allocation is just over 3%, both at relatively low levels, indicating vast room for asset rebalancing.
For ordinary investors, Guan Tao offers clear operational advice: if one believes in the logic of gold's remonetization and asset reallocation, they can buy on dips, allocate in batches, and hold for the long term, resolutely avoiding chasing rallies and selling in panic.
"Do not chase highs when gold prices surge. Many investors entered the market above $5,000, subsequently becoming anxious during volatility," Guan Tao emphasized. Ordinary investors should adhere to value investing, only buying assets they understand and can bear the risk for. He also reminded that volatility is inevitable after gold prices hit record highs, advising against full positions, heavy positions, and short-term speculation.
Comments