Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%

Bloomberg2022-09-15

He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a ...

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Comments

Simonnov
2022-09-15
Simonnov
Ic
ValuInvestor
2022-09-15
ValuInvestor
[Thinking]
BenjiFuji
2022-09-15
BenjiFuji
Load up dry powder! If Ray's right, a lot of shooting opportunities ahead! [Grin]
- LMSunshine:
  I listened to you & sold a lot of my greens!
- MickeyLiew:
  [Facepalm]
RW5
2022-09-15
RW5
O
- RW5:
  O
庭ST
2022-09-15
庭ST
🤔
BhaskarB
2022-09-15
BhaskarB
Ray Dalio might be right

Leave a comment

611

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Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.</p><p>Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.</p><p>Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.</p><p>A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c4808d274be46162db2efadd720342\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934865043,"gmtCreate":1663218797182,"gmtModify":1676537230800,"author":{"id":"4087361572396550","authorId":"4087361572396550","name":"ValuInvestor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a962911d3cd0763a9f0cb01392cacd9","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934865043","repostId":1119688207,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119688207","pubTimestamp":1663198743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119688207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119688207","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent abou","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come down</li><li>Notes investors may be complacent about long-term inflation</li></ul><p>Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.</p><p>“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.</p><p>The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.</p><p>Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.</p><p>Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.</p><p>A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c4808d274be46162db2efadd720342\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRay Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119688207","content_text":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934860997,"gmtCreate":1663217703733,"gmtModify":1676537230516,"author":{"id":"4110175785559852","authorId":"4110175785559852","name":"BenjiFuji","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/330f59d829009a2c318784ab2b5e6098","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Load up dry powder! If Ray's right, a lot of shooting opportunities ahead!&nbsp;[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"Load up dry powder! If Ray's right, a lot of shooting opportunities ahead!&nbsp;[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"Load up dry powder! If Ray's right, a lot of shooting opportunities ahead! [Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934860997","repostId":1119688207,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119688207","pubTimestamp":1663198743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119688207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119688207","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent abou","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come down</li><li>Notes investors may be complacent about long-term inflation</li></ul><p>Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.</p><p>“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.</p><p>The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.</p><p>Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.</p><p>Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.</p><p>A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c4808d274be46162db2efadd720342\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRay Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119688207","content_text":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":103940034,"gmtCreate":1663246853770,"gmtModify":1663258963740,"authorId":4113904591642392,"author":{"id":4113904591642392,"authorId":4113904591642392,"name":"LMSunshine","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ad636f2490d8428fcee9da6d669e46c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.14%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9934860997,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">I listened to you &amp; sold a lot of my greens!<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">I listened to you &amp; sold a lot of my greens!<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">I listened to you &amp; sold a lot of my greens!<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\"> </span></span>"},{"id":103940138,"gmtCreate":1663247494116,"gmtModify":1663258963132,"authorId":3571792373977202,"author":{"id":3571792373977202,"authorId":3571792373977202,"name":"MickeyLiew","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9934860997,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Facepalm]","text":"[Facepalm]","html":"[Facepalm]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934884630,"gmtCreate":1663217494021,"gmtModify":1676537230468,"author":{"id":"3582440300426753","authorId":"3582440300426753","name":"RW5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1892f1a4f1e18bdabb9f243266c5c6b3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934884630","repostId":1119688207,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119688207","pubTimestamp":1663198743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119688207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119688207","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent abou","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come down</li><li>Notes investors may be complacent about long-term inflation</li></ul><p>Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.</p><p>“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.</p><p>The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.</p><p>Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.</p><p>Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.</p><p>A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c4808d274be46162db2efadd720342\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRay Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119688207","content_text":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":103935629,"gmtCreate":1663217500509,"gmtModify":1663258940651,"authorId":3582440300426753,"author":{"id":3582440300426753,"authorId":3582440300426753,"name":"RW5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1892f1a4f1e18bdabb9f243266c5c6b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9934884630,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">O</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">O</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">O</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934888330,"gmtCreate":1663216895320,"gmtModify":1676537230342,"author":{"id":"3554850433778518","authorId":"3554850433778518","name":"庭ST","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ac6463246afbf06e615fbfdc180113","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"🤔&nbsp;","listText":"🤔&nbsp;","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934888330","repostId":1119688207,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119688207","pubTimestamp":1663198743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119688207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119688207","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent abou","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come down</li><li>Notes investors may be complacent about long-term inflation</li></ul><p>Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.</p><p>“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.</p><p>The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.</p><p>Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.</p><p>Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.</p><p>A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c4808d274be46162db2efadd720342\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRay Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119688207","content_text":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9934881609,"gmtCreate":1663216584202,"gmtModify":1676537230318,"author":{"id":"3576055655100541","authorId":"3576055655100541","name":"BhaskarB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae63d5d863287dbf3e7d25ef9ab845e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ray Dalio might be right","listText":"Ray Dalio might be right","text":"Ray Dalio might be right","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934881609","repostId":1119688207,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119688207","pubTimestamp":1663198743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119688207?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119688207","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent abou","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come down</li><li>Notes investors may be complacent about long-term inflation</li></ul><p>Ray Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.</p><p>“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.</p><p>The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.</p><p>Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.</p><p>Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.</p><p>A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c4808d274be46162db2efadd720342\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ray Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRay Dalio Does the Math: Rates at 4.5% Would Sink Stocks by 20%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/ray-dalio-doing-the-math-rates-at-4-5-would-sink-stocks-by-20?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119688207","content_text":"He says private sector credit growth and spending to come downNotes investors may be complacent about long-term inflationRay Dalio came out with a gloomy prediction for stocks and the economy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print rattled financial markets around the globe this week.“It looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot (toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range),” the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates LP wrote in a LinkedIn article dated Tuesday. “This will bring private sector credit growth down, which will bring private sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”A mere increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices, he added.The rate market suggests traders have fully priced in a 75-basis-point hike next week by the Federal Reserve, with a slight chance for a full percentage point move. Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at about 4.4% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5%.Dalio noted investors may still be too complacent about long-term inflation. While the bond market suggests traders are expecting an average annual inflation rate of 2.6% over the next decade, his “guesstimate” is that the increase will be around 4.5% to 5%. With economic shocks, it may be even “significantly higher,” he added.Dalio said the US yield curve will be “relatively flat” until there is an “unacceptable negative effect” on the economy.A deepening inversion of key curve measures -- seen by many as a potential harbinger of recession -- has helped reinforce a more downbeat view about economic activity among investors.Investors, speculating that the Fed will tip the economy into recession next year in the fight to curb inflation, already see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.The S&P 500 is heading for its biggest annual loss since 2008, while Treasuries have suffered one of their worst beatings in decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":611,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1119688207"}