Despite widespread concern over the U.S. President's expanding ambitions, the nation's historically largest official effort to impress attendees at Davos was met with optimistic economic rhetoric from participants.
The World Economic Forum's first full day kicked off with a bold forecast from Treasury Secretary on improving U.S. prosperity this year, swiftly followed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raising its growth outlook for the world's largest economy. Bankers joined the chorus, expressing cautious enthusiasm for its expansion prospects.
"Customers around the world are looking at the U.S. economy with a degree of envy, asking how can we be part of this magical growth engine that is the U.S. economy?" said Filippo Gori, Co-Head of Global Investment Banking at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Although geopolitical anxieties cast a shadow over the entire Davos event—linked to the U.S. President's intent regarding Greenland and set to intensify with his arrival at the Swiss mountain resort on Wednesday—the annual tradition of contemplating the U.S. economic outlook remained firmly in place.
The U.S. dispatched its largest-ever delegation, including the President and the Secretary of Commerce, underscoring its perennial central role in WEF discussions. Officials also established a venue named "USA House" in a 19th-century church, where the Treasury Secretary spoke on Tuesday.
The Treasury Secretary claimed Americans are suffering from "inflation PTSD" inherited from the previous administration but insisted that tax rebates provided to U.S. consumers in the first quarter would significantly boost expansion.
"I believe policy will take root, and we will see a very, very strong economy this year," he said. "We could see real growth of 4% to 5%, which implies 7% nominal growth."
Concurrently, the IMF offered its own more optimistic assessment on Monday, raising its 2026 U.S. expansion forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.4%, up from 2.1% last year.
State Street CEO Ron O’Hanley observed that numerous factors could sustain U.S. growth momentum, naturally benefiting the rest of the world. He appeared to agree with the Treasury Secretary's view that fiscal tailwinds aid consumers and pointed to other elements potentially supporting expansion.
"You see a weaker dollar, which should help exports, and even events like the World Cup coming to the U.S. and the broader North American region will drive significant spending," he stated. "The U.S. tailwinds are quite strong."
Corporate optimism toward the U.S. was also evident for 2025. ING Groep NV Chief Economist Marieke Blom, a frequent attendee, observed last week that while this optimism is somewhat justified, it might also be exaggerated.
She noted that the U.S. economy actually performed "slightly less robustly" than forecasts last year, and the gap with Europe is "much smaller than the Davos consensus suggests."
"There are reasons to be relatively optimistic about the U.S. economy," she wrote in a report. "Equally important is that, unlike in Europe, there is little incentive in the U.S. to express concern. What business leader stands to gain by pointing out risks in the U.S.?"
Gori did offer some words of caution, albeit without any sense of urgency. "The credit cycle has been benign for a long time," he said. "Do you think about it? Yes. Do we sense an imminent recession in the U.S.? No."
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