December 22 – A "Crazy Monday" for precious metals! In early Asian trading, spot gold opened higher and surged sharply, surpassing its previous all-time high of $4,381 per ounce set on October 20 to reach $4,390, marking a 1.1% gain. Silver followed suit, hitting a new record of $68.98 per ounce with a 2.5% increase. Meanwhile, spot platinum broke above $2,000 per ounce for the first time since 2008, bringing its year-to-date rally to over 120%.
**Key Drivers** Macroeconomic factors remain the core catalyst for gold's rally. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, significantly below economists' expectations of 3.1%, fueling optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, the U.S. Labor Department reported an unemployment rate increase to 4.6% in November—the highest since September 2021—highlighting labor market weakness and reinforcing the case for monetary easing. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in a 21% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by January 2026, while the probability of unchanged rates stands at 79%. For March next year, the odds of a cumulative 25-bp cut are 47.1%, with a 43.4% likelihood of no change.
Geopolitical tensions continue to amplify gold's volatility. On December 21, Ukrainian delegates held "productive and constructive" meetings with U.S. and European counterparts in Florida, discussing terms for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, security guarantees, and post-war reconstruction. Separately, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro condemned 25 consecutive weeks of aggression against his country, ranging from psychological warfare to oil tanker hijackings, while reaffirming Venezuela's commitment to stability. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon, raising risks of broader regional conflict.
**Technical Outlook** Gold's daily chart shows strong bullish momentum, with prices consistently trading above the 5-day moving average despite brief pullbacks. However, repeated doji candles after rallies suggest waning bullish conviction, while pent-up correction risks loom. The 1-hour chart highlights $4,340 (near the 5-day MA) as critical support, with resistance at $4,385–90. Early Asian-session gains above $4,380 reflect speculative fervor; further upside toward $4,400 is possible but lacks fundamental backing.
**Trading Strategy** Monitor $4,385–90 resistance and $4,400 as potential targets, while watching $4,340 support and last Friday’s high of $4,355–50. Given thin holiday liquidity, conservative traders may wait for stability before entering. Always use stop-losses.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should exercise caution and conduct their own research.
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