Nvidia will release its Q3 FY2026 results after market close on November 19, 2025.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, consensus forecasts point to total revenue around $54.78 billion (up approximately 65% year over year), EBIT near $35.84 billion (up about 64% year over year), and adjusted EPS estimated at $1.244 (up roughly 67% year over year).
Source: Tiger Trade App
Based on Nvidia’s last report trajectory, gross profit margin is expected to remain around the low 70% range, net profit margin close to the mid‑50% range, and adjusted EPS growth led by accelerating AI infrastructure demand. The main business highlight remains the Data Center segment, which is projected to drive the majority of revenue and profit on continued hyperscaler and sovereign AI build-outs. The most promising segment is the Data Center business, with prior quarter revenue of $41.10 billion and strong year-over-year growth of about 56%, underpinned by GPU platform ramps and expanding global AI capacity.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Nvidia reported revenue of $46.743 billion, a gross profit margin of 72.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $26.422 billion, a net profit margin of 56.53%, and adjusted EPS of $1.05, with year-over-year growth near the mid‑50% range across headline metrics. One notable highlight was Nvidia exceeding revenue and EPS expectations, reflecting persistent demand for AI accelerators despite supply constraints and geographic policy uncertainties. The main business highlights showed Data Center revenue at $41.096 billion, Gaming at $4.287 billion, Professional Visualization at $601 million, Automotive at $586 million, and OEM & Other at $173 million, with Data Center growth remaining the dominant driver and Gaming contributing stable double-digit billions.
Current Quarter Outlook
Data Center Momentum and Revenue Mix
The Data Center business continues to set the tone for Nvidia’s quarterly outcomes, capturing close to nine-tenths of company revenue last quarter and driving the bulk of operating leverage. Hyperscalers have raised capital expenditure plans across cloud AI training and inference, translating into sustained accelerator demand that feeds both top-line expansion and healthy margin profiles. Sovereign AI initiatives and neocloud developments outside the United States have widened project pipelines, suggesting durable multi-region demand through late 2025 and into calendar 2026. While China remains a moving piece, commentary from sell-side and industry observers indicates incremental routes to access compute—directly ex‑China or via regional rentals—may blunt near-term volatility and preserve Nvidia’s shipment trajectory.
Product Cycle and Supply Positioning
The Blackwell transition has proceeded with robust ramp dynamics, and expectations for the next-generation Rubin platform in the second half of calendar 2026 have sharpened visibility into large-scale AI buildouts. This sequencing supports elevated pricing and mix, reinforcing gross margin performance in the low 70% range, while continued software and networking attach contribute to blended margin stability. On the supply side, Nvidia’s orchestration across foundry and substrate partners has alleviated acute bottlenecks seen in prior cycles, though lead times remain sensitive to upside surprises in hyperscaler demand or sovereign procurement windows. Importantly, customer concentration—previously noted with a substantial revenue share from two customers—will be watched this quarter for diversification signals as enterprise AI adoption begins to scale beyond core cloud accounts.
Segment Dynamics and the Role of Gaming
Gaming maintained a supportive role as a cash-generative business with established channel health, though it is less central to quarter-to-quarter surprises compared with Data Center. Channel inventories have normalized relative to earlier cycles and RTX adoption continues to advance, yet the quarter’s stock price drivers will almost entirely hinge on the quantum of data center shipments, backlog conversion, and any change in China-related guidance. Professional Visualization remains a smaller contributor but benefits from crossovers with enterprise AI visualization and simulation workflows, offering incremental tailwinds without meaningful downside risk. Automotive and OEM/Other, while individually small, provide optionality in the longer arc of edge compute and AI deployment in industry verticals.
Most Promising Business and Key Watch Items
The most promising business is Data Center, where announced and anticipated 2026 projects—combined with continuous hyperscaler capex upgrades—support a revenue trajectory that has been revised upward across multiple analysts. For this quarter, the focus will be on whether the company can meet or exceed guidance in Data Center against elevated expectations and whether shipment timing aligns with customer rollout schedules. Investors will be looking for color on AI service provider pipelines, software monetization progression, and timeline clarity around Blackwell-to-Rubin transitions, as these disclosures can reshape growth run-rate models and influence multiple expansion.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The dominant stock price driver is the magnitude of Data Center revenue and the durability of gross margin in the low 70% range, which together define EPS outcomes versus consensus. China-specific commentary could sway sentiment if guidance shifts from ex‑China to partial inclusion or if previously discussed H20 routes gain traction; however, broader global demand trends remain the primary lens through which near-term beats or misses are assessed. The degree of hyperscaler capex commitment into 2026 and visibility into enterprise AI adoption will influence backward-looking valuation concerns and forward-looking earnings power. Any signals on customer concentration reduction or a widening base of sovereign AI contracts would further stabilize perceptions of revenue resilience.
Analyst Opinions
Citi
Maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of $220, recently opening a 30-day "Upside" short-term view on expectations of a "beat and raise" earnings report. Citi models October-quarter sales of $57 billion, above consensus estimates of approximately $55 billion, and expects January-quarter guidance of $62 billion versus Street expectations of around $61 billion. The firm highlights Nvidia’s disclosure of shipping 6 million GPUs as an indication of near-term upside. Citi has increased its FY26/27/28 EPS estimates by 2%/7%/8% to better align with revised global AI capital expenditure models, applying a 30x P/E multiple to its CY26 EPS estimate of $7.24.
Wolfe Research
Following Nvidia’s recent disclosures at GTC, Wolfe sees "clear upside" to consensus numbers for CY26. The firm notes Nvidia’s indication of shipping approximately 3 million Blackwell chips to date in 2025, with line of sight to cumulative $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue (representing about 10 million GPU chips) through the end of 2026. This suggests roughly $300 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue in 2026 alone—approximately 20% above Wolfe’s current estimates. The analysis supports a base case of approximately $8 in CY26 EPS, putting the stock at "a very reasonable 25x that earnings power." Wolfe also highlights that most incremental revenue appears to be derived from pricing, with ASPs rising more than 50% generation-over-generation from Blackwell to Rubin, which is positive for gross margins.
Bank of America Securities
Describes Nvidia stock as "compelling" and "priced for measured AI buildout." BofA notes that Nvidia’s disclosure of approximately $500 billion in CY25/26 data center orders suggests potential for around $8 per share in CY26 EPS. This would represent year-over-year growth of 50% in sales and 70% in EPS, yet the stock trades at "essentially an undemanding 24x PE market multiple." The firm argues that despite media headlines, Nvidia stock is priced for "very measured AI rollouts" and considers the noise around China restrictions "unhelpful but irrelevant" to near and medium-term financial estimates.
This content is generated based on Tiger AI data and is for reference only.
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