Airbus Group has announced a target to raise its adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to between €12 billion and €13 billion by 2029, a move that has driven a significant surge in its share price.
The stock of Airbus (ticker: AIR, up 5.88%) rose sharply. The group is betting on sustained strong demand for commercial and military aircraft to underpin its performance, announcing plans to significantly increase profitability over the coming years.
The European aerospace manufacturer stated that its core profit metric, adjusted EBIT, will increase from €7.13 billion in 2025 to a range of €12 billion to €13 billion (equivalent to $13.68 billion to $14.82 billion) by 2029.
Of this total, the commercial aircraft business is expected to contribute approximately €10 billion, the Defence and Space division around €1.3 billion, and the Helicopters segment about €1.2 billion.
Analysts from Jefferies and Citi view the target as somewhat conservative, noting that demand for wide-body jets could drive further growth in the commercial business, while increased German defense spending is likely to provide a greater boost to the Defence and Space unit.
On Wednesday, shares of Airbus listed in Paris rose 5.9%. However, constrained by supply chain bottlenecks that have dampened investor confidence, the stock's year-to-date gain stands at just 5%.
The Commercial Aircraft division is responsible for the production and delivery of Airbus's full range of airliners. From January to June this year, Airbus delivered 351 aircraft, with an annual target of delivering around 870 commercial aircraft.
Despite facing engine supply constraints for its key A320 family, Airbus deliveries have increased in recent months. Analysts believe the full-year delivery target is achievable. Previously, market concerns that supply chain disruptions would force Airbus to lower its targets, a scenario that occurred in 2022, 2024, and 2025.
Jefferies analysts noted in a client report that Airbus's overall business update was solid, but the benefits of supply chain improvements still need to translate into tangible production rate increases.
Airbus production rate plans: A220 narrow-body aircraft to reach 13 per month by 2028; A320 family to reach 70–75 per month by the end of next year; A330 to reach 5 per month by 2029; the large A350 model to reach 12 per month by 2028.
Airbus stated last year it would increase its dividend payout ratio and retain the option for share buybacks to return excess cash to shareholders. The latest announcement shows the board has approved a three-year share repurchase program totaling €5 billion.
J.P. Morgan analysts commented that the scale of this buyback is likely below the expectations of many investors but still sends a positive signal, with the possibility of more shareholder return initiatives in the future.
Airbus also maintained its current-year performance forecast unchanged: adjusted EBIT of approximately €7.5 billion and free cash flow before customer financing of around €4.5 billion.
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