Citigroup has issued a research report expressing a short-term positive outlook on TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780), citing its current reasonable valuation and the approaching Spring Festival travel peak season. The report also highlights the company's stable fundamental operations, leading to the maintenance of a "Buy" rating. Looking ahead to 2026, expansion in lower-tier city markets and outbound travel, coupled with further improvements in average room revenue, are expected to continue driving double-digit growth in hotel revenue and bring about a slight enhancement in profit margins. Based on these factors, Citigroup has made minor upward revisions to its profit forecasts for TONGCHENGTRAVEL for the years 2025 to 2027, while keeping the target price unchanged at HK$28. The market anticipates that TONGCHENGTRAVEL will announce its fourth-quarter 2025 results in mid-March, with both revenue and adjusted profit likely to be broadly in line with market expectations. Driven by the recovery in average room revenue and low double-digit growth in room nights, Citigroup forecasts a 15.8% year-on-year increase in hotel revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025. Furthermore, the growth in transportation ticketing revenue is anticipated to be primarily fueled by improvements in commission rates.
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