Abstract
Carrier Global Corporation will report its quarter ending December results on February 05, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching top-line stability, margin resilience, and earnings per share trajectories.Market Forecast
Consensus-style projections indicate Carrier Global Corporation’s current quarter revenue estimate at USD 4.99933 billion, down 5.23% year over year, with EBIT at USD 0.53 billion (down 23.11% year over year), adjusted EPS at USD 0.37 (down 24.96% year over year), and with limited visibility into gross profit margin and net margin guidance. The main business is expected to be anchored by Climate Solutions across Americas, EMEA, and APAC/MEA, with Transport contributing as a steady, though smaller, pillar; management and market focus is on execution through price-cost discipline and backlog conversion to support margins. The most promising segment remains Americas Climate Solutions, previously generating USD 2.71 billion last quarter and serving as the core growth engine, with the revenue base positioned to benefit from price actions and retrofit demand; year-over-year detail for the segment is not provided in the forecast fields.Last Quarter Review
Carrier Global Corporation’s prior quarter delivered revenue of USD 5.58 billion, a gross profit margin of 26.17%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.43 billion with a net profit margin of 7.67%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.67, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.99%. A key highlight was adjusted EPS outperforming expectations, coming in at USD 0.67 versus the USD 0.57 estimate. Main business highlights included Climate Solutions Americas at USD 2.71 billion, Europe at USD 1.29 billion, APAC/MEA at USD 0.83 billion, and Transport at USD 0.75 billion; year-over-year growth breakdowns were not specified.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main Business: Climate Solutions as the Earnings Anchor
Climate Solutions remains the anchor for Carrier Global Corporation’s earnings, with the Americas division representing the largest revenue contributor at USD 2.71 billion in the last reported quarter. The outlook for the quarter ending December is framed by a consensus revenue estimate of USD 4.99933 billion and a softer EBIT trajectory at USD 0.53 billion, which points to margin pressures likely stemming from mix and ongoing normalization after prior price-cost tailwinds. While gross profit margin guidance for the quarter is not provided in the forecast data, recent gross margin at 26.17% provides a reference point for assessing performance sustainability under decelerating volume conditions. Execution will pivot on backlog conversion and price discipline across commercial HVAC, residential systems, and applied equipment, while order intake in retrofit and upgrade cycles could mitigate macro drag.The Americas Climate Solutions portfolio typically reflects higher pricing power and service attachment rates, supporting resilience even as volume elasticity moderates. For this quarter, careful monitoring of project deliveries in commercial HVAC, the timing of retrofit cycles, and potential weather-driven residential demand is warranted to understand intra-quarter dynamics. Pricing carryover and supply-chain stabilization should help offset input-cost variability, though EBIT guidance signals that the degree of offset may be limited, implying continued prioritization of profitability over growth in select submarkets.
Most Promising Segment: Americas Climate Solutions
Americas Climate Solutions, at USD 2.71 billion last quarter, remains the most promising segment due to scale, service revenue density, and pricing agility. The forecasted company-level EPS decline to USD 0.37 and EBIT of USD 0.53 billion suggest the segment will be tasked with margin stabilization through price-cost controls and mix management, with service and aftermarket work offering steadier gross margins. Energy-efficiency retrofits, regulatory-driven upgrades, and enterprise clients’ decarbonization agendas can sustain demand profiles, even if new-unit volumes soften.A key performance driver is conversion of booked projects and adherence to installation schedules, which affects revenue recognition and margin cadence. While explicit year-over-year segment growth data is not provided, the Americas unit’s scale and relative margin structure position it to be a lever for offsetting softness in other regions. Monitoring conversion rates, service attach rates, and backlog burn will be central to gauging whether EBIT pressure is transient or indicates broader margin normalization.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Stock performance in the near term will likely hinge on EPS outcomes versus the USD 0.37 estimate, the revenue print relative to USD 4.99933 billion, and commentary on gross margin durability around the recent 26.17% level. The market will parse any color around net margin trajectories against the last quarter’s 7.67%, looking for signals on price realization, mix, and service penetration. Updates on order intake trends in commercial HVAC, backlog conversion pace, and regional performance—particularly Americas versus Europe—will influence sentiment.Moreover, investors will look for indications on cost modernization programs and any incremental synergies or operational benefits flowing through EBIT, especially given the forecasted 23.11% year-over-year decline in EBIT. Segment-level cadence, particularly Transport’s stability and APAC/MEA momentum, could modulate expectations if the core Americas business meets or exceeds implicit targets. The EPS surprise in the prior quarter sets a comparable context; however, the current estimates already embed caution, so upside would likely be rewarded if margin management proves resilient.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional views are predominantly bullish based on recent rating actions within the defined time window, with multiple Buy reiterations outweighing Hold stances. Notable supportive opinions include Citi’s Andrew Kaplowitz maintaining a Buy rating with a USD 70.00 price target on January 13, 2026, and Mizuho Securities’ Brett Linzey reiterating Buy with targets of USD 75.00 on November 27, 2025 and USD 80.00 on November 14, 2025; RBC Capital’s Deane Dray also maintained Buy with a USD 75.00 target on November 10, 2025. Hold ratings, including Oppenheimer’s Noah Kaye and Bank of America Securities’ Andrew Obin, were fewer relative to Buy calls within the period.The bullish contingent emphasizes revenue durability in core Climate Solutions, pricing discipline, and service attachment rates that could underpin margin resilience despite forecasted EBIT and EPS declines. Analysts highlight the prior-quarter EPS beat as a positive signal of execution quality and cost control, suggesting that consensus may be conservative into the February 05, 2026 Pre-Market print. Commentary from these institutions points to the Americas Climate Solutions unit as the strategic fulcrum for sustaining earnings quality, with expectations that backlog conversion and service revenues can temper cyclical volume swings in certain geographies.
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