Forget AMC: Buy These 2 Landlords Instead

seeking alpha2021-06-01

Summary AMC is the new GameStop. It could go way higher before it eventually crashes down, but we are not interested in buying or shorting it. Its landlords will profit and offer much better risk-to-...

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Comments

SebZz
2021-06-01
SebZz
Good
- Charmander:
  +1
Charmander
2021-06-01
Charmander
+1
- SebZz:
  Ok
Asyranilin
2021-06-01
Asyranilin
Good read
Dcagency
2021-06-01
Dcagency
Good [What]
- Charmander:
  +1
kareayam
2021-06-01
kareayam
Gogo
Yukitan
2021-06-01
Yukitan
Super

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Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.\n\nAs I write this, AMC (AMC) is surging by another 40%, putting its share price even higher than earlier this year when the GameStop (GME) short-squeeze occurred:\nData byYCharts\nAs a result, increasingly many Redditors are calling AMC the new GME.\nIn fact, AMC is now more regularly mentioned than GME on wallstreetbets, and with over 10 million registered users pumping it, how high can it go?\nSome see it going all the way to the moon...\n\nsource\nThe stock is up 1,000% since the beginning of the year and the momentum appears to be strong:\n\nThe vaccine deployment has been a success\nThe world is quickly reopening\nBlock-busters are coming back\nWallstreetbets is the biggest it has been\nAnd finally, AMC is more mediatized than ever, which helps its stock, but also it's business just as we reopen theaters.\n\nEven then, I wouldn't touch AMC with a 10-foot pole.\nI wouldn't short it because if there is anything to be learned from this year, it is that you shouldn't underestimate the power of the retail crowd.\nBut I wouldn't buy it either because this is gambling, not investing. AMC is priced at an insane valuation that likely won't be sustained in the long run.\nFortunately, we can still profit from the AMC saga by investing in its landlords.\nThe recent short squeeze has allowed AMC to raise equity at an opportune time and it greatly improves its chances of survival. Moreover, it is currently getting billions worth of free promotion as everybody is talking about AMC. This heavy promotion, coupled with the reopening of theaters, should lead to a strong recovery.\nAs such, we think that AMC's landlord will soon start collecting rent payments, as well as late payments for the missed rents of the past year.\nBelow, we highlight two of our Top Picks to profit from AMC's recovery:\nEPR Properties (EPR)\nEPR Properties(EPR) generates 18% of its revenue from AMC and another ~30% from other movie theater tenants. The rest of its revenue comes from other experiential properties such as golf complexes, ski areas, and water parks:\n\nsource\nAt the onset of the pandemic, its rent collection rate collapsed to the lowest level in the company's history as its tenants were forced to close properties.\nNot surprisingly, it hurt the company's market sentiment, and caused its share price to drop from ~$80 per share to just $48 today:\nData byYCharts\nBut now the company is at an inflection point.\nIts rent collection rates have already bounced back to nearly 80%, and by the end of this month, they expect >95% of their properties to be open.\nThis should push rent collection rates to near-100% in the 3rd quarter and allow the company to reinstate a dividend:\n\nsource\nThat's very good news for EPR shareholders and should serve as a strong catalyst to the stock moving forward.\nRight now, EPR is priced at 11x expected normalized AFFO, which is nearly 2x lower than some of its high-quality net lease peers. That remains a great value and as EPR recovers from this crisis, reinstates the dividend, and returns to growth, it is reasonable to expect a repricing in the 15-20x range.\nThis is especially true when you consider that the post-covid world will favor EPR's experiential properties. As McKinsey recently noted: \"As consumer confidence returns, so will spending, with 'revenge shopping' sweeping through sectors as pent-up demand is unleashed... The bounce back will likely emphasize those businesses that have a communal element such as entertainment venues.\"\nMacerich (MAC)\nMacerich(MAC) is the owner of the highest quality mall portfolio in the US. These are highly urban mixed-use retail properties with large entertainment components, including AMC movie theaters:\n\nsource\nUnlike EPR, MAC does not generate much of its revenue from AMC.\nHowever, the movie theaters take a lot of space and affect MAC's investor sentiment because many investors fear that these theaters will be vacated and require significant reinvestments to be released to other uses.\nTherefore, a stronger AMC benefits MAC. As it survives and recovers, it should boost MAC's market sentiment.\nMoreover, as more people go to theaters, it also benefits MAC's other tenants. You don't go to a mall just to watch a movie. You may plan your trip around the movie, but you then also go shopping and dining. Therefore, the recovery of one tenant ends benefits many others, compounding the impact on MAC's profitability:\n\nsource\nEven ignoring the positive impact of AMC's survival, we have good reasons to be optimistic because:\n\nThe leasing activity is nearly as strong as before the crisis and points to a rapid recovery in occupancy rates.\nIts portfolio-wide sales per square foot are already higher than pre-pandemic.\nNearly all 2021 lease expirations are already handled. 70% are committed and the remaining 30% are under LOI.\nRent collection rates have recovered to 94% and trending positively.\nIts tenant watchlist is the shortest in many years.\n\nMAC owns the best properties in its peer group and it is well-reflected in its rapidly recovering fundamentals. Even then, it is still priced at just $16, which is very far off from the $95 per share that Simon (SPG) offered to pay for it back in 2015.\nNow, I understand that there has been some dilution since then, but even taking that into account, MAC appears deeply undervalued and poised for a strong recovery in the post-pandemic world. This is not without risks of course, but we like the risk-to-reward.\nBottom Line\nAMC has for a long time withheld rent payments, but with its increasingly likely survival and strong expected recovery in movie-going, we expect rent payments to soon resume, and this should benefit its landlords.\nThe point here is that you don't need to take crazy risks to profit from AMC's recent saga. Its landlords will indirectly benefit from it, and yet, they remain priced at much more reasonable valuations, which we expect to increase as their market sentiment 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