On September 21, international spot gold failed to break through the key psychological level of 4400, reflecting the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" market dynamic. While expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes typically pressure gold, the actual confirmation of a hike often triggers a rally in the precious metal, a pattern that has consistently played out in past cycles.
The so-called "golden September and silver October" period is characterized by extreme volatility, with gold experiencing sharp two-way swings and aggressive price sweeps. This window may indeed lay the groundwork for a bottom structure, but patience will be required, as the genuine upward trend is unlikely to commence until January next year. With the rate hike cycle already underway, any further Fed action or hawkish rhetoric will likely weigh on gold, as the strong dollar remains the protective moat for US Treasuries, while both rate hikes and quantitative tightening serve to reduce dollar liquidity.
Looking ahead, the downward consolidation trend may extend through the end of October, with the psychological support at the 4000 level potentially being tested once again. Investors would be wise to exercise patience, as the current lows do not yet represent a definitive technical bottom. While some upside momentum may be seen at the start of this trading week, gold must establish a firm foothold above the 4415 level to open the door for further price appreciation. On the downside, the 4330 support level remains robust, with prices likely to oscillate within this range in a whipsaw fashion, as the most significant monthly move has already occurred.
From a technical perspective, the recent rebound in gold prices appears to be more of a short-term sentiment fix than a trend reversal. The trajectory of the US dollar continues to serve as the primary determinant capping gold's upside potential, with sustained dollar strength limiting any meaningful price appreciation. In the near term, gold is expected to maintain a wide-ranging consolidation pattern, with intense long-short battles amplifying short-term fluctuations.
On the weekly chart, the previous three consecutive bearish candles have decisively concluded, with this week's long lower shadow candle establishing solid support at the bottom and ending the short-term downtrend. The Bollinger Bands are contracting and flattening, signaling a phase of accumulation and consolidation, with the medium-term bias leaning mildly bullish within the broader 4230-4450 range. The moving average system is gradually converging and turning upward, providing underlying support for future gold price advances.
On the daily chart, the trend appears stable and robust. Gold has maintained a position above the short-term moving average cluster, with higher lows and ascending highs forming a textbook ascending structure, signaling a clear short-term bullish bias. The primary constraint on further gains rests in the formidable resistance zone between 4445 and 4450, which is currently limiting upside expansion.
For intraday trading, the immediate focus will be on the tight 4390-4350 range. Until a breakout occurs, a small stop-loss strategy of selling at highs and buying at lows within this range is advisable. An upward breakout would warrant following the trend with long positions toward the 4440 resistance level; should prices stall at this level, a reversal to short positions may be considered. Conversely, a downside break would target the 4335 support, where a stabilizing bounce could present another buying opportunity. The ultimate strong support sits at 4310, which remains an attractive zone for accumulation on dips.
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