On December 22, the Guotai Junan Futures 2026 Annual Strategy Conference, under Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., commenced grandly in Hangzhou. Centered on the theme "Riding the Momentum, Innovating the Future," the event brought together industry experts, scholars, investment institutions, and corporate representatives to delve into macro trends, industrial upgrades, asset allocation, and derivatives market development. Jiang Tao, Chairman of Guotai Junan Futures and General Manager of Guotai Haitong Securities Shanghai Branch, delivered opening remarks, while Wang Jixiang, Vice President of Guotai Junan Futures and Director of its Research Institute, moderated the main forum.
At the main forum, distinguished speakers included Sheng Songcheng, Dean of the China Chief Economists Forum Research Institute, Fang Yi, Chief Strategist of Guotai Haitong Securities, and Wang Xiao, Research Director of Guotai Junan Futures.
Sheng Songcheng, Professor of Economics and Finance at CEIBS and Dean of the China Chief Economists Forum Research Institute, presented on "China's Economic Performance and Policy Trends Post-Fourth Plenum." He noted stable economic operations but emphasized the need for sustained policy support to bolster recovery. He advocated balancing investment and consumption during high-quality development, maintaining proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies, while monitoring potential impacts of RMB appreciation on asset performance.
Fang Yi, in his speech titled "China’s 'Transition Bull': New Peaks Ahead," reiterated his bullish outlook on A-shares, first proposed in late 2024. He asserted that China’s "Transition Bull" rally is far from over, with equities poised for further highs. From 2025 onward, capital market reforms and economic restructuring will synergize, epitomizing this phase. The Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming 4,000—a milestone not seen in a decade—marks a pivotal step, not the endpoint. Fang highlighted the dismantling of three historical valuation drags: Sino-U.S. tensions, economic visibility declines, and balance sheet contractions. With shifting fundamentals, lower risk-free yields, reforms, and reduced uncertainty, capital markets now wield unprecedented consensus-building power.
Wang Xiao, Research Director and Macro Strategy Lead at Guotai Junan Futures, shared insights in "Riding the Momentum, Innovating the Future: 2026 Derivatives Market Outlook." He projected a geopolitical détente in 2026, with economic recovery hinging on policy implementation, domestic-international synergies, and organic healing. While asset prices may anticipate 2027’s fundamental shifts, 2026 will be a year of adjustment. Wang spotlighted divergences—and potential convergences—between high-growth sectors and traditional cyclical industries amid K-shaped recoveries in major economies like China and the U.S. He favored ROE-driven revaluations amid structural reforms and flagged polarities in commodities: record highs for precious/non-ferrous metals versus depressed energy/ferrous prices. Though K-shaped trends persist, price reversals warrant vigilance. He also cautioned against slower-than-expected geopolitical easing and highlighted inflation synchronization risks.
Wang later hosted the panel "Structural Opportunities: Cross-Border Arbitrage and Diversified Strategies," where four experts debated 2026’s macro outlook, asset allocation, fixed income, and quant market evolution across markets and sectors.
The two-day conference featured one main forum and nine thematic sessions covering non-ferrous/precious metals, energy/chemicals, renewables, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, and asset allocation, fostering in-depth debates among analysts and guests.
A conference replay will be available on December 29.
Comments