Deutsche Bank recently released an outlook report for the U.S. consumer finance sector in 2026, focusing on the upcoming 2026 performance guidance from seven companies under its coverage. The bank noted that this guidance often has a greater impact on stock prices than the companies' actual fourth-quarter results. It specifically highlighted that its most significant divergence from market consensus centers on SoFi Technologies Inc.'s (SOFI.US) forthcoming 2026 earnings per share (EPS) guidance. Deutsche Bank believes market expectations are significantly too low and anticipates that SoFi's guidance will far exceed the consensus. However, even in the event of a positive surprise, the bank expressed skepticism about whether SoFi, trading at approximately 40 times its 2026 estimated price-to-earnings ratio, can continue to offer substantial upside potential. The other six firms covered in the report include American Express (AXP.US), Synchrony Financial (SYF.US), Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY.US), OneMain Holdings, Inc (OMF.US), SLM Corp (SLM.US), and Navient Corp (NAVI.US). The following are Deutsche Bank's specific outlooks for the 2026 guidance of these seven companies:
American Express: Deutsche Bank stated that compared to American Express's long-term goal of achieving over 10% revenue growth, it expects growth to moderate in the short term (fiscal year 2026) to 8.5% year-over-year, which is below the market expectation of 9.0%. This is attributed to a high year-over-year comparable base for net card fee income and the incremental benefits from Platinum card upgrades being realized gradually throughout the year. Nonetheless, the bank expects its diluted EPS to reach $17.75, slightly above the market consensus of $17.56, aligning with management's medium-to-long-term target of double-digit EPS growth. Additionally, marketing expenses are projected to increase by 10.7% year-over-year, with variable customer engagement (VCE) spending growing by 8.9%.
Synchrony Financial: Benefiting from its partnership with Walmart (WMT.US), adjustments to credit measures, and a lower comparable base in 2025, Deutsche Bank forecasts Synchrony Financial's loan receivables to grow by 4.75% year-over-year in 2026, significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.14%. However, due to conservative assumptions regarding net interest margin (NIM) expansion, the bank projects its net revenue at $15.7 billion, below the market expectation of $16.5 billion. Meanwhile, the net charge-off rate (NCOs) is expected to stabilize at 5.60%, largely in line with market expectations, and the efficiency ratio is anticipated to remain around 33.10%.
Ally Financial Inc.: After two years of managing loan growth in response to regulatory changes, 2026 is expected to mark the first year of core loan business expansion for Ally Financial Inc.. The bank forecasts its average earning assets to grow by 1.7% year-over-year in 2026, with NIM rising to 3.72%, slightly above the market expectation of 3.70%. NCOs for the retail auto business are projected to reach 1.85%, indicating continued improvement in credit quality. Furthermore, adjusted other revenue is expected to increase by 3.6% year-over-year, with operating expense growth controlled at 0.2%.
OneMain Holdings, Inc: Deutsche Bank expects OneMain Holdings, Inc's managed receivables to grow by 6.55% year-over-year in 2026, below the market expectation of 8.00%. This is primarily due to saturation in personal loan market penetration, limiting growth contributions from auto and credit card businesses. Revenue is projected to increase by 6.15% year-over-year, slightly below the market expectation of 6.53%. NCOs are forecast at 7.51%, higher than the market expectation of 7.27%, although management's long-term goal is to reduce consumer loan NCOs to below 7%. The operating expense ratio is expected to be 6.45%.
SoFi Technologies Inc.: As the company providing the most comprehensive guidance metrics, SoFi Technologies Inc.'s management has reaffirmed its 2026 EPS target range of $0.55 to $0.80. Deutsche Bank's forecast midpoint is $0.67, substantially higher than the current market consensus of $0.58. Benefiting from its Lending Platform Business (LPB), student loan refinancing, and expansion in housing loan market share, the bank expects its 2026 adjusted net revenue to reach $4.533 billion, with member growth of 3.62 million and loan growth of $5.001 billion. Additionally, non-lending business revenue already accounts for 56% of the total, indicating continuous business structure optimization. The application of AI and blockchain technology is expected to lay a foundation for long-term growth.
SLM Corp: Driven by the full implementation of PLUS program reforms, Deutsche Bank expects SLM Corp's private education loan originations to reach $8.5 billion in 2026, with potential incremental partnerships potentially pushing this figure to $9.3 billion. NCOs are expected to stabilize at 2.10%, within the long-term range of "high-single-digit 1% to low-single-digit 2%". Due to increased strategic investments, non-interest expenses are projected to rise to $772 million, leading to a decrease in EPS to $2.63. However, management anticipates a return to high-single-digit growth starting in 2027, with the potential for double-digit growth in the long term.
Navient Corp: Navient Corp is currently in a business transformation phase, aiming to shift more towards consumer credit through its Earnest subsidiary. The bank expects its private education loan NIM to rise to 2.81% in 2026, with the FFELP business NIM reaching 0.78%. Benefiting from market opportunities arising from the cancellation of the GRAD PLUS program, private loan originations are expected to achieve significant growth. Core EPS is projected to be $1.15. Furthermore, ongoing cost-cutting initiatives are expected to drive down operating expenses, creating room for profit growth.
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