The recent decline in the share price of Xunce Technology (HKEX: 03317) from a peak of HK$382.8 to around HK$103 appears to have reached a turning point. The company has addressed market concerns with tangible progress in its business operations. A key development was the signing of a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Beijing International Big Data Exchange on June 29th, following a previous agreement with the Shenzhen Data Exchange. This establishes a strategic "south-north" national-level data exchange platform layout. This, combined with a 320% month-on-month surge in Token ARR for May, the lifting of post-IPO lock-up restrictions, and the approval of a share buyback authorization, is building a solid foundation for a potential rebound.
Lock-up Expiry: Removal of a Major Overhang
Xunce Technology listed on December 30, 2025, at HK$48 per share. Its stock price surged to a historical high of HK$382.8 driven by the AI boom before retracing. The cornerstone investors from the IPO received approximately 6.41 million shares with a six-month lock-up period, which expired on June 29, 2026. Based on the pre-expiry share price, the locked-up shares were valued at around HK$765 million. The lock-up expiry became effective on June 30th, with the stock trading around 5.19 million shares for a total turnover of approximately HK$582 million, closing up 2.0% at HK$121.8. The opening of this lock-up window signifies that the major short-term uncertainty has been realized as actual trading activity, allowing the share price to increasingly reflect fundamental valuation logic now that the selling pressure has been released.
Beijing Data Exchange Partnership: Evolving from "Product" to "Ecosystem" with National-Level Endorsement
The formal agreement with the Beijing International Big Data Exchange, announced on June 29th, represents more than a simple business addition. The Beijing exchange is a leading domestic data trading infrastructure and a key international hub for cross-border data flow. This partnership provides a national-level endorsement and promotional channel for Xunce's TokenOS and its ARR billing model. In turn, Xunce's products empower enterprises on the Beijing exchange platform, addressing the "last mile" challenge in AI implementation and building a mutually beneficial ecosystem for data suppliers, technology platforms, and end-users. The core of the collaboration lies in deeply integrating Xunce's tokenization capabilities with the Beijing exchange's compliance registration and trusted circulation capabilities. This enables enterprises to package and measure their private data compliantly and reliably via TokenOS, facilitating the transformation of data elements from resources to assets and then to capital. The cooperation focuses on four key areas: the construction of vertical token factories (for sectors like healthcare, finance, and education), embodied intelligence data circulation (for humanoid and specialized robots), digital assetization service systems, and a standardized biopharmaceutical database. Xunce, as the lead unit of the token-specific working group in this field, is collaborating to build this standardized industry database to empower the digital upgrade of the pharmaceutical industry.
Building the Foundation for a Rebound: Four Key Positive Signals
With the lock-up overhang removed and the share buyback authorization approved, Xunce is establishing a base for recovery from its recent lows, with multiple fundamental signals turning positive. The first signal is the confirmation of a profitability inflection point. Revenue for the second half of 2025 surged to RMB 1.087 billion, a 449% increase from the first half, with the company achieving its first adjusted net profit of RMB 50.13 million, officially crossing the half-year profitability threshold. Customer ARPU skyrocketed 105.5% year-on-year to RMB 5.59 million. The second signal is the growth in ARR. Token call ARR for May 2026 surged 320% month-on-month, with the proportion of token-based paid revenue climbing rapidly. Management guidance targets this proportion to reach 20%-30% by year-end, indicating a critical shift in the business model from project-based to token-consumption-based billing. The third signal is the implementation of the share buyback. The buyback authorization was approved at the shareholders' meeting in June 2026, allowing the board to repurchase up to 10% of the issued H shares, demonstrating management's clear confidence in the current valuation. The fourth signal is the intensive coverage by institutional analysts. Four major brokerages—CICC, Huatai Securities, China Securities, and Haitong International—initiated or upgraded coverage within a span of three weeks, with the highest target price reaching HK$240. Compared to the current market capitalization of approximately HK$33.2 billion, this suggests significant room for valuation recovery.
The core rationale for the anticipated rebound is underpinned by a triple-layered competitive moat: millisecond-level real-time data processing capability, irreplicable know-how accumulated from over a decade of deep cultivation in high-barrier industries, and a customer retention rate exceeding 90% driven by products deeply embedded in client workflows. Against the backdrop of a doubling in performance, the rapid rise in token-based revenue contribution, and the establishment of dual national data exchange centers in the north and south, Xunce is now positioned at a juncture for a potential "double-click" of performance delivery and valuation re-rating. The market is in the process of re-pricing the company's transition from a "potential stock" to a "frontrunner."
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